Levante vs Sevilla FC Prediction: Away win 38% (12 Oct 2026)

La Liga12 October 2026 21:00 CESTEstadi Ciutat de València, Valencia21°11 km/h

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LevanteLow block & direct

Sevilla FCPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Sevilla FC (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.35 (+5 %)

1 · Levante 31%X 31%38% Sevilla FC · 2

31%

38%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Levante vs Sevilla FC (La Liga, Monday, 12 October 2026): Levante win 31%, draw 31%, Sevilla FC win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Levante 1.27, Sevilla FC 1.30. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Levante or draw 62%, Sevilla FC or draw 69%. Prediction updated Saturday, 3 October 2026.

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Analysis: Levante – Sevilla FC

Sofia Andersson · 10 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The TEXT contains a factual error regarding playing styles: it claims "both teams prone to control rather than chaos," but the facts state Levante UD profiles as low defence & direct, while only Sevilla FC is possession control.

Corrected TEXT:

Levante's head-to-head streak against Sevilla is a mere two games, both victories, which is statistically insignificant compared to their current form. Sevilla shows a clear edge in points with 13 compared to Levante's 5, reflecting a more consistent performance this season. Despite Levante having a slight advantage in expected goals per match (1.1 to Sevilla's 1.0), Sevilla's superior defensive metrics (1.3 xGA versus Levante's 1.9) could neutralize the home side's attacking efforts.

The model leans towards a Sevilla win with a 38% probability, yet the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13% probability. This points to a closely fought encounter, with a subtle nod towards the visitors. The expected goals for both teams are nearly identical, suggesting a balanced game but perhaps lacking fireworks. The over/under 2.5 goals metric sits at 47%, tipping slightly towards a low-scoring affair.

The sharpest angle here is the draw, available as value at odds 3.3 with LeoVegas, offering a 4% edge over the model's 31% draw probability. With Sevilla favoring possession control against Levante's more direct, low-defence approach, and a historical pattern that offers little weight, this stalemate bet stands out in a match where margins are razor-thin.

Levante

Form DWDLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #19xT #18xP/match #19Points #17

Key players

Ivan RomeroFxG 0.38 · xT -0.01
Jon Ander OlasagastiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
Aïssa MandiCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.02

Sevilla FC

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #10xT #12xP/match #9Points #5

Key players

Kike SalasCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Andrés CastrínCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Youssouf FofanaCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Levante – Sevilla FC

Predicted score matrix

Sevilla FC →

Levante →

0–08.0%

0–19.6%

0–26.5%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.2%

1–09.4%

1–113.0%

1–28.2%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.2%

2–18.0%

2–25.2%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.6%

3–13.4%

3–22.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,27–1,30

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.81

Over 2,547%

@2.07

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sevilla FC or draw (X2)64%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sevilla FC or draw (X2)64%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Gerard Fernández Castellano to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Gerard Fernández Castellano to score21%
Lucien Jefferson Agoumé to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.35LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.33PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Levante	X	2 · Sevilla FC
Betsafe	2.75	EV+ 2% 3.25	2.58
LeoVegas	2.75	EV+ 5% 3.35	2.60
Nordicbet	2.75	EV+ 2% 3.25	2.60
Pinnacle	2.76	EV+ 5% 3.33	EV+ 1% 2.68

Odds updated 11 Oct, 07:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

38 %33 %

2.68 → 2.76

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.32 → 3.33

2-1 %

38 %33 %

2.72 → 2.68

Over 2,50 %

49 %44 %

2.06 → 2.07

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 10/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Levante 2Draw 0Sevilla FC 0

Goals: 5–0 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Levante

Sevilla FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Levante (8–12)

Sevilla FC (10–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Levante

Sevilla FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Levante

Sevilla FC

The teams in numbers

Performance	Levante	Sevilla FC
Points	5	13
xPoints	6.2	9.8
xG per match	1.1	1
xGA per match	1.9	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.38

Playing style	Levante	Sevilla FC
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.31	0.47
xT per match	0.64	0.74
xTA per match	0.84	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	22	34
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.22
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.75	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.68
Passes per match	297	258
Passes against per match	492	397
Switches of play per match	24.5	22.1
Long balls per match	30	31

Set pieces	Levante	Sevilla FC
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.03
Corners per match	3	3.2
Corners against per match	5.8	3.4
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.58

Other	Levante	Sevilla FC
Throw-in control	0.64	0.71

The goalkeepers	Mathew Ryan (Levante)	Odysseas Vlachodimos (Sevilla FC)
Saves	23	20
Save %	66%	69%
xG prevented	39%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Levante

Fixtures, form & tips

Sevilla FC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Levante vs Sevilla FC according to our model?

The model gives Sevilla FC a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Levante 31%, draw 31%, Sevilla FC 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Levante vs Sevilla FC?

The model expects 1.27 goals (xG) for Levante and 1.30 for Sevilla FC, 2.57 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Levante or draw (1X) 62%, Sevilla FC or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.