01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Real Betis to win66%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
La LigaEstadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla20°7 km/h
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Real BetisBalanced & physicalvs
OsasunaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Real Betis (66%)
Real Betis vs Osasuna · La Liga
1 · Real Betis 66%X 20%14% Osasuna · 2
66%
20%
14%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Real Betis – Osasuna
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Real Betis's remarkable streak of scoring in 15 consecutive league matches finds them as firm favorites against Osasuna, with a 66% probability of victory. Despite the small head-to-head sample of just four matches since 2022, Betis remains unbeaten. Their attacking prowess is evident with an expected goals figure of 2.01 for this fixture, compared to the visitors' 0.95. This contrast highlights Betis's strength in converting chances, a significant factor in their offensive consistency.
Both teams share a balanced and physical playing style, but it's Betis's edge in xG per match, at 1.6 versus Osasuna's 1.3, that sets them apart offensively. Despite Osasuna's slightly better defensive metrics, the hosts' consistent goal-scoring form and superior point tally this season further tilt the scales in their favor. The model suggests a tight match, yet offers a nod to a 2-0 or 1-0 victory for Betis, with the possibility of a 1-1 draw.
For bettors, the most compelling angle lies in the value offered by LeoVegas, where Betis is priced at 1.667. With the model assigning a 66% win probability, there’s a notable 10% edge for those backing the hosts. Expect Betis to maintain their scoring streak, likely pushing the total over the 2.5 goal threshold.
Real BetisForm LWWWD
League ranking xG #6xGA #13xT #8xP/match #10Points #3
Key players
- AntonyRWxG 0.40 · xT 0.20
- Abdessamad EzzalzouliLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.30
- Pablo FornalsCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
OsasunaForm WLLLD
League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #15xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- Ante BudimirFxG 0.83 · xT 0.00
- Kike BarjaLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.24
- Raul GarciaFxG 0.24 · xT -0.04
Match prediction: Real Betis – Osasuna
Predicted score matrix
Osasuna →
Real Betis →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–14.7%
0–22.3%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.2%
1–110.2%
1–24.7%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.5%
2–19.9%
2–24.7%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.0%
3–16.6%
3–23.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.6%
4+–15.3%
4+–22.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,01–0,95
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.06
Over 2,557%
@1.78EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Real Betis to win66%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Rodrigo Riquelme Reche to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Rodrigo Riquelme Reche to score27%
- Alejandro Catena Marugán to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Real Betis66% probability@1.68BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- 1 · Real Betis66% probability@1.68NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
- 1 · Real Betis66% probability@1.67LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Real Betis | X | 2 · Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 11% 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 10% 1.67 | 3.95 | 4.75 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 11% 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesReal Betis 2Draw 2Osasuna 0
Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Real Betis Balompie have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Real Betis
Osasuna
Real Betis (9–7)
Osasuna (6–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Real Betis
Osasuna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Real Betis
Osasuna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Real Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 8 |
| xPoints | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.4 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Real Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 0.69 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 446 | 327 |
| Passes against per match | 371 | 411 |
| Switches of play per match | 35.2 | 31 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Real Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 6.9 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.78 |
| Other | Real Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| The goalkeepers | Álvaro Vallés (Real Betis) | Aitor Fernández (Osasuna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 9 |
| Save % | 82% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 69% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Real Betis vs Osasuna according to our model?
The model gives Real Betis a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Real Betis 66%, draw 20%, Osasuna 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.