Mjällby vs Degerfors Prediction: Home win 50% (10 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan10 October 2026 17:30 CESTStrandvallen, Sölvesborg11°0,6 mm14 km/h

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MjällbyPossession control

DegerforsBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Mjällby (50%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.05 (+4 %)

1 · Mjällby 50%X 25%25% Degerfors · 2

50%

25%

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Analysis: Mjällby – Degerfors

Anna Karlsson · 2 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Mjällby's dominance in this fixture is undeniable, having won all five matches against Degerfors in their recent encounters. This pattern sets the stage for a clash where the hosts are favored to continue their winning streak. Despite their historical supremacy, the underlying numbers suggest this may not be as straightforward as past results imply.

The model leans towards a Mjällby victory, with a 50% probability and expected goals of 1.78 against Degerfors' 1.17. However, the most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% hints at a close contest. Mjällby holds a slight advantage in points, but Degerfors edges them in expected points, underscoring a potential for an upset. The visitors' physical and balanced style might disrupt Mjällby's possession control strategy, especially in rainy conditions expected to dampen the goal count.

Despite the high-scoring history between these teams, the 56% chance of over 2.5 goals leaves room for skepticism. Degerfors' marginally superior xGA at 1.6 compared to Mjällby's 1.8 suggests they may be more resilient defensively. This defensive edge, combined with the weather, could suppress the expected offensive fireworks, making the outcome less predictable.

The market's inclination towards both teams scoring at 58% aligns with a tight, competitive match. Yet, with Mjällby's historical edge and superior xG per match at 1.2 versus Degerfors' 0.9, the hosts have the upper hand. The 2-1 scoreline at 10% probability captures this nuanced balance, reflecting a likely but hard-fought Mjällby triumph.

For bettors, the value lies in Mjällby securing the win, given their past record against Degerfors and the model's lean in their favor.

Mjällby

Form LLDDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #14xT #9xP/match #15Points #12

Key players

Abdoulie MannehFxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
Elliot StroudCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.49
Jacob BergströmFxG 0.27 · xT -0.01

Degerfors

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #11xP/match #14Points #14

Key players

Dijan VukojevicFxG 0.23 · xT 0.20
Nahom Girmai NetabayRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.33
Daniel SundgrenRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Mjällby – Degerfors

Predicted score matrix

Degerfors →

Mjällby →

0–05.6%

0–15.8%

0–23.6%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–09.0%

1–111.2%

1–26.4%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.3%

2–19.7%

2–25.7%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.9%

3–15.8%

3–23.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.3%

4+–13.8%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,78–1,17

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+18%

Under 2,544%

@1.98

Over 2,556%

@1.82EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Mjällby to win50%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Mjällby to win50%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Jacob Bergström to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Jacob Bergström to score31%
Bilal Hussein to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.534% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Over 3.534% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
Over 4.518% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mjällby	X	2 · Degerfors
Betsafe	1.91	3.64	3.96
LeoVegas	1.95	3.60	3.70
Nordicbet	1.91	3.64	3.96

Odds updated 3 Oct, 17:36

Odds movement

10 %

51 %46 %

1.95 → 1.95

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.55 → 3.60

20 %

28 %23 %

3.70 → 3.70

Over 2,5+2 %

55 %50 %

1.77 → 1.80

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Mjällby 5Draw 0Degerfors 0

Goals: 13–3 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Mjällby AIF dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mjällby

Degerfors

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mjällby (27–38)

Degerfors (19–34)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mjällby

Degerfors

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mjällby

Degerfors

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mjällby	Degerfors
Points	22	19
xPoints	22.3	22.5
xG per match	1.2	0.9
xGA per match	1.8	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.43	0.34

Playing style	Mjällby	Degerfors
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.35
Field tilt	0.5	0.44
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	33	32
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.48
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.26
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.8	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.75
Passes per match	402	359
Passes against per match	398	422
Switches of play per match	17.4	14
Long balls per match	31	28

Set pieces	Mjällby	Degerfors
xG from free kicks	0.25	0.1
Corners per match	4.8	4.7
Corners against per match	4.6	5.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.63

Other	Mjällby	Degerfors
Throw-in control	0.57	0.55

The goalkeepers	Robin Wallinder (Mjällby)	Matvei Igonen (Degerfors)
Saves	71	86
Save %	69%	72%
xG prevented	47%	44%
Claims	112 (89%)	105 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mjällby

Fixtures, form & tips

Degerfors

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mjällby vs Degerfors according to our model?

The model gives Mjällby a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mjällby 50%, draw 25%, Degerfors 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.