La LigaMendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz22°23 km/h

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    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo AlavesCounter-attacks & crosses
    0–1
    ValenciaValenciaBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Deportivo Alaves (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Valencia @ 5.71 (+35 %)

    Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia · La Liga

    1 · Deportivo Alaves 48%X 29%24% Valencia · 2

    Analysis: Deportivo Alaves – Valencia

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Deportivo Alaves and Valencia face off with an intriguing dynamic: Alaves boasts a run of scoring in 17 consecutive league matches, while Valencia is nursing the wounds of four straight losses. This stark contrast sets the stage for a match where momentum and confidence might just outweigh any historical head-to-head hesitations. Although the recent encounters between these two sides since 2022 have been balanced, the small sample size of four matches (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss for Alaves) tempers any conclusion drawn solely from this record.

    The form and expected goals statistics paint a clearer picture. Alaves holds an edge in expected goals with 1.3 per match compared to Valencia’s 0.67, reflecting their attacking consistency. Defensively, Alaves also appears more resilient, conceding fewer expected goals per match (1.1 vs. Valencia’s 1.6). With a model probability favoring Alaves at 48%, there’s a tangible lean towards the hosts claiming the three points.

    In terms of potential outcomes, the most likely scorelines suggest a tight affair, with both 1-0 and 1-1 sitting at 13%. The under 2.5 goals scenario, marked at 58%, aligns with these expectations. Despite Alaves’s strong scoring streak, the model weights against a high-scoring game, already accounting for their counter-attacking style against Valencia’s physicality.

    While the model leans towards an Alaves win, there’s notable value in betting on Valencia as an underdog. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.45 for a Valencia victory, with an implied probability edge of 5% over the model’s 24% rating. This represents a calculated risk for those keen to back an upset despite Valencia's current struggles.

    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo Alaves
    Form WDWWL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #5xP/match #4Points #3
    Key players
    • Mariano DiazFxG 0.39 · xT 0.12
    • Toni MartinezFxG 0.35 · xT 0.14
    • Lucas BoyeFxG 0.29 · xT 0.09
    ValenciaValencia
    Form DLLLL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #16xT #20xP/match #17Points #20
    Key players
    • Guido RodríguezCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
    • Filip UgrinicCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
    • PepeluCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Deportivo Alaves 48% · Draw 29% · Valencia 24%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - ValenciaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 23,68fair 23,710 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - AlavésBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,82fair 10,33-34 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Deportivo Alaves – Valencia

    Predicted score matrix

    Valencia →
    Deportivo Alaves →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.8%
    0–18.4%
    0–24.1%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–013.1%
    1–112.9%
    1–25.9%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–19.0%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–04.6%
    3–14.3%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-013%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,43–0,94
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,558%
    @1.81EV+4%
    Over 2,542%
    @2.15

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Deportivo Alaves to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.76

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Deportivo Alaves to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals58%
    • Lucas Ariel Boyé to score33%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals42%
    • Lucas Ariel Boyé to score33%
    • Mouctar Diakhaby to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Valencia24% probability@5.71PinnacleEV+35%reference odds
    • 2 · Valencia24% probability@5.45BetssonEV+29%reference odds
    • 2 · Valencia24% probability@5.45NordicbetEV+29%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Deportivo AlavesX2 · Valencia
    Betsafe1.70
    EV+ 0%
    3.50
    EV+ 28%
    5.40
    Betsson1.70
    EV+ 0%
    3.50
    EV+ 29%
    5.45
    Nordicbet1.70
    EV+ 0%
    3.50
    EV+ 29%
    5.45
    Pinnacle1.71
    EV+ 4%
    3.62
    EV+ 35%
    5.71

    Odds updated 15 Sept, 17:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Deportivo Alaves win since 9 September — the odds have shortened from 2.27 to 1.71 (−25%).

    1-25 %
    59 %39 %

    2.27 → 1.71

    X+27 %
    40 %20 %

    2.86 → 3.62

    2+51 %
    31 %11 %

    3.77 → 5.71

    Over 2,5-11 %
    54 %34 %

    2.33 → 2.07

    Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Deportivo Alaves 1Draw 2Valencia 1
    Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Deportivo Alaves have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.
    • Valencia CF have lost 4 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Deportivo Alaves
    Valencia
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Deportivo Alaves (11–5)
    Valencia (1–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Alaves
    Antonio Blanco: 172 passningar, xT 0.12BlancoJonny Otto: 146 passningar, xT 0.32OttoNahuel Tenaglia: 138 passningar, xT 0.58TenagliaVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 136 passningar, xT 0.06KoskiAbderrahmane Rebbach: 109 passningar, xT 0.07RebbachPablo Ibanez: 100 passningar, xT 0.11IbanezAntonio Sivera: 97 passningar, xT 0.28SiveraDenis Suarez: 90 passningar, xT 0.12SuarezÁngel Pérez: 83 passningar, xT 1.51PérezYusi: 56 passningar, xT 0.35YusiLucas Boye: 46 passningar, xT 0.14Boye
    Valencia
    Pepelu: 213 passningar, xT 0.35PepeluFilip Ugrinic: 183 passningar, xT 0.15UgrinicCesar Tarrega: 176 passningar, xT 0.12TarregaStole Dimitrievski: 118 passningar, xT 0.15DimitrievskiMouctar Diakhaby: 113 passningar, xT 0.12DiakhabyJesus Vazquez: 103 passningar, xT 0.08VazquezArnau Martinez: 101 passningar, xT -0.04MartinezJavi Guerra: 96 passningar, xT 0.13GuerraGuido Rodríguez: 95 passningar, xT 0.04RodríguezAliou Dieng: 93 passningar, xT 0.01DiengRyunosuke Sato: 77 passningar, xT -0.05Sato
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Alaves
    Antonio Blanco: 172 passningar, xT 0.12BlancoJonny Otto: 146 passningar, xT 0.32OttoNahuel Tenaglia: 138 passningar, xT 0.58TenagliaVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 136 passningar, xT 0.06KoskiAbderrahmane Rebbach: 109 passningar, xT 0.07RebbachPablo Ibanez: 100 passningar, xT 0.11IbanezAntonio Sivera: 97 passningar, xT 0.28SiveraDenis Suarez: 90 passningar, xT 0.12SuarezÁngel Pérez: 83 passningar, xT 1.51PérezYusi: 56 passningar, xT 0.35YusiLucas Boye: 46 passningar, xT 0.14Boye
    Valencia
    Pepelu: 213 passningar, xT 0.35PepeluFilip Ugrinic: 183 passningar, xT 0.15UgrinicCesar Tarrega: 176 passningar, xT 0.12TarregaStole Dimitrievski: 118 passningar, xT 0.15DimitrievskiMouctar Diakhaby: 113 passningar, xT 0.12DiakhabyJesus Vazquez: 103 passningar, xT 0.08VazquezArnau Martinez: 101 passningar, xT -0.04MartinezJavi Guerra: 96 passningar, xT 0.13GuerraGuido Rodríguez: 95 passningar, xT 0.04RodríguezAliou Dieng: 93 passningar, xT 0.01DiengRyunosuke Sato: 77 passningar, xT -0.05Sato

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDeportivo AlavesValencia
    Points101
    xPoints7.95.6
    xG per match1.30.67
    xGA per match1.11.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.110.61
    Playing styleDeportivo AlavesValencia
    Build-up efficiency0.330.3
    Field tilt0.420.34
    xT per match1.10.42
    xTA per match0.81.1
    Won balls, offensive half2818
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.19
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.16
    Entries into the box per match137
    Entries into the box against1115
    Pass completion %0.730.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.72
    Passes per match265352
    Passes against per match360486
    Switches of play per match19.522.8
    Long balls per match2726
    Set piecesDeportivo AlavesValencia
    xG from free kicks0.060.01
    Corners per match5.43.8
    Corners against per match5.23.8
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.68
    OtherDeportivo AlavesValencia
    Throw-in control0.710.72
    The goalkeepersAntonio Sivera (Deportivo Alaves)Stole Dimitrievski (Valencia)
    Saves1516
    Save %75%67%
    xG prevented40%37%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Deportivo Alaves
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Valencia
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia according to our model?

    The model gives Deportivo Alaves a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Deportivo Alaves 48%, draw 29%, Valencia 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Celta VigoCelta Vigo
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.