Ängelholm vs Rosengård Prediction: Away win 48% (3 Oct 2026)

Swedish Ettan3 October 2026 13:00 CEST14°1,5 mm15 km/h

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ÄngelholmLow block & direct

RosengårdPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Rosengård (48%)

1 · Ängelholm 29%X 23%48% Rosengård · 2

29%

23%

48%

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Analysis: Ängelholm – Rosengård

Anna Karlsson · 25 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The text contains an unsupported claim: no betting odds (e.g., Bet365's 2.10) are provided in the FACTS.

CORRECTED TEXT:

Rosengård's high press and possession-based approach are likely to be the decisive factors as they head into their matchup against Ängelholm. With 35 points on the table compared to Ängelholm's 18, the visitors have carved out a clear edge this season. It's no wonder the model gives Rosengård a 48% chance of victory, a strong endorsement for their current form and tactical setup.

The expected goals (xG) metrics tell a similar story of Rosengård's superiority. They average 1.5 xG per match, while the hosts trail slightly with 1.2. Defensively, the gap is even more pronounced: Rosengård's xGA is a mere 1.0 compared to Ängelholm's 1.5. This contrast in defensive solidity could be crucial, especially given Ängelholm's tendency to rely on a more direct playing style. Their low defensive line might struggle to withstand the visitors' relentless attacking pressure.

Rosengård's ability to maintain possession and press high up the pitch might suffocate an Ängelholm side that prefers directness over intricate build-up play. The single head-to-head encounter this year, a win for Ängelholm, is too small a sample to overturn the season-long trends. Rosengård's overall consistency suggests that they are better positioned to adapt and exploit their opponents' weaknesses this time around.

The numbers lean towards a scoreline in Rosengård's favor, with 1-2 being a plausible outcome. The odds suggest an open game, given a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood that both teams will score. However, the edge Rosengård holds in expected goals and points paints a picture of a match that might tilt towards the visitors, especially in crucial moments.

Given their superior xPoints, a high-pressing strategy tailored to outmaneuver Ängelholm's defense could see them emerge victorious, reinforcing the model's lean towards a Rosengård triumph.

Ängelholm

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #24xGA #20xT #20xP/match #19Points #28

Key players

Vilgot CarlssonFxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
Oliver Stojanovic FredinFxG 0.15 · xT 0.53
Anton NilssonLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.10

Rosengård

Form WWLLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #9xP/match #4Points #13

Key players

Emmanuel OnotuLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.16
Joel Voelkerling PerssonFxG 0.50 · xT 0.06
Ludvig CarliusFxG 0.30 · xT 0.31

Match prediction: Ängelholm – Rosengård

Predicted score matrix

Rosengård →

Ängelholm →

0–04.4%

0–17.2%

0–26.8%

0–34.1%

0–4+2.8%

1–05.4%

1–110.6%

1–29.3%

1–35.6%

1–4+3.8%

2–03.9%

2–17.1%

2–26.4%

2–33.9%

2–4+2.6%

3–01.8%

3–13.2%

3–22.9%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-17%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,38–1,81

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

–

Over 2,562%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rosengård to win48%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rosengård to win48%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Ludvig Carlius to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Marcly Tshikupe to score32%
Mohammad Ahmadi to be booked17%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Ängelholm	X	2 · Rosengård
Betsafe	3.10	3.50	2.00
Betsson	3.10	3.50	2.00
Nordicbet	3.10	3.50	2.00

Odds updated 28 Sept, 13:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Ängelholm 1Draw 0Rosengård 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ängelholm

Rosengård

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ängelholm (27–43)

Rosengård (39–33)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ängelholm

Rosengård

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ängelholm

Rosengård

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ängelholm	Rosengård
Points	18	35
xPoints	30.8	36.5
xG per match	1.2	1.5
xGA per match	1.5	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.18

Playing style	Ängelholm	Rosengård
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.39
Field tilt	0.48	0.61
xT per match	1.3	1.5
xTA per match	1.5	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	29	33
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.5
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.28
Entries into the box per match	11	17
Entries into the box against	15	11
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.74
Passes per match	324	388
Passes against per match	387	354
Switches of play per match	17.6	16.2
Long balls per match	30	30

Set pieces	Ängelholm	Rosengård
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.22
Corners per match	4.3	6
Corners against per match	4.3	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.22	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.65

Other	Ängelholm	Rosengård
Throw-in control	0.51	0.55

The goalkeepers	Robin Streifert (Ängelholm)	Alexander Cederfelt (Rosengård)
Saves	66	56
Save %	64%	71%
xG prevented	38%	72%
Claims	157 (97%)	105 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ängelholm

Fixtures, form & tips

Rosengård

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ängelholm vs Rosengård according to our model?

The model gives Rosengård a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ängelholm 29%, draw 23%, Rosengård 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.