La LigaSan Mamés, Bilbao20°8 km/h

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    Athletic ClubAthletic ClubPossession & high press
    0–0
    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo AlavesCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Deportivo Alaves (41%)

    Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alaves · La Liga

    1 · Athletic Club 30%X 29%41% Deportivo Alaves · 2

    Analysis: Athletic Club – Deportivo Alaves

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Deportivo Alaves enters this fixture with a model-backed 41% chance of winning, a noteworthy edge over Athletic Club’s 30%. The visitors' counter-attacking style contrasts sharply with the hosts' possession and high-press approach. This clash of tactics sets the stage for a tense matchup, but the model’s lean towards Alaves signals their recent form and defensive solidity might overpower Athletic's home field advantage.

    Despite Athletic Club's historical edge in their head-to-head with two wins, one draw, and one loss since 2022, the small sample size makes it a less reliable predictor than current form and expected goals. Alaves has accrued more points and slightly outperformed in xPoints, hinting at their current superior efficiency. Athletic, however, leads in xG per match, indicating a potential to create opportunities that they must convert if they want to thwart the visitors' ambitions.

    For betting angles, the standout is the value in the away win at odds of 5.45 with Betsson, offering a substantial 124% edge according to models. Given the probable tight scoreline, with 1-1 as the most likely outcome, betting on under 2.5 goals at a 54% chance could also offer a prudent play. However, with both teams likely to find the net, this will be a test of clinical finishing and tactical discipline.

    Athletic ClubAthletic Club
    Form LLWWD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #5xP/match #4Points #12
    Key players
    • Iñaki WilliamsFxG 0.58 · xT 0.04
    • Aitor ParedesCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
    • Nico WilliamsLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.53
    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo Alaves
    Form DWWLL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #3xT #6xP/match #3Points #6
    Key players
    • Mariano DiazFxG 0.35 · xT 0.12
    • Lucas BoyeFxG 0.29 · xT 0.07
    • Toni MartinezFxG 0.32 · xT 0.12
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Athletic Club 30% · Draw 29% · Deportivo Alaves 41%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - AlavésBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 21,09fair 11,42+85 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Athletic Club BilbaoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,00fair 13,11-54 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Athletic Club – Deportivo Alaves

    Predicted score matrix

    Deportivo Alaves →
    Athletic Club →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–110.1%
    0–26.8%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–09.4%
    1–113.1%
    1–28.3%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–05.9%
    2–17.8%
    2–25.1%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–02.4%
    3–13.1%
    3–22.1%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.0-08%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,22–1,31
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @2.01EV+1%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.98

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Deportivo Alaves or draw (X2)66%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.01

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Deportivo Alaves or draw (X2)66%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Mariano Díaz Mejía to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Ian Luccas Baroni Boetto to score26%
    • Antonio Blanco Conde to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Deportivo Alaves41% probability@5.65PinnacleEV+132%reference odds
    • 2 · Deportivo Alaves41% probability@5.40BetssonEV+122%reference odds
    • 2 · Deportivo Alaves41% probability@5.40NordicbetEV+122%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Athletic ClubX2 · Deportivo Alaves
    Bet3651.73
    EV+ 3%
    3.50
    EV+ 95%
    4.75
    Betsafe1.65
    EV+ 13%
    3.85
    EV+ 120%
    5.35
    Betsson1.62
    EV+ 13%
    3.85
    EV+ 122%
    5.40
    Nordicbet1.62
    EV+ 13%
    3.85
    EV+ 122%
    5.40
    Pinnacle1.64
    EV+ 18%
    4.01
    EV+ 132%
    5.65

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 2.02 to 1.88 (−7%).

    1-1 %
    61 %56 %

    1.65 → 1.64

    X+3 %
    26 %21 %

    3.91 → 4.01

    2+13 %
    20 %15 %

    5.01 → 5.65

    Over 2,5-7 %
    52 %47 %

    2.02 → 1.88

    Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Athletic Club 2Draw 1Deportivo Alaves 1
    Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Athletic Club
    Deportivo Alaves
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Athletic Club (7–6)
    Deportivo Alaves (11–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Athletic Club
    Aymeric Laporte: 298 passningar, xT 0.5LaporteYuri Berchiche: 198 passningar, xT 0.24BerchicheYeray Álvarez López: 192 passningar, xT 0.21LópezUnai Simon: 168 passningar, xT 0.32SimonBeñat Gerenabarrena Zendoia: 144 passningar, xT 0.09ZendoiaAitor Paredes: 130 passningar, xT 0.13ParedesJesús Areso: 112 passningar, xT 0.41AresoIñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 110 passningar, xT 0.71GalarretaOihan Sancet: 100 passningar, xT 0.22SancetPeio Canales Urtasun: 93 passningar, xT 0.14UrtasunAlex Berenguer: 89 passningar, xT 0.53Berenguer
    Deportivo Alaves
    Antonio Blanco: 166 passningar, xT 0.12BlancoVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 123 passningar, xT 0.1KoskiAbderrahmane Rebbach: 120 passningar, xT 0.09RebbachNahuel Tenaglia: 115 passningar, xT 0.52TenagliaJonny Otto: 115 passningar, xT 0.28OttoPablo Ibanez: 103 passningar, xT 0.16IbanezAntonio Sivera: 98 passningar, xT 0.25SiveraDenis Suarez: 92 passningar, xT 0.22SuarezÁngel Pérez: 82 passningar, xT 1.66PérezLucas Boye: 59 passningar, xT 0.14BoyeNicolás Valentini: 52 passningar, xT 0.36Valentini
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Athletic Club
    Aymeric Laporte: 298 passningar, xT 0.5LaporteYuri Berchiche: 198 passningar, xT 0.24BerchicheYeray Álvarez López: 192 passningar, xT 0.21LópezUnai Simon: 168 passningar, xT 0.32SimonBeñat Gerenabarrena Zendoia: 144 passningar, xT 0.09ZendoiaAitor Paredes: 130 passningar, xT 0.13ParedesJesús Areso: 112 passningar, xT 0.41AresoIñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 110 passningar, xT 0.71GalarretaOihan Sancet: 100 passningar, xT 0.22SancetPeio Canales Urtasun: 93 passningar, xT 0.14UrtasunAlex Berenguer: 89 passningar, xT 0.53Berenguer
    Deportivo Alaves
    Antonio Blanco: 166 passningar, xT 0.12BlancoVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 123 passningar, xT 0.1KoskiAbderrahmane Rebbach: 120 passningar, xT 0.09RebbachNahuel Tenaglia: 115 passningar, xT 0.52TenagliaJonny Otto: 115 passningar, xT 0.28OttoPablo Ibanez: 103 passningar, xT 0.16IbanezAntonio Sivera: 98 passningar, xT 0.25SiveraDenis Suarez: 92 passningar, xT 0.22SuarezÁngel Pérez: 82 passningar, xT 1.66PérezLucas Boye: 59 passningar, xT 0.14BoyeNicolás Valentini: 52 passningar, xT 0.36Valentini

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAthletic ClubDeportivo Alaves
    Points710
    xPoints7.89.6
    xG per match1.61.2
    xGA per match1.20.96
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.09
    Playing styleAthletic ClubDeportivo Alaves
    Build-up efficiency0.310.33
    Field tilt0.480.45
    xT per match1.21.1
    xTA per match0.880.75
    Won balls, offensive half2331
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.230.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.180.25
    Entries into the box per match1314
    Entries into the box against1210
    Pass completion %0.780.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.65
    Passes per match398269
    Passes against per match430365
    Switches of play per match26.120.2
    Long balls per match3128
    Set piecesAthletic ClubDeportivo Alaves
    xG from free kicks0.110.07
    Corners per match6.54.8
    Corners against per match5.75.1
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.430.58
    OtherAthletic ClubDeportivo Alaves
    Throw-in control0.760.71
    The goalkeepersUnai Simon (Athletic Club)Antonio Sivera (Deportivo Alaves)
    Saves1717
    Save %74%74%
    xG prevented46%39%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Athletic Club
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Deportivo Alaves
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alaves according to our model?

    The model gives Deportivo Alaves a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Athletic Club 30%, draw 29%, Deportivo Alaves 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.