01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Karlstad Fotboll to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swedish Ettan13°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
Karlstad FotbollPossession controlvs
KarlbergCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Karlstad Fotboll (62%)
Karlstad Fotboll vs Karlberg · Swedish Ettan
1 · Karlstad Fotboll 62%X 20%18% Karlberg · 2
62%
20%
18%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Karlstad Fotboll – Karlberg
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Karlstad Fotboll boasts a commanding 62% chance of victory, and with four wins and one draw in five meetings against Karlberg, history backs them. This fixture typically sees goals, averaging 3.0 per match. The home side’s possession-heavy style contrasts with the visitors' reliance on counter-attacking and crosses. However, Karlstad's stronger defense, allowing only 0.74 xGA per match, could stifle Karlberg's strategy.
The expected goals model suggests Karlstad should edge it, projecting 2.06 goals to Karlberg's 1.01. While the most likely scorelines are 2-1 or 2-0 in favor of the hosts, the relatively high probability of a 1-1 draw (10%) indicates some caution is warranted. With over 2.5 goals predicted at 59% and both teams scoring at 56%, there's a good chance of multiple goals, even if the match might not deviate from the hosts' defensive control.
Bet365 offers Karlstad Fotboll to win at odds of 1.75, which suggests a positive expected value given their historical dominance and current form. Despite the potential for goals, the smarter play aligns with the home side's stability. The likeliest outcome? A 2-0 win for Karlstad, underscoring their defensive strength and consistent superiority in this matchup.
Karlstad FotbollForm DLLDD
League ranking xG #22xGA #1xT #24xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- Oskar AlversLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.23
- Adam BarkRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.53
- William MiguelFxG 0.42 · xT 0.09
KarlbergForm DLWLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #16xT #16xP/match #15Points #22
Key players
- Noah Tesfai NegashLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.26
- Adam JemalFxG 0.44 · xT 0.17
- Hugo FernándezRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.29
Match prediction: Karlstad Fotboll – Karlberg
Predicted score matrix
Karlberg →
Karlstad Fotboll →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–14.4%
0–22.4%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–09.3%
1–19.9%
1–24.9%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.8%
3–16.8%
3–23.4%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–05.6%
4+–15.7%
4+–22.9%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,06–1,01
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.12
Over 2,559%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Karlstad Fotboll to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Kim Käck Ofordu to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Kim Käck Ofordu to score33%
- Hugo Åslund to be booked20%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Karlstad Fotboll | X | 2 · Karlberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.50 | 4.05 | 5.30 |
| Betsson | 1.50 | 4.05 | 5.30 |
| Nordicbet | 1.50 | 4.05 | 5.30 |
Odds updated 27 Sept, 13:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Karlstad Fotboll win since 22 September — the odds have shortened from 1.60 to 1.50 (−6%).
1-6 %
66 %56 %
1.60 → 1.50
X+3 %
27 %17 %
3.95 → 4.05
2+15 %
23 %13 %
4.60 → 5.30
Betsson · 11 recorded price levels · 22/09/2026 → 27/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesKarlstad Fotboll 4Draw 1Karlberg 0
Goals: 10–5 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- IF Karlstad Fotboll dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Karlstad Fotboll
Karlberg
Karlstad Fotboll (35–23)
Karlberg (29–38)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Karlstad Fotboll
Karlberg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Karlstad Fotboll
Karlberg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Karlstad Fotboll | Karlberg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39 | 28 |
| xPoints | 35.1 | 32.9 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.74 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Karlstad Fotboll | Karlberg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 392 | 378 |
| Passes against per match | 306 | 372 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.3 | 12.9 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Karlstad Fotboll | Karlberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| Other | Karlstad Fotboll | Karlberg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| The goalkeepers | Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll) | Argyrios Gkoulios (Karlberg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 43 | 62 |
| Save % | 69% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 50% |
| Claims | 98 (88%) | 77 (90%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Rosengård – Hässleholms IF26 September 2026 13:00 CEST
- FC Trollhättan – Tvååker26 September 2026 13:00 CEST
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Karlstad Fotboll vs Karlberg according to our model?
The model gives Karlstad Fotboll a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlstad Fotboll 62%, draw 20%, Karlberg 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.