01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Karlstad Fotboll to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Swedish Ettan9°15 km/h
Läs på svenska
PiteåLow block & directvs
Karlstad FotbollPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Karlstad Fotboll (61%)
Piteå vs Karlstad Fotboll · Swedish Ettan
1 · Piteå 18%X 20%61% Karlstad Fotboll · 2
18%
20%
61%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Piteå – Karlstad Fotboll
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Karlstad Fotboll have had the upper hand in this fixture, taking four wins out of the last five encounters against Piteå, making their dominance evident. However, with just five matches in the head-to-head sample, it’s important to weigh these results against current form and expected goals. The historical average of 4.2 goals per game indicates potential for fireworks, but it feels more like an exception to the underlying numbers than a rule to follow.
Piteå sits on 18 points, a stark contrast to Karlstad's 39, highlighting the visitors' superior season so far. The expected points (xPoints) and goals metrics (xG and xGA) further underline Karlstad's edge. With an xGA of just 0.74 compared to Piteå's 1.8, the visitors boast a robust defense that could stifle Piteå's direct approach. Meanwhile, Karlstad's control-oriented style might dictate the tempo, keeping Piteå chasing the game rather than dictating it.
The model probabilities give Karlstad a solid 61% chance of victory, reflecting their form and tactical advantages. The most likely scorelines point towards a tight contest, with 1-1 and 0-1 both having an 11% likelihood, while a 0-2 finish stands at 10%. The expected goals tally — Piteå's 0.94 against Karlstad's 1.90 — suggests a low-scoring tilt, despite the high-scoring historical average between these sides.
When it comes to betting, the model's strong lean towards Karlstad's success suggests value on the outright win. The over 2.5 goals market edges into possibility at 54%, but considering Karlstad's formidable defense and Piteå's struggle to find the net consistently, the under could be a more conservative play.
PiteåForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #30xGA #30xT #30xP/match #31Points #29
Key players
- Bekir KavurLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.27
- Fredrik JohanssonCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.30
- Siavash JamehdarFxG 0.05 · xT 0.01
Karlstad FotbollForm DLLDD
League ranking xG #22xGA #1xT #24xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- Oskar AlversLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.23
- Adam BarkRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.53
- William MiguelFxG 0.42 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Piteå – Karlstad Fotboll
Predicted score matrix
Karlstad Fotboll →
Piteå →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–110.7%
0–210.5%
0–36.7%
0–4+4.9%
1
1–05.2%
1–110.7%
1–29.9%
1–36.3%
1–4+4.6%
2
2–02.6%
2–14.9%
2–24.7%
2–33.0%
2–4+2.2%
3
3–00.8%
3–11.6%
3–21.5%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.0-210%
- 4.1-210%
- 5.0-37%
Expected goals
0,94–1,90
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
–
Over 2,554%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Karlstad Fotboll to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Kim Käck Ofordu to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Kim Käck Ofordu to score33%
- Fredrik Johansson to be booked21%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesPiteå 1Draw 0Karlstad Fotboll 4
Goals: 4–17 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- IF Karlstad Fotboll dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Piteå
Karlstad Fotboll
Piteå (27–44)
Karlstad Fotboll (35–23)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Piteå
Karlstad Fotboll
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Piteå
Karlstad Fotboll
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Piteå | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 39 |
| xPoints | 22.3 | 35.1 |
| xG per match | 0.99 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 0.74 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Piteå | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.92 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 338 | 392 |
| Passes against per match | 405 | 306 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.1 | 16.3 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Piteå | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| Other | Piteå | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Eriksson (Piteå) | Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 100 | 43 |
| Save % | 69% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 39% |
| Claims | 118 (92%) | 98 (88%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Karlberg – Sollentuna2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Kristianstad FC – AFC Malmö2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Lunds BK – Laholm2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Enköpings SK – Gefle3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Stockholm Internazionale – Assyriska FF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Tvååker – Hässleholms IF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Ängelholm – Rosengård3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- FBK Karlstad – AFC Eskilstuna3 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Åtvidaberg – FC Trollhättan3 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Piteå vs Karlstad Fotboll according to our model?
The model gives Karlstad Fotboll a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Piteå 18%, draw 20%, Karlstad Fotboll 61%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.