Umeå FC vs FBK Karlstad: Prediction & Odds (27 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan27 September 2026 12:00 CEST12°21 km/h

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Umeå FCPossession control

FBK KarlstadCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Umeå FC (41%)

1 · Umeå FC 41%X 24%35% FBK Karlstad · 2

41%

24%

35%

Analysis: Umeå FC – FBK Karlstad

Marcus Johansson · 19 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Umeå FC's possession-focused approach will be tested against FBK Karlstad's counter-attacking and crossing style, with the model giving the hosts a slight edge at 41% to secure victory. Despite this, FBK Karlstad's superior points tally and xPoints suggest they're no strangers to navigating challenges. The head-to-head record since 2023 is limited, with Umeå holding a small advantage at 2W 1D, a sample too small to overshadow current form and expected goals.

Expected goals favor Umeå at 1.93 compared to Karlstad's 1.46, hinting at a competitive clash. Umeå's control-oriented play might suppress Karlstad's counterattack threats, yet the visitor's efficiency in transition could exploit any lapses. In terms of scoring potential, the model forecasts a 66% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and for both teams to find the net, indicating a high-scoring affair is probable.

Betting angles offer intrigue, notably the over 2.5 goals market, reflecting solid value given the match's profile and the generous odds it presents. Keeping an eye on how Umeå's possession strategy copes with Karlstad's defensive resilience will be key. This tactical battle may well produce the most likely scorelines: 1-1 or 2-1 to Umeå.

Umeå FC

Form DWWLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #26xT #26xP/match #10Points #23

Key players

Stefan LindmarkCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
Emmanuel OlaworeRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.35
Robin HadadFxG 0.68 · xT -0.02

FBK Karlstad

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #11xP/match #3Points #10

Key players

Granit HanaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.11
Ludvig SteenRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.22
Edgar Sarkis NavassardianFxG 0.40 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Umeå FC – FBK Karlstad

Predicted score matrix

FBK Karlstad →

Umeå FC →

0–03.7%

0–14.7%

0–23.6%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.9%

1–06.2%

1–19.8%

1–27.0%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.3%

2–19.2%

2–26.7%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.7%

3–04.0%

3–15.9%

3–24.3%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.1%

4+–03.0%

4+–14.4%

4+–23.2%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.2-06%

Expected goals

1,93–1,46

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

–

Over 2,566%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Umeå FC or draw (1X)71%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Umeå FC or draw (1X)71%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Steve Zishim Bawa to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Steve Zishim Bawa to score27%
Fredrick Udoh Godwin to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Umeå FC 2Draw 1FBK Karlstad 0

Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Umeå FC

FBK Karlstad

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Umeå FC (28–37)

FBK Karlstad (36–32)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Umeå FC

FBK Karlstad

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Umeå FC

FBK Karlstad

The teams in numbers

Performance	Umeå FC	FBK Karlstad
Points	26	38
xPoints	32.9	36.3
xG per match	1.7	1.5
xGA per match	1.6	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.24

Playing style	Umeå FC	FBK Karlstad
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.34
Field tilt	0.41	0.41
xT per match	1.3	1.5
xTA per match	1.5	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	28	35
Pressing intensity	0.43	0.48
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	15
Entries into the box against	15	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.64
Passes per match	321	269
Passes against per match	358	430
Switches of play per match	17.2	19
Long balls per match	31	33

Set pieces	Umeå FC	FBK Karlstad
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.14
Corners per match	5.9	5.3
Corners against per match	5.7	4.3
xG per corner	0.06	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.62

Other	Umeå FC	FBK Karlstad
Throw-in control	0.55	0.48

The goalkeepers	Pontus Eriksson (Umeå FC)	Vincent Johansson (FBK Karlstad)
Saves	50	61
Save %	68%	69%
xG prevented	48%	56%
Claims	65 (92%)	81 (89%)

Teams & more matches this round

Umeå FC

Fixtures, form & tips

FBK Karlstad

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Umeå FC vs FBK Karlstad according to our model?

The model gives Umeå FC a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Umeå FC 41%, draw 24%, FBK Karlstad 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.