01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Trenčín or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Slovak Super League7°5 km/h
Läs på svenska
SkalicaLow block & direct0–2
TrenčínCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Trenčín (37%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.76 (+15 %)
Skalica vs Trenčín · Slovak Super League
1 · Skalica 33%X 31%37% Trenčín · 2
33%
31%
37%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Skalica vs Trenčín (Slovak Super League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Skalica win 33%, draw 31%, Trenčín win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Skalica 1.36, Trenčín 1.46. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Skalica or draw 63%, Trenčín or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Skalica – Trenčín
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Trenčín's historical edge over Skalica in their past meetings is clear, winning four of the eight encounters since 2023. While this small sample slightly tilts toward the visitors, current form tips the scales differently. Trenčín is on a four-game losing streak, contrasting sharply with Skalica's slight edge in points this season, having accrued nine compared to Trenčín's five.
Despite the points difference, the underlying metrics suggest a more nuanced picture. Trenčín's expected goals (xG) per match stands at 1.5, significantly higher than Skalica's 0.94. Moreover, the visitors also have a more robust defense, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.7 compared to Skalica's leaky 2.1. The expected goals model gives Trenčín a slight advantage, reflected in their higher expected points tally of 11.0 versus Skalica's 9.1.
The most likely scorelines according to the model are 1-1 at 12% and a 1-2 win for Trenčín at 9%. With a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to find the net, an open game seems likely. However, Trenčín's counter-attacking style against Skalica's direct approach could mean a tactical battle where the visitors might edge out through their superior efficiency in front of goal.
For bettors, the value lies with Trenčín at odds of 3.0 via Betsafe and Nordicbet, where the model sees a 10% edge. There's also a decent angle on the draw at odds of 3.45 with Betsafe, providing a 6% edge. Given the numbers, the slight lean is toward a narrow Trenčín victory, potentially 1-2, in a match where both sides are likely to score.
SkalicaForm LDLLD
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #12xP/match #12Points #9
Key players
- Erik DanielRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
- Philip Obinna OnyedikaFxG 0.45 · xT 0.08
- Martin CernekCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
TrenčínForm WLLLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #5xP/match #10Points #12
Key players
- Richard KrizanCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.03
- Markus PoomCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
- Pablo González JuárezRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.14
Final score
0 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Skalica 33% · Draw 31% · Trenčín 37%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - TrenčínBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,53fair 8,85-15 %
MissMatchresultat - MFK SkalicaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,50fair 10,21-46 %
MissMatch prediction: Skalica – Trenčín
Predicted score matrix
Trenčín →
Skalica →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–18.4%
0–26.4%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–07.7%
1–112.2%
1–28.6%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.5%
2–18.0%
2–25.9%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.6%
3–22.7%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,36–1,46
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.22EV+3%
Over 2,554%
@1.67
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Trenčín or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Eynel Domingos Rocha Soares to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Eynel Domingos Rocha Soares to score21%
- Lukáš Skovajsa to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw31% probability@3.76PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- 2 · Trenčín37% probability@3.01PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.50LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Skalica | X | 2 · Trenčín |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.12 | EV+ 4% 3.40 | EV+ 6% 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | EV+ 7% 3.50 | EV+ 4% 2.85 |
| Nordicbet | 2.12 | EV+ 4% 3.40 | EV+ 6% 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | EV+ 15% 3.76 | EV+ 10% 3.01 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:14
Odds movement
10 %
46 %41 %
2.20 → 2.19
X+4 %
28 %23 %
3.61 → 3.76
2+2 %
34 %29 %
2.96 → 3.01
Over 2,5+3 %
60 %55 %
1.63 → 1.67
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesSkalica 2Draw 2Trenčín 4
Goals: 8–9 (⌀ 2,1)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Trencin dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
- Trencin have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Skalica
Trenčín
Skalica (12–20)
Trenčín (10–21)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Skalica
Trenčín
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Skalica
Trenčín
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Skalica | Trenčín |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 5 |
| xPoints | 9.1 | 11 |
| xG per match | 0.94 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| Playing style | Skalica | Trenčín |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 0.82 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 243 | 363 |
| Passes against per match | 360 | 319 |
| Switches of play per match | 14 | 22.2 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Skalica | Trenčín |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| Other | Skalica | Trenčín |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Richard Ludha (Skalica) | Andrija Katic (Trenčín) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 26 |
| Save % | 60% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 32% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Skalica vs Trenčín according to our model?
The model gives Trenčín a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Skalica 33%, draw 31%, Trenčín 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Skalica vs Trenčín?
The model expects 1.36 goals (xG) for Skalica and 1.46 for Trenčín, 2.82 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Skalica or draw (1X) 63%, Trenčín or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 69%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.