Mjällby vs Hammarby Prediction: Away win 53% (25 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan25 October 2026 16:30 CETStrandvallen, Sölvesborg10°13,2 mm54 km/h

Läs på svenska

MjällbyPossession control

HammarbyPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Hammarby (53%)Best value by the model: 1 · Mjällby @ 5.96 (+43 %)

1 · Mjällby 24%X 23%53% Hammarby · 2

24%

23%

53%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Mjällby vs Hammarby (Swedish Allsvenskan, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Mjällby win 24%, draw 23%, Hammarby win 53%. Expected goals (xG): Mjällby 1.16, Hammarby 1.81. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Mjällby or draw 47%, Hammarby or draw 76%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Mjällby – Hammarby

Marcus Johansson · 20 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Mjällby and Hammarby since 2023 is perfectly balanced, with each side claiming three victories and one draw. While this might suggest a close matchup, the broader context paints a different picture. Hammarby, sitting comfortably with 46 points compared to Mjällby's 23, holds a clear advantage in both form and potential.

Tactically, Mjällby relies on possession control, a style that might struggle against Hammarby's high press and possession-based approach. This strategic clash favors the visitors, whose expected goals per match (2.1) significantly outpace the hosts' (1.2). Hammarby's defensive solidity, allowing only 0.91 xGA per match compared to Mjällby's 1.7, suggests they could withstand Mjällby's offensive efforts while posing a substantial threat themselves.

The model leans strongly towards Hammarby with a 53% win probability, favoring scorelines like 1-1 and 1-2. Rain is expected to dampen proceedings, potentially suppressing goal totals, yet the forecast doesn't overly alter the 57% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability for both teams to score. These numbers indicate a match where Hammarby's superior quality could shine through despite the weather.

For bettors hunting value, Mjällby offers intriguing potential. Odds of 5.96 on Betsafe and Nordicbet, as well as 5.5 on LeoVegas, present a considerable edge given the model's 24% win rate for the home team. While Hammarby is the sensible pick based on form and tactics, the substantial value in backing the hosts could tempt those willing to gamble on an upset.

Mjällby

Form DDLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #13xT #8xP/match #14Points #12

Key players

Jesper GustavssonCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Viktor GustafsonCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
Elliot StroudCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.49

Hammarby

Form DWWLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Nahir BesaraCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.34
Tesfaldet TekieCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
Montader MadjedRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.28

Match prediction: Mjällby – Hammarby

Predicted score matrix

Hammarby →

Mjällby →

0–05.5%

0–19.0%

0–28.4%

0–35.1%

0–4+3.4%

1–05.7%

1–111.1%

1–29.7%

1–35.9%

1–4+4.0%

2–03.5%

2–16.2%

2–25.6%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.3%

3–01.3%

3–12.4%

3–22.2%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,16–1,81

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.38EV+3%

Over 2,557%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hammarby to win53%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hammarby to win53%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Montader Madjed to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Montader Madjed to score30%
Jesper Gustavsson to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Mjällby24% probability@5.96BetsafeEV+43%reference odds
1 · Mjällby24% probability@5.96NordicbetEV+43%reference odds
1 · Mjällby24% probability@5.50LeoVegasEV+32%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mjällby	X	2 · Hammarby
Betsafe	EV+ 43% 5.96	EV+ 1% 4.38	1.52
LeoVegas	EV+ 32% 5.50	EV+ 4% 4.50	1.52
Nordicbet	EV+ 43% 5.96	EV+ 1% 4.38	1.52

Odds updated 22 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Mjällby win since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 6.00 to 5.50 (−8%).

1-8 %

19 %14 %

6.00 → 5.50

X-2 %

24 %19 %

4.60 → 4.50

2+3 %

65 %60 %

1.47 → 1.52

LeoVegas · 17 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Mjällby 3Draw 1Hammarby 3

Goals: 8–11 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mjällby

Hammarby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mjällby (28–40)

Hammarby (50–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mjällby

Hammarby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mjällby

Hammarby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mjällby	Hammarby
Points	23	46
xPoints	24.9	43.2
xG per match	1.2	2.1
xGA per match	1.7	0.91
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.4
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.42	0.23

Playing style	Mjällby	Hammarby
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.35
Field tilt	0.5	0.77
xT per match	1.4	1.7
xTA per match	1.4	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	34	37
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.58
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.25
Entries into the box per match	14	20
Entries into the box against	15	8
Pass completion %	0.8	0.87
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.83
Passes per match	399	565
Passes against per match	394	313
Switches of play per match	17.6	11
Long balls per match	31	24

Set pieces	Mjällby	Hammarby
xG from free kicks	0.24	0.25
Corners per match	4.9	6.7
Corners against per match	4.6	2.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.57

Other	Mjällby	Hammarby
Throw-in control	0.56	0.71

The goalkeepers	Robin Wallinder (Mjällby)	Warner Hahn (Hammarby)
Saves	71	46
Save %	69%	69%
xG prevented	47%	39%
Claims	112 (89%)	86 (98%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mjällby

Fixtures, form & tips

Hammarby

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mjällby vs Hammarby according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mjällby 24%, draw 23%, Hammarby 53%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Mjällby vs Hammarby?

The model expects 1.16 goals (xG) for Mjällby and 1.81 for Hammarby, 2.96 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Mjällby or draw (1X) 47%, Hammarby or draw (X2) 76% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.