Deportivo Alaves vs Atlético de Madrid Prediction: Away win 56% (10 Oct 2026)

La Liga10 October 2026Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz11°0,6 mm12 km/h

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Deportivo AlavesCounter-attacks & crosses

Atlético de MadridPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Atlético de Madrid (56%)

1 · Deportivo Alaves 19%X 25%56% Atlético de Madrid · 2

19%

25%

56%

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Analysis: Deportivo Alaves – Atlético de Madrid

Marcus Johansson · 3 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Atlético de Madrid's 56% probability of winning against Deportivo Alaves underscores their favorable position heading into this fixture. The visitors are riding high on a three-match winning streak, a testament to their consistent form and tactical solidity. In contrast, Alaves will rely on counter-attacks and crosses, hoping to disrupt Atlético's high-pressing, possession-dominant style. The tension lies in whether Alaves can breach Atlético's robust defensive setup, which has been conceding less than a goal per match on average.

While the head-to-head record since 2022 shows a small sample of four matches with no wins for Alaves, it pales in significance compared to current form and expected goals. Atlético's superior xG of 1.7 per match, compared to Alaves' 1.1, highlights their offensive potency. The expected goals against (xGA) figures further tilt the balance, with Atlético's 0.95 per match suggesting a tight defensive performance.

The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1 point to a closely contested match, possibly low-scoring, but the over 2.5 goals probability at 52% hints at room for more. This aligns with both teams' likelihood to score, pegged at 54%. Alaves' counter-attacking strategy may capitalize on any lapses from Atlético's pressing game. Yet, Atlético’s attacking depth, alongside their form, makes them favorites to edge this encounter.

Punters might find value in backing Atlético at 1.85 odds with LeoVegas, given the model's 56% win probability for the visitors. This presents a 4% edge and stands out as a savvy choice for those looking to capitalize on Atlético’s current momentum. With all factors considered, a narrow win for Atlético, such as 1-2, remains among the more plausible outcomes.

Deportivo Alaves

Form WWLLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #4xT #7xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Toni MartinezFxG 0.30 · xT 0.11
Mariano DiazFxG 0.29 · xT 0.12
Lucas BoyeFxG 0.25 · xT 0.06

Atlético de Madrid

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #4xP/match #4Points #2

Key players

Alejandro Grimaldo GarcíaLWBxG 0.36 · xT 0.07
Pablo BarriosCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
Marcos LlorenteRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Deportivo Alaves – Atlético de Madrid

Predicted score matrix

Atlético de Madrid →

Deportivo Alaves →

0–06.7%

0–110.3%

0–28.9%

0–34.9%

0–4+3.0%

1–06.6%

1–111.9%

1–29.6%

1–35.4%

1–4+3.3%

2–03.8%

2–16.3%

2–25.2%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.8%

3–01.4%

3–12.3%

3–21.9%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-110%
3.1-210%
4.0-29%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,09–1,67

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@1.97

Over 2,552%

@1.86

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Atlético de Madrid to win56%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Atlético de Madrid to win56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez to score31%
Antonio Blanco Conde to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Atlético de Madrid56% probability@1.85LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
2 · Atlético de Madrid56% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
2 · Atlético de Madrid56% probability@1.82NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Deportivo Alaves	X	2 · Atlético de Madrid
Betsafe	4.25	3.60	EV+ 3% 1.82
LeoVegas	4.00	3.65	EV+ 4% 1.85
Nordicbet	4.25	3.60	EV+ 3% 1.82

Odds updated 3 Oct, 10:36

Odds movement

10 %

26 %21 %

4.00 → 4.00

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.65

20 %

53 %48 %

1.85 → 1.85

Over 2,5+2 %

54 %49 %

1.77 → 1.80

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Deportivo Alaves 0Draw 2Atlético de Madrid 2

Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

Key facts

Atletico de Madrid come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Deportivo Alaves

Atlético de Madrid

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Deportivo Alaves (11–6)

Atlético de Madrid (16–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Deportivo Alaves

Atlético de Madrid

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Deportivo Alaves

Atlético de Madrid

The teams in numbers

Performance	Deportivo Alaves	Atlético de Madrid
Points	11	16
xPoints	10	11.6
xG per match	1.1	1.7
xGA per match	1.1	0.95
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.08	0.15

Playing style	Deportivo Alaves	Atlético de Madrid
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.4	0.63
xT per match	1	1.3
xTA per match	0.77	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	28	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.27
Entries into the box per match	12	18
Entries into the box against	10	9
Pass completion %	0.72	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.77
Passes per match	262	489
Passes against per match	397	349
Switches of play per match	19.7	35.2
Long balls per match	29	39

Set pieces	Deportivo Alaves	Atlético de Madrid
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.01
Corners per match	4.3	4.9
Corners against per match	5.2	3
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.52

Other	Deportivo Alaves	Atlético de Madrid
Throw-in control	0.72	0.79

The goalkeepers	Antonio Sivera (Deportivo Alaves)	Jan Oblak (Atlético de Madrid)
Saves	24	16
Save %	80%	70%
xG prevented	54%	27%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Deportivo Alaves

Fixtures, form & tips

Atlético de Madrid

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Deportivo Alaves vs Atlético de Madrid according to our model?

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Deportivo Alaves 19%, draw 25%, Atlético de Madrid 56%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.