01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Trelleborgs FF to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Swedish Ettan14°15 km/h
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OlympicPossession & high pressvs
Trelleborgs FFPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Trelleborgs FF (48%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.60 (+1 %)
Olympic vs Trelleborgs FF · Swedish Ettan
1 · Olympic 30%X 22%48% Trelleborgs FF · 2
30%
22%
48%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Olympic – Trelleborgs FF
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Trelleborgs FF's 48% win probability casts a long shadow over Olympic's prospects. The guests have notched four consecutive victories, scoring in each of their last ten league outings. Olympic's streak of scoring in eight straight matches could test Trelleborgs' defense, yet the 1-1 and 1-2 scorelines remain the most plausible outcomes, reflecting a balanced yet slightly tilted contest in Trelleborgs' favor.
With both teams favoring possession and a high press, the midfield battle could be fierce. Expected goals suggest a narrow edge for Trelleborgs (1.67 to Olympic's 1.42), but defensive frailties on Olympic's side (1.5 xGA versus Trelleborgs' 1.1) might tip the scales. Despite Olympic's scoring consistency, their xPoints of 32.9 versus Trelleborgs' 37.5 signal a disparity in performance quality.
The over 2.5 goals stands at 60%, indicating a decent chance of a lively encounter, though both teams to score at 62% slightly undermines the confidence in a clear-cut outcome. For bettors, there's a 5% edge in backing Olympic at odds of 3.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, hinting at value despite their underdog status.
OlympicForm WLWDL
League ranking xG #8xGA #20xT #11xP/match #17Points #18
Key players
- Albin SundgrenLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.30
- Chibueze Blessing EjimoleFxG 0.50 · xT 0.11
- Osama KhattabFxG 0.42 · xT 0.27
Trelleborgs FFForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #7xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Kofi Fosuhene AsareFxG 0.39 · xT 0.06
- Johan BrannefalkRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.51
- Oskar RuuskaRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.30
Match prediction: Olympic – Trelleborgs FF
Predicted score matrix
Trelleborgs FF →
Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–17.3%
0–26.4%
0–33.5%
0–4+2.2%
1
1–06.2%
1–111.1%
1–29.0%
1–35.0%
1–4+3.0%
2
2–04.6%
2–17.7%
2–26.4%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.2%
3
3–02.2%
3–13.6%
3–23.0%
3–31.7%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,42–1,67
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.45
Over 2,560%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Trelleborgs FF to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Oskar Ruuska to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Oskar Ruuska to score24%
- August Karlin to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.563% probability@1.60BetssonEV+1%reference odds
- 1 · Olympic30% probability@3.30BetssonEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Olympic | X | 2 · Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betsson | EV+ 0% 3.30 | 3.75 | 1.88 |
| Nordicbet | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
Odds updated 1 Oct, 10:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Olympic win since 29 September — the odds have shortened from 3.45 to 2.95 (−14%).
1-14 %
33 %23 %
3.45 → 2.95
X-5 %
30 %20 %
3.70 → 3.50
2+11 %
51 %41 %
1.85 → 2.05
Nordicbet · 5 recorded price levels · 29/09/2026 → 01/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesOlympic 0Draw 0Trelleborgs FF 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- BK Olympic have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Trelleborgs FF come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Trelleborgs FF have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Olympic
Trelleborgs FF
Olympic (41–46)
Trelleborgs FF (53–28)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Olympic
Trelleborgs FF
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Olympic
Trelleborgs FF
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Olympic | Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 30 | 51 |
| xPoints | 32.9 | 37.5 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Olympic | Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 37 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 410 | 352 |
| Passes against per match | 345 | 294 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.2 | 16.6 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Olympic | Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| Other | Olympic | Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| The goalkeepers | Joakim Persson (Olympic) | Malte Påhlsson (Trelleborgs FF) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 56 | 66 |
| Save % | 58% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 38% |
| Claims | 93 (94%) | 144 (93%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Karlberg – Sollentuna2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Kristianstad FC – AFC Malmö2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Lunds BK – Laholm2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Enköpings SK – Gefle3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Stockholm Internazionale – Assyriska FF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Ängelholm – Rosengård3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Tvååker – Hässleholms IF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- FBK Karlstad – AFC Eskilstuna3 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- IFK Stocksund – Järfälla3 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Olympic vs Trelleborgs FF according to our model?
The model gives Trelleborgs FF a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Olympic 30%, draw 22%, Trelleborgs FF 48%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.