01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Racing de Santander or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
La LigaEl Sardinero, Santander14°0,6 mm14 km/h
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Racing de SantanderCounter-attacks & crossesvs
ValenciaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Racing de Santander (42%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.60 (+4 %)
Racing de Santander vs Valencia · La Liga
1 · Racing de Santander 42%X 29%29% Valencia · 2
42%
29%
29%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Racing de Santander – Valencia
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A striking figure frames this La Liga matchup: Racing de Santander's 42% win probability against Valencia's 29%, tipping the scales decisively toward the hosts. With a model leaning towards Racing, the numbers suggest a close contest with Racing having the upper hand, especially in scoring potential. The expected goals highlight this advantage, as Santander's 1.60 xG outshines Valencia's 1.31, pointing to a more potent attacking threat from the hosts.
Santander's playing style, focused on counter-attacks and crosses, could exploit Valencia's vulnerabilities. Despite Valencia's physicality and balanced approach, they've struggled, amassing only 4 points compared to Racing's 7. This gap reflects in their xPoints, with Santander again ahead at 8.1 over Valencia's 7.4. Although Valencia's defense is slightly stronger with a lower xGA of 1.6, Santander's attacking edge makes them likely to find the net.
Considering the model's insights, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable scoreline at 12%. However, Santander's chances of edging a 2-1 win at 9% are not far behind. The odds for a draw at 3.6 with LeoVegas present a 4% edge, making it the sharpest betting angle in a game where both teams are expected to score.
Racing de SantanderForm WLWLL
League ranking xG #9xGA #20xT #10xP/match #15Points #16
Key players
- Andres MartinCAMxG 0.79 · xT 0.18
- Inigo VicenteLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.35
- Ivan MartinCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
ValenciaForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #19xP/match #17Points #19
Key players
- Guido RodríguezCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
- Arnaut DanjumaLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
- Filip UgrinicRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Racing de Santander – Valencia
Predicted score matrix
Valencia →
Racing de Santander →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–16.8%
0–24.6%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–08.4%
1–111.7%
1–27.5%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–07.0%
2–19.2%
2–26.0%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.9%
3–23.2%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–12.8%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,60–1,31
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.16
Over 2,556%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Racing de Santander or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Mohamed Yassir Zabiri to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Arnaut Danjuma Adam Groeneveld to score26%
- Aliou Dieng to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@3.60LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Racing de Santander | X | 2 · Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.18 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15 | EV+ 4% 3.60 | 3.15 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Racing de Santander
Valencia
Racing de Santander (11–21)
Valencia (4–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Racing de Santander
Valencia
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Racing de Santander
Valencia
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Racing de Santander | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 4 |
| xPoints | 8.1 | 7.4 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 0.82 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.4 | 0.55 |
| Playing style | Racing de Santander | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.82 | 0.51 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 17 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 352 | 361 |
| Passes against per match | 392 | 431 |
| Switches of play per match | 11.1 | 23.6 |
| Long balls per match | 18 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Racing de Santander | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 9.1 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| Other | Racing de Santander | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Julen Agirrezabala (Racing de Santander) | Stole Dimitrievski (Valencia) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 22 |
| Save % | 62% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Racing de Santander vs Valencia according to our model?
The model gives Racing de Santander a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Racing de Santander 42%, draw 29%, Valencia 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.