01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Karlberg or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Swedish Ettan
Läs på svenska
KarlbergCounter-attacks & crossesvs
SollentunaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Karlberg (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Sollentuna @ 3.20 (+14 %)
Karlberg vs Sollentuna · Swedish Ettan
1 · Karlberg 39%X 25%36% Sollentuna · 2
39%
25%
36%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Karlberg – Sollentuna
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Karlberg holds a slight edge in this matchup through expected points and goals, with a model probability of winning at 39% compared to Sollentuna's 36%. The hosts have also outperformed in xPoints, sitting at 32.9 against the visitors' 28.3. This suggests a tilt toward Karlberg, despite their modest head-to-head disadvantage.
Sollentuna has a small historical dominance over five encounters, but this record is less significant than the current form. Karlberg's expected goals per match of 1.4 versus Sollentuna's 1.1 highlights their sharper attack. Meanwhile, the hosts' defensive vulnerabilities are marginally greater, conceding 1.3 expected goals per match to Sollentuna's 1.2. The numbers point to a balanced but slightly Karlberg-favored game.
With a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals and both sides likely to find the net, the most likely overall scoreline is a 1-1 draw, though a 2-1 win for Karlberg is the next most probable outcome. The historical high-scoring nature of this fixture supports the over 2.5 goals lean, making it an attractive market.
KarlbergForm DLWLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #16xT #16xP/match #15Points #22
Key players
- Noah Tesfai NegashLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.26
- Adam JemalFxG 0.44 · xT 0.17
- Hugo FernándezRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.29
SollentunaForm LWLLD
League ranking xG #29xGA #11xT #27xP/match #24Points #25
Key players
- Dida RashidiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
- Johannes DanhoLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.29
- Emil StenstrandCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.48
Match prediction: Karlberg – Sollentuna
Predicted score matrix
Sollentuna →
Karlberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.6%
0–15.7%
0–24.2%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–07.2%
1–110.8%
1–27.4%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.5%
2–19.2%
2–26.4%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–03.8%
3–15.3%
3–23.7%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–13.5%
4+–22.4%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-27%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,75–1,40
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
–
Over 2,561%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Karlberg or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Mattias Mitku to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Mattias Mitku to score30%
- Erik Lundell to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sollentuna36% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- 2 · Sollentuna36% probability@3.20BetssonEV+14%reference odds
- 2 · Sollentuna36% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Karlberg | X | 2 · Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.98 | 3.50 | EV+ 14% 3.20 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.50 | EV+ 14% 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | 1.98 | 3.50 | EV+ 14% 3.20 |
Odds updated 27 Sept, 19:35
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesKarlberg 1Draw 2Sollentuna 2
Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Sollentuna FK dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Karlberg
Sollentuna
Karlberg (29–38)
Sollentuna (21–31)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Karlberg
Sollentuna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Karlberg
Sollentuna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Karlberg | Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 24 |
| xPoints | 32.9 | 28.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Karlberg | Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 378 | 389 |
| Passes against per match | 372 | 399 |
| Switches of play per match | 12.9 | 13.2 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Karlberg | Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.2 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Other | Karlberg | Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Argyrios Gkoulios (Karlberg) | Oscar Franck (Sollentuna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 62 | 36 |
| Save % | 70% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 38% |
| Claims | 77 (90%) | 72 (92%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Enköpings SK – Gefle3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Stockholm Internazionale – Assyriska FF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Tvååker – Hässleholms IF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Ängelholm – Rosengård3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- FBK Karlstad – AFC Eskilstuna3 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Piteå – Karlstad Fotboll3 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Åtvidaberg – FC Trollhättan3 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Karlberg vs Sollentuna according to our model?
The model gives Karlberg a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlberg 39%, draw 25%, Sollentuna 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.