Gefle vs Vasalund Prediction: Home win 39% (27 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan27 September 2026 16:00 CEST10°14 km/h

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GefleCounter-attacks & crosses

VasalundPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Gefle (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Vasalund @ 3.30 (+15 %)

1 · Gefle 39%X 26%35% Vasalund · 2

39%

26%

35%

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Analysis: Gefle – Vasalund

Anna Karlsson · 26 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Gefle's counter-attacking style meets a Vasalund team that favors possession control, creating an intriguing tactical clash. Despite their differing approaches, both sides are poised to find the back of the net. Notably, the hosts lead the standings with 30 points compared to the visitors' 24, giving Gefle an edge in current form. However, Vasalund's recent head-to-head superiority—winning all three encounters since 2023—raises questions about Gefle's psychological readiness. Yet, such a small sample size should be treated cautiously when weighted against season form.

The expected goals tell a nuanced story. Gefle's 1.67 xG reflects their proficiency in creating quality chances through counter-attacks, although the visitors are not far behind at 1.62 xG. Meanwhile, the xGA figures favor Gefle, who concede an average of 1.4 goals per game compared to Vasalund's 1.6. This defensive edge could tilt the balance slightly in the hosts' favor, despite Vasalund's historical upper hand.

The model forecasts a tight affair with Gefle holding a 39% chance of victory against Vasalund's 35%, and a draw sitting at 26%. The margins are slim, suggesting a real battle for supremacy. With a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance for both teams to score, a high-scoring match seems likely, informed by both teams' attacking capacities. The most likely scorelines being 1-1 at 10% and 2-1 or 1-2 at 8% each further emphasize a close contest.

For bettors, the standout angle lies in the value opportunity on offer. Over 3.5 goals, priced at 2.62 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, presents a juicy 10% edge according to the model's 42% probability. This isn't a guarantee but emerges as a compelling option in a matchup where goals appear to be the order of the day.

Gefle

Form DLWLW

League ranking xG #26xGA #19xT #23xP/match #17Points #19

Key players

Adem SipicFxG 0.29 · xT 0.09
Måns BerggrenFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
Lukas VikgrenLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.30

Vasalund

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #21xGA #27xT #25xP/match #28Points #26

Key players

Ali KhanLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.40
Marko NikolicFxG 0.16 · xT 0.24
Christopher SliwoFxG 0.52 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Gefle – Vasalund

Predicted score matrix

Vasalund →

Gefle →

0–04.0%

0–15.7%

0–24.9%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.5%

1–05.9%

1–110.4%

1–28.1%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.6%

2–05.2%

2–18.4%

2–26.8%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.1%

3–02.9%

3–14.7%

3–23.8%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.2%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.9%

4+–22.3%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-18%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,67–1,62

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.10

Over 2,564%

@1.65EV+6%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Gefle or draw (1X)63%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Gefle or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Lukas Vikgren to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Lukas Vikgren to score25%
Esaias Torppa to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Vasalund35% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
2 · Vasalund35% probability@3.30BetssonEV+15%reference odds
2 · Vasalund35% probability@3.30NordicbetEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gefle	X	2 · Vasalund
Betsafe	1.95	3.45	EV+ 15% 3.30
Betsson	1.95	3.45	EV+ 15% 3.30
Nordicbet	1.95	3.45	EV+ 15% 3.30

Odds updated 27 Sept, 13:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Gefle win since 22 September — the odds have shortened from 2.52 to 1.95 (−23%).

1-23 %

51 %31 %

2.52 → 1.95

X-1 %

37 %17 %

3.50 → 3.45

2+38 %

43 %23 %

2.40 → 3.30

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 22/09/2026 → 27/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Gefle 0Draw 0Vasalund 3

Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gefle

Vasalund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gefle (29–41)

Vasalund (34–48)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gefle

Vasalund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gefle

Vasalund

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gefle	Vasalund
Points	30	24
xPoints	31.4	27
xG per match	1.2	1.3
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.34

Playing style	Gefle	Vasalund
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.36
Field tilt	0.43	0.53
xT per match	1.3	1.3
xTA per match	1.3	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	30	29
Pressing intensity	0.47	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.75
Passes per match	331	372
Passes against per match	434	329
Switches of play per match	16.6	17.4
Long balls per match	28	32

Set pieces	Gefle	Vasalund
xG from free kicks	0.16	0.14
Corners per match	4	4.7
Corners against per match	5.1	5
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.59

Other	Gefle	Vasalund
Throw-in control	0.59	0.59

The goalkeepers	Max Croon (Gefle)	Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund)
Saves	76	61
Save %	65%	67%
xG prevented	41%	48%
Claims	106 (96%)	93 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gefle

Fixtures, form & tips

Vasalund

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gefle vs Vasalund according to our model?

The model gives Gefle a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gefle 39%, draw 26%, Vasalund 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.