Häcken vs Degerfors Prediction: Home win 64% (24 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan24 October 2026 15:00 CESTRambergsvallen, Göteborg10°1,7 mm18 km/h

Läs på svenska

HäckenCounter-attacks & crosses

DegerforsCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Häcken (64%)Best value by the model: 2 · Degerfors @ 7.38 (+20 %)

1 · Häcken 64%X 20%16% Degerfors · 2

64%

20%

16%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Häcken vs Degerfors (Swedish Allsvenskan, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Häcken win 64%, draw 20%, Degerfors win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Häcken 2.14, Degerfors 1.04. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Häcken or draw 84%, Degerfors or draw 36%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Häcken – Degerfors

Sofia Andersson · 19 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Häcken's strong form and statistical superiority make them clear favorites against Degerfors. With a 64% probability of victory and coming off three consecutive wins, the hosts have the upper hand. Their expected goals (2.14) double that of the visitors (1.04), showcasing their offensive prowess. These figures suggest a dominant performance, aligning with the most likely scorelines: 2-0, 2-1, and 1-1.

The historical head-to-head record, where the visitors have had an edge, holds limited predictive power due to the small sample size and Häcken's current momentum. Degerfors have managed two wins in five meetings, yet Häcken's superior xG and xGA metrics signal a shift in the competitive balance. The guests' counter-attacking style mirrors that of the hosts, but Häcken's execution has been more effective.

Weather conditions, with rain expected, could dampen scoring opportunities. However, with an over 2.5 goals probability at 62% and both teams likely to score at 57%, a lively match remains probable, albeit slightly moderated by the conditions. Häcken's capacity to create and convert chances should see them net a couple of goals, while Degerfors' inefficiencies are likely to limit their impact.

Despite the odds and form favoring Häcken, there’s value in betting on a Degerfors win at attractive odds. With an estimated 16% chance of an upset, LeoVegas, Betsafe, and Nordicbet offer odds of 6.46 to 6.5, presenting a 5-6% edge over the model's assessment. While a Degerfors victory remains unlikely, the potential return at these odds warrants attention for those seeking value.

Häcken

Form DDWWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #3xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Mikkel Rygaard JensenCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.28
Amor LayouniRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.50
Julius LindbergFxG 0.38 · xT 0.23

Degerfors

Form WLLDL

League ranking xG #16xGA #12xT #11xP/match #15Points #13

Key players

Dijan VukojevicFxG 0.25 · xT 0.21
Nahom Girmai NetabayRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.31
CR Sebastian OhlssonCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Häcken – Degerfors

Predicted score matrix

Degerfors →

Häcken →

0–04.4%

0–14.0%

0–22.2%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.7%

1–19.5%

1–24.8%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.6%

2–19.9%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.8%

3–17.1%

3–23.7%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–06.0%

4+–16.2%

4+–23.2%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-010%
3.1-110%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,14–1,04

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.38

Over 2,562%

@1.57

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Häcken to win64%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Häcken to win64%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Sanders Ngabo to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Sanders Ngabo to score28%
Nahom Girmai Netabay to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Degerfors16% probability@7.38BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
2 · Degerfors16% probability@7.38NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
2 · Degerfors16% probability@6.75LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Häcken	X	2 · Degerfors
Betsafe	1.41	4.82	EV+ 20% 7.38
LeoVegas	1.44	4.90	EV+ 10% 6.75
Nordicbet	1.41	4.82	EV+ 20% 7.38

Odds updated 22 Oct, 15:37

Odds movement

1-2 %

68 %63 %

1.47 → 1.44

X+7 %

22 %17 %

4.60 → 4.90

2+8 %

17 %12 %

6.25 → 6.75

LeoVegas · 18 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Häcken 1Draw 2Degerfors 2

Goals: 10–7 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Degerfors IF dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
BK Häcken come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Häcken

Degerfors

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Häcken (43–30)

Degerfors (21–37)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Häcken

Degerfors

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Häcken

Degerfors

The teams in numbers

Performance	Häcken	Degerfors
Points	42	20
xPoints	38.1	23.4
xG per match	1.5	0.89
xGA per match	1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.32

Playing style	Häcken	Degerfors
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.51	0.43
xT per match	1.5	1.4
xTA per match	1.1	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	28	32
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.48
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.26
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	12	15
Pass completion %	0.83	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.75
Passes per match	428	356
Passes against per match	375	421
Switches of play per match	12.8	14
Long balls per match	30	28

Set pieces	Häcken	Degerfors
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.11
Corners per match	5.3	4.7
Corners against per match	5	5.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.65

Other	Häcken	Degerfors
Throw-in control	0.68	0.54

The goalkeepers	Andreas Linde (Häcken)	Matvei Igonen (Degerfors)
Saves	45	95
Save %	74%	72%
xG prevented	52%	45%
Claims	54 (90%)	111 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Häcken

Fixtures, form & tips

Degerfors

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Häcken vs Degerfors according to our model?

The model gives Häcken a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Häcken 64%, draw 20%, Degerfors 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Häcken vs Degerfors?

The model expects 2.14 goals (xG) for Häcken and 1.04 for Degerfors, 3.18 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Häcken or draw (1X) 84%, Degerfors or draw (X2) 36% and no draw (12) 80%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.