01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Slovan Bratislava or draw (X2)62%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Slovak Super LeagueŠtadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava9°9 km/h
Läs på svenska
Spartak TrnavaPossession control0–3
Slovan BratislavaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Slovan Bratislava (37%)Best value by the model: 1 · Spartak Trnava @ 3.10 (+12 %)
Spartak Trnava vs Slovan Bratislava · Slovak Super League
1 · Spartak Trnava 36%X 27%37% Slovan Bratislava · 2
36%
27%
37%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Spartak Trnava vs Slovan Bratislava (Slovak Super League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Spartak Trnava win 36%, draw 27%, Slovan Bratislava win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Spartak Trnava 1.45, Slovan Bratislava 1.40. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Spartak Trnava or draw 63%, Slovan Bratislava or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Spartak Trnava – Slovan Bratislava
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A razor-thin margin separates Spartak Trnava and Slovan Bratislava in the model's eyes, with the visitors holding a slight edge at 37% to Trnava's 36%. Yet, the betting markets have overlooked this balance, offering potentially lucrative odds of 3.15 on a home win via Betsafe and Nordicbet, providing a noteworthy 14% edge according to the model.
Trnava's consistency in finding the net, evidenced by their ten-match scoring streak, aligns with an expected goals tally that positions them closely with Slovan. However, the head-to-head record favors Bratislava, who have claimed five wins in their last eight encounters — although this small sample sizes its weight against current form. The typical 1-1 scoreline prediction, with a 12% chance, underscores a likely tight affair.
Despite a 54% chance for over 2.5 goals, the disciplined nature of both sides, coupled with their defensive strengths (Trnava's xGA: 1.0, Slovan's xGA: 0.95), hints at a contained contest. The under 3.5 goals offer at 1.47 through Betsafe, though without edge, plays into the expectation of a measured match. The smartest play remains backing Trnava to edge a narrow 2-1, leveraging the bookmaker's oversight for value.
Spartak TrnavaForm LDWDW
League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #8xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Marek UjlakyCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
- Erik SaboCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
- Martin MikovicLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Slovan BratislavaForm LLDWD
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #1xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Kevin WimmerCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.39
- Danylo IgnatenkoCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
- Cesar BlackmanRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
Final score
0 – 3
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Spartak Trnava 36% · Draw 27% · Slovan Bratislava 37%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Spartak TrnavaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,47fair 9,01-6 %
MissMatchresultat - Slovan BratislavaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,95fair 9,54-38 %
MissMatch prediction: Spartak Trnava – Slovan Bratislava
Predicted score matrix
Slovan Bratislava →
Spartak Trnava →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–17.8%
0–25.7%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–08.0%
1–112.1%
1–28.2%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.5%
2–26.0%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.1%
3–22.9%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,45–1,40
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.19EV+0%
Over 2,554%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Slovan Bratislava or draw (X2)62%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Andraž Šporar to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Andraž Šporar to score28%
- Samuel Kozlovský to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Spartak Trnava36% probability@3.10PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- 1 · Spartak Trnava36% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Spartak Trnava36% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Spartak Trnava | X | 2 · Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 7% 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 5% 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 7% 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 12% 3.10 | EV+ 2% 3.81 | 2.13 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
1-5 %
32 %27 %
3.27 → 3.10
X0 %
27 %22 %
3.80 → 3.81
2+7 %
48 %43 %
1.99 → 2.13
Over 2,5+1 %
59 %54 %
1.66 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesSpartak Trnava 1Draw 2Slovan Bratislava 5
Goals: 6–14 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Slovan Bratislava dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
- Spartak Trnava have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Spartak Trnava
Slovan Bratislava
Spartak Trnava (24–11)
Slovan Bratislava (21–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Spartak Trnava
Slovan Bratislava
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Spartak Trnava
Slovan Bratislava
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Spartak Trnava | Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 17 |
| xPoints | 17.2 | 13.5 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 0.95 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Spartak Trnava | Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 1.8 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 0.69 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 360 | 503 |
| Passes against per match | 299 | 213 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.2 | 34.8 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Spartak Trnava | Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| Other | Spartak Trnava | Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Martin Vantruba (Spartak Trnava) | Aleksandar Popovic (Slovan Bratislava) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 36 | 10 |
| Save % | 77% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 60% | 71% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Spartak Trnava vs Slovan Bratislava according to our model?
The model gives Slovan Bratislava a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Spartak Trnava 36%, draw 27%, Slovan Bratislava 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Spartak Trnava vs Slovan Bratislava?
The model expects 1.45 goals (xG) for Spartak Trnava and 1.40 for Slovan Bratislava, 2.85 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Spartak Trnava or draw (1X) 63%, Slovan Bratislava or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.