Eskilsminne vs AFC Malmö Prediction: Home win 38% (27 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan27 September 2026 13:00 CEST13°19 km/h

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EskilsminnePossession & high press

AFC MalmöPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Eskilsminne (38%)Soft draw

1 · Eskilsminne 38%X 25%37% AFC Malmö · 2

38%

25%

37%

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Analysis: Eskilsminne – AFC Malmö

Oscar Nilsson · 23 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

In a lone head-to-head meeting since 2023, AFC Malmö got the better of Eskilsminne with a narrow victory. However, such a small sample hardly dictates the narrative of this match, where the form and expected goals provide a richer tapestry. Both teams wield similar playing styles, utilizing possession and high pressing, which promises a tactical duel rather than a cautious affair.

Eskilsminne may sit a few points behind in the standings with 29 to AFC Malmö's 35, but the expected points tell a different story, with the hosts actually edging ahead 31.2 to 29.2. This discrepancy indicates Eskilsminne has been slightly unfortunate in converting performances into results, suggesting a competitive fixture is ahead. Their expected goals per match are marginally lower at 1.4 compared to the visitors' 1.5, but when the expected goals against are factored in, both teams appear evenly matched.

The model slightly favors Eskilsminne with a 38% chance of winning, just a shade over AFC Malmö's 37%. Most likely scorelines point towards a 1-1 draw at 10%, with a close 2-1 win for the hosts following at 9%. Given the teams' playing styles and the 66% probability for over 2.5 goals, we might see an open game with both sides finding the back of the net — supported by a 67% chance of both teams scoring.

From a betting perspective, there's intriguing value on the home side with odds of 3.05 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates Eskilsminne at a 38% likelihood to win, providing a significant edge of 16% at those odds. While no outcome is guaranteed, the numbers suggest this is a value opportunity worth considering.

Eskilsminne

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #13xGA #23xT #4xP/match #18Points #20

Key players

Hugo LindahlFxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
André GustafsonFxG 0.56 · xT -0.02
Baker AmerLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.28

AFC Malmö

Form DDDLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #22xT #2xP/match #21Points #12

Key players

Filip BohmanFxG 0.38 · xT 0.04
Fredrik MartinssonRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.42
Anton ReuterskiöldLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Eskilsminne – AFC Malmö

Predicted score matrix

AFC Malmö →

Eskilsminne →

0–03.6%

0–15.1%

0–24.4%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.4%

1–05.6%

1–19.9%

1–27.8%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.5%

2–05.2%

2–18.5%

2–27.0%

2–33.8%

2–4+2.2%

3–03.1%

3–15.1%

3–24.1%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.3%

4+–02.1%

4+–13.4%

4+–22.8%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,78–1,63

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.52

Over 2,566%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Eskilsminne or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Eskilsminne or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals66%
André Gustafson to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%
André Gustafson to score33%
Melvin Larsson to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Eskilsminne38% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
1 · Eskilsminne38% probability@3.05BetssonEV+16%reference odds
1 · Eskilsminne38% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Eskilsminne	X	2 · AFC Malmö
Betsafe	EV+ 16% 3.05	3.70	1.98
Betsson	EV+ 16% 3.05	3.70	1.98
Nordicbet	EV+ 16% 3.05	3.70	1.98

Odds updated 22 Sept, 19:35

Odds movement

10 %

32 %27 %

3.05 → 3.05

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.70 → 3.70

20 %

48 %43 %

1.98 → 1.98

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 22/09/2026 → 22/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Eskilsminne 0Draw 0AFC Malmö 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eskilsminne

AFC Malmö

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eskilsminne (38–42)

AFC Malmö (42–34)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eskilsminne

AFC Malmö

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eskilsminne

AFC Malmö

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eskilsminne	AFC Malmö
Points	29	35
xPoints	31.2	29.2
xG per match	1.4	1.5
xGA per match	1.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.32
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.32

Playing style	Eskilsminne	AFC Malmö
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.36
Field tilt	0.5	0.55
xT per match	1.6	1.6
xTA per match	1.5	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	28	30
Pressing intensity	0.52	0.49
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.29
Entries into the box per match	14	17
Entries into the box against	16	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.75
Passes per match	328	410
Passes against per match	348	353
Switches of play per match	21.2	17.6
Long balls per match	35	38

Set pieces	Eskilsminne	AFC Malmö
xG from free kicks	0.18	0.15
Corners per match	4.6	5.8
Corners against per match	5	4.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.61
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.56

Other	Eskilsminne	AFC Malmö
Throw-in control	0.54	0.61

The goalkeepers	Ian Pettersson (Eskilsminne)	Philip Mårtensson (AFC Malmö)
Saves	86	41
Save %	68%	70%
xG prevented	52%	34%
Claims	121 (98%)	69 (92%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eskilsminne

Fixtures, form & tips

AFC Malmö

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eskilsminne vs AFC Malmö according to our model?

The model gives Eskilsminne a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eskilsminne 38%, draw 25%, AFC Malmö 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.