GAIS vs Sirius Prediction: Away win 38% (10 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan10 October 2026 15:00 CESTGamla Ullevi, Göteborg9°13 km/h

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GAISPossession & high press

SiriusBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Sirius (38%)Soft draw

1 · GAIS 36%X 27%38% Sirius · 2

36%

27%

38%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: GAIS – Sirius

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sirius enters this match riding a wave of momentum, with three consecutive victories boosting their confidence. The model gives them a slight edge with a 38% win probability, compared to Gais's 36%, highlighting the tight nature of this contest. The most likely scorelines—1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), and 2-1 (8%)—underline the potential for a closely fought battle, with the visitors having a slight upper hand.

Gais adopt a possession-heavy and high-pressing approach, but their statistical indicators suggest that they may struggle against Sirius's balanced and physical style. The numbers show a modest advantage for Sirius in expected goals (1.53 vs. 1.43) and expected points (41.2 vs. 35.7). This tilt in metrics is reflected in the head-to-head record as well, where the visitors have emerged victorious in three of their last five meetings, a small sample but a relevant psychological factor.

The matchup's historical goal average of 3.2 per game suggests an inclination towards a lively contest. With a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood of both teams finding the net, the stage is set for a match with multiple scoring opportunities. The high-scoring potential is already considered in the model's calculations, indicating that the odds are in line with expectations.

For bettors seeking value, the away win at odds of 2.7 with LeoVegas represents a 2% edge, given the model's probability assessment. This is not a guarantee, but it shines as the sharpest angle for those looking to capitalize on Sirius's edge in form and underlying metrics. As Gais looks to disrupt their visitors' rhythm, the most probable outcome leans towards a narrow Sirius victory, perhaps edging it 1-2 in a game that promises to reveal much about both teams' current trajectories.

GAIS

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #2xP/match #4Points #10

Key players

Róbert Frosti ÞorkelssonLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.25
Samuel SalterFxG 0.49 · xT 0.05
Rasmus Niklasson PetrovicLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.21

Sirius

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #8xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Isak BjerkeboLWxG 0.51 · xT 0.31
Robbie UreFxG 0.62 · xT 0.05
Oscar KrusnellLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.32

Match prediction: GAIS – Sirius

Predicted score matrix

Sirius →

GAIS →

0–05.5%

0–17.6%

0–26.0%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.7%

1–07.0%

1–111.6%

1–28.7%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.4%

2–05.3%

2–18.1%

2–26.2%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.7%

3–02.5%

3–13.9%

3–23.0%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,43–1,53

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.08

Over 2,557%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sirius or draw (X2)65%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sirius or draw (X2)65%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Robbie Ure to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Samuel Salter to score30%
Marcus Pheiffer Lindberg to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sirius38% probability@2.74BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
2 · Sirius38% probability@2.74NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
2 · Sirius38% probability@2.70LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · GAIS	X	2 · Sirius
Betsafe	2.59	3.33	EV+ 4% 2.74
LeoVegas	2.50	3.50	EV+ 2% 2.70
Nordicbet	2.59	3.33	EV+ 4% 2.74

Odds updated 3 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

10 %

40 %35 %

2.50 → 2.50

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.50 → 3.50

20 %

38 %33 %

2.70 → 2.70

Over 2,50 %

57 %52 %

1.70 → 1.70

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

GAIS 2Draw 0Sirius 3

Goals: 6–10 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
IK Sirius FK come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

GAIS

Sirius

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

GAIS (28–20)

Sirius (52–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

GAIS

Sirius

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

GAIS

Sirius

The teams in numbers

Performance	GAIS	Sirius
Points	30	51
xPoints	35.7	41.2
xG per match	1.6	1.8
xGA per match	1.1	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.43	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.15

Playing style	GAIS	Sirius
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.35
Field tilt	0.55	0.46
xT per match	1.6	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	38	30
Pressing intensity	0.5	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	17	14
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.81	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.78
Passes per match	416	391
Passes against per match	408	437
Switches of play per match	12.6	17
Long balls per match	27	30

Set pieces	GAIS	Sirius
xG from free kicks	0.18	0.2
Corners per match	5	5.6
Corners against per match	4.4	5.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.57

Other	GAIS	Sirius
Throw-in control	0.61	0.6

The goalkeepers	Mergim Krasniqi (GAIS)	David Celic (Sirius)
Saves	50	69
Save %	81%	71%
xG prevented	52%	43%
Claims	85 (94%)	115 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

GAIS

Fixtures, form & tips

Sirius

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins GAIS vs Sirius according to our model?

The model gives Sirius a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: GAIS 36%, draw 27%, Sirius 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.