01 · 2 legs
Safe
- FC Trollhättan to win55%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Swedish Ettan13°18 km/h
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FC TrollhättanPossession controlvs
TvååkerCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · FC Trollhättan (55%)
FC Trollhättan vs Tvååker · Swedish Ettan
1 · FC Trollhättan 55%X 24%22% Tvååker · 2
55%
24%
22%
Analysis: FC Trollhättan – Tvååker
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Tvååker might boast a slight historical edge over FC Trollhättan with two wins in their last five encounters, but the sample is small and doesn't overshadow current form. Trollhättan's recent streak of four consecutive wins speaks louder than their head-to-head record. Despite slightly trailing in xPoints at 28.2 to 29.0, the hosts have the upper hand when it comes to expected goals and goals against, suggesting a more efficient overall performance.
The numbers favor Trollhättan's possession-heavy approach against Tvååk's counter-attacking strategy. With expected goals at 2.09 to 1.28 in favor of Trollhättan, we see a clear inclination towards a home victory. The model's lean, which pegs the home win probability at 55%, underscores this. Combine this with Trollhättan's form and the home advantage, and the most likely scorelines of 2-1 and 2-0 seem plausible. The average of 3.6 goals per meeting historically and the 65% probability for over 2.5 goals support an expectation for a game that delivers on goals.
Both teams are likely to find the back of the net, given the 64% probability for both teams scoring. Trollhättan's defense, which allows 1.3 goals per game, will be tested by Tvååker's crossing game, but the home side's stronger attacking numbers should see them through. The match leans towards a 2-1 result, aligning with the model's most likely scoreline, while the over 2.5 goals market looks attractive.
For those eyeing value, the 1.92 odds on a home win from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 5% edge according to the model. This is where the sharp money should go, as Trollhättan's form and superiority in expected goals make them worth backing.
FC TrollhättanForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #6xP/match #25Points #14
Key players
- Melwin BergRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.27
- Hugo TillyFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
- Filip SternerLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
TvååkerForm DWDLL
League ranking xG #27xGA #24xT #15xP/match #23Points #15
Key players
- Melvin SjölandFxG 0.22 · xT 0.27
- Mergim LaciFxG 0.47 · xT 0.07
- Victor KarlssonLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.43
Match prediction: FC Trollhättan – Tvååker
Predicted score matrix
Tvååker →
FC Trollhättan →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–14.1%
0–22.8%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–06.9%
1–19.5%
1–25.9%
1–32.5%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.5%
2–19.6%
2–26.2%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–05.2%
3–16.7%
3–24.3%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–04.4%
4+–15.7%
4+–23.6%
4+–31.6%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-07%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,09–1,28
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
–
Over 2,565%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- FC Trollhättan to win55%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · FC Trollhättan55% probability@1.92BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · FC Trollhättan55% probability@1.92BetssonEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · FC Trollhättan55% probability@1.92NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Trollhättan | X | 2 · Tvååker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 1.92 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| Betsson | EV+ 5% 1.92 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 1.92 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
Odds updated 21 Sept, 11:35
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesFC Trollhättan 1Draw 2Tvååker 2
Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 3,6)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Tvååkers IF dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
- FC Trollhättan come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Trollhättan
Tvååker
FC Trollhättan (37–34)
Tvååker (30–33)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Trollhättan
Tvååker
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Trollhättan
Tvååker
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Trollhättan | Tvååker |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 34 | 33 |
| xPoints | 28.2 | 29 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | FC Trollhättan | Tvååker |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 514 | 345 |
| Passes against per match | 307 | 397 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.8 | 18.1 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 30 |
| Set pieces | FC Trollhättan | Tvååker |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 6.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Other | FC Trollhättan | Tvååker |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| The goalkeepers | Jimmy Henriksson (FC Trollhättan) | Alexander Capocci Nielsen (Tvååker) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 52 | 93 |
| Save % | 77% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 63% |
| Claims | 96 (92%) | 99 (88%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Trollhättan vs Tvååker according to our model?
The model gives FC Trollhättan a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Trollhättan 55%, draw 24%, Tvååker 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.