01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Åtvidaberg to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Swedish Ettan13°2,4 mm10 km/h
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ÅtvidabergPossession & high pressvs
FC TrollhättanPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Åtvidaberg (47%)
Åtvidaberg vs FC Trollhättan · Swedish Ettan
1 · Åtvidaberg 47%X 24%29% FC Trollhättan · 2
47%
24%
29%
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Analysis: Åtvidaberg – FC Trollhättan
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The clash at Åtvidaberg is set to be intriguing, as the hosts' aggressive high press meets FC Trollhättan's more measured possession control. Despite Trollhättan's impressive four-game winning streak, the model slightly favors Åtvidaberg with a 47% win probability. This tilt is underscored by their superior expected goals (xG) and expected points, suggesting the home side has the tactical edge. Åtvidaberg's ability to win 56% of their home matches further bolsters their case.
However, Trollhättan's recent form can't be dismissed. Their streak of victories injects confidence into a side that, while historically struggling at Åtvidaberg, may just have found their stride. It's a small head-to-head sample of three matches, but Åtvidaberg has yet to defeat Trollhättan since 2023, losing twice and drawing once. This is a crucial psychological edge for the visitors, who have clearly cracked the code against this particular opponent.
The model forecasts a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest. Yet, with over 2.5 goals favored at 60% and both teams to score at 62%, there's an expectation of a lively encounter. Åtvidaberg's attacking approach should foster opportunities, but Trollhättan's form suggests they won't be easily subdued. If the hosts can capitalize on their high-press strategy, a narrow win like 2-1 is plausible, though not guaranteed.
For bettors, the standout value lies with Åtvidaberg, given the model's 47% win probability compared to the draw at 24% and a Trollhättan win at 29%. This suggests potential value on a home win, especially if Trollhättan's momentum falters against Åtvidaberg's calculated aggression.
ÅtvidabergForm LDWLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #7xP/match #8Points #6
Key players
- Erik GrandeliusRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.33
- Haris RadetinacFxG 0.31 · xT 0.04
- Albin BergströmRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.33
FC TrollhättanForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #6xP/match #26Points #14
Key players
- Melwin BergRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.27
- Hugo TillyFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
- Filip SternerLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Åtvidaberg – FC Trollhättan
Predicted score matrix
FC Trollhättan →
Åtvidaberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–15.8%
0–24.1%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–07.6%
1–111.0%
1–27.2%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.9%
2–19.3%
2–26.3%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–04.0%
3–15.4%
3–23.7%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.6%
4+–13.5%
4+–22.4%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,74–1,35
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
–
Over 2,560%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Åtvidaberg to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Haris Radetinac to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Hugo Tilly to score28%
- Jesper Lindvall to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesÅtvidaberg 0Draw 1FC Trollhättan 2
Goals: 4–8 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Trollhättan come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Åtvidabergs FF win 56% of their home matches all-time (27 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Åtvidaberg
FC Trollhättan
Åtvidaberg (46–33)
FC Trollhättan (37–34)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Åtvidaberg
FC Trollhättan
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Åtvidaberg
FC Trollhättan
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Åtvidaberg | FC Trollhättan |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42 | 34 |
| xPoints | 34.7 | 28.2 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Åtvidaberg | FC Trollhättan |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 435 | 514 |
| Passes against per match | 344 | 307 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.9 | 13.8 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Åtvidaberg | FC Trollhättan |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.6 |
| Other | Åtvidaberg | FC Trollhättan |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Hugo Claesson (Åtvidaberg) | Jimmy Henriksson (FC Trollhättan) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 56 | 52 |
| Save % | 63% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 58% |
| Claims | 97 (92%) | 96 (92%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Lunds BK – Laholm2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Enköpings SK – Gefle3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Stockholm Internazionale – Assyriska FF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Tvååker – Hässleholms IF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Ängelholm – Rosengård3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- FBK Karlstad – AFC Eskilstuna3 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- Piteå – Karlstad Fotboll3 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Åtvidaberg vs FC Trollhättan according to our model?
The model gives Åtvidaberg a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Åtvidaberg 47%, draw 24%, FC Trollhättan 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.