01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Assyriska FF to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Swedish Ettan12°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
Assyriska FFCounter-attacks & crossesvs
PiteåLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Assyriska FF (58%)
Assyriska FF vs Piteå · Swedish Ettan
1 · Assyriska FF 58%X 23%19% Piteå · 2
58%
23%
19%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Assyriska FF – Piteå
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Assyriska's 58% win probability highlights their dominance going into this matchup against Piteå. With the hosts scoring in 11 straight league fixtures, their offensive reliability stands out. Their approach, rooted in counter-attacks and crosses, complements their 2.09 expected goals, suggesting they'll find opportunities against Piteå's low defensive line. Meanwhile, the visitors struggle with an average of just 0.99 xG per match, indicating limited attacking threat.
In their head-to-head meetings since 2023, Assyriska have never lost to Piteå, though the sample size is small with just three encounters. The hosts have taken two wins and a draw from these clashes, further supporting their strong record. However, with a draw likelihood of 23% and a 62% chance of both teams scoring, Piteå may still find the net, despite their underdog status and a modest 19% chance of victory.
The most likely scorelines of 2-1 and 1-1 suggest a game with multiple goals. The over 2.5 goals market leans heavily at 64%, an angle punters might consider. Given Assyriska's superior form and attacking efficiency, a 2-1 home win appears the most probable outcome.
Assyriska FFForm WWLLW
League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #17xP/match #12Points #17
Key players
- Sebastian WändinRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
- Felix Felder AaltonenRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.29
- Viktor WiderbergFxG 0.20 · xT 0.10
PiteåForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #30xGA #30xT #30xP/match #31Points #29
Key players
- Bekir KavurLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.27
- Fredrik JohanssonCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.30
- Siavash JamehdarFxG 0.05 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Assyriska FF – Piteå
Predicted score matrix
Piteå →
Assyriska FF →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.9%
0–14.2%
0–22.7%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–07.3%
1–19.6%
1–25.7%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.7%
2–26.0%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–05.5%
3–16.8%
3–24.2%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–04.7%
4+–15.7%
4+–23.5%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,09–1,23
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@2.48
Over 2,564%
@1.49
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Assyriska FF to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Felix Felder Aaltonen to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Felix Felder Aaltonen to score33%
- Fredrik Johansson to be booked19%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Assyriska FF | X | 2 · Piteå |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.00 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.00 |
Odds updated 27 Sept, 13:35
Odds movement
1+2 %
57 %52 %
1.65 → 1.68
X0 %
26 %21 %
3.85 → 3.85
2-5 %
25 %20 %
4.20 → 4.00
Nordicbet · 4 recorded price levels · 22/09/2026 → 27/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesAssyriska FF 2Draw 1Piteå 0
Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Assyriska FF have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Assyriska FF
Piteå
Assyriska FF (42–40)
Piteå (27–44)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Assyriska FF
Piteå
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Assyriska FF
Piteå
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Assyriska FF | Piteå |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 32 | 18 |
| xPoints | 33.5 | 22.3 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Assyriska FF | Piteå |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 298 | 338 |
| Passes against per match | 400 | 405 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.7 | 17.1 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Assyriska FF | Piteå |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| Other | Assyriska FF | Piteå |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.54 | 0.6 |
| The goalkeepers | Kingdom Osayi (Assyriska FF) | Filip Eriksson (Piteå) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 64 | 100 |
| Save % | 66% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 48% |
| Claims | 110 (91%) | 118 (92%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Assyriska FF vs Piteå according to our model?
The model gives Assyriska FF a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Assyriska FF 58%, draw 23%, Piteå 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.