Trelleborgs FF vs Ängelholm Prediction: Home win 67% (27 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan27 September 2026 13:00 CEST14°27 km/h

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Trelleborgs FFPossession & high press

ÄngelholmLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Trelleborgs FF (67%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ängelholm @ 7.40 (+7 %)

1 · Trelleborgs FF 67%X 19%15% Ängelholm · 2

67%

19%

15%

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Analysis: Trelleborgs FF – Ängelholm

Erik Lindberg · 23 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Three wins on the bounce and nine consecutive league matches with goals highlight Trelleborgs FF's potency ahead of their clash against Ängelholm. This run of form is not just a coincidence; it's a testament to the efficiency of their possession and high pressing game. The stark contrast between the hosts' attacking prowess and Ängelholm's low defensive setup is the defining narrative of this matchup.

With a 67% probability of a Trelleborgs victory, the model clearly leans toward a home win. Despite only having a single head-to-head encounter since 2023, which Trelleborgs won, it's their current form that holds more weight. The expected goals tell a similar story: Trelleborgs boast 2.27 compared to Ängelholm’s 1.04, illustrating a significant advantage in front of goal. Even xPoints and xG metrics favor the home side, suggesting that their league position is no fluke.

The most probable scorelines hover around Trelleborgs securing a 2-1 or 2-0 victory, each with a 9-10% likelihood. The over 2.5 goals market stands at 64%, pointing to a reasonably high-scoring affair, although more likely driven by Trelleborgs' imperious form rather than a back-and-forth contest. Ängelholm's direct, low-block approach hints that their best chance lies in counter-attacks, but with Trelleborgs' defensive xGA of 1.1, opportunities may be scarce.

Considering the form, statistical edge, and style of play, a 2-1 Trelleborgs win emerges as the most logical outcome. The presence of goals from both sides at 58% leans towards a slight risk of Ängelholm finding the net, but with Trelleborgs likely dominating proceedings, the home side is poised for a controlled, if not spectacular, victory.

From a betting perspective, backing Trelleborgs to win at any odds above 1.50 could be seen as value, given the model's lean and Ängelholm's struggle with just 18 points this season.

Trelleborgs FF

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #8xP/match #7Points #2

Key players

Johan BrannefalkRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.51
Oskar RuuskaRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.30
Kofi Fosuhene AsareFxG 0.27 · xT 0.04

Ängelholm

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #24xGA #20xT #20xP/match #19Points #28

Key players

Vilgot CarlssonFxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
Oliver Stojanovic FredinFxG 0.15 · xT 0.53
Anton NilssonLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Trelleborgs FF – Ängelholm

Predicted score matrix

Ängelholm →

Trelleborgs FF →

0–03.9%

0–13.6%

0–22.0%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.1%

1–18.9%

1–24.5%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.4%

2–19.8%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–07.1%

3–17.4%

3–23.8%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–06.9%

4+–17.1%

4+–23.7%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-19%
4.1-08%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,27–1,04

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.28

Over 2,564%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Trelleborgs FF to win67%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Trelleborgs FF to win67%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Vincent Poppler to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Vincent Poppler to score32%
Mohammad Ahmadi to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ängelholm15% probability@7.40BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Ängelholm15% probability@7.40BetssonEV+7%reference odds
2 · Ängelholm15% probability@7.40NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Trelleborgs FF	X	2 · Ängelholm
Betsafe	1.30	4.95	EV+ 7% 7.40
Betsson	1.30	4.95	EV+ 7% 7.40
Nordicbet	1.30	4.95	EV+ 7% 7.40

Odds updated 24 Sept, 08:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Trelleborgs FF win since 22 September — the odds have shortened from 1.39 to 1.30 (−6%).

1-6 %

70 %65 %

1.39 → 1.30

X+10 %

22 %17 %

4.50 → 4.95

2+17 %

16 %11 %

6.30 → 7.40

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 22/09/2026 → 24/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Trelleborgs FF 1Draw 0Ängelholm 0

Goals: 5–1 (⌀ 6)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Trelleborgs FF come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Trelleborgs FF have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Trelleborgs FF

Ängelholm

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Trelleborgs FF (49–27)

Ängelholm (27–43)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Trelleborgs FF

Ängelholm

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Trelleborgs FF

Ängelholm

The teams in numbers

Performance	Trelleborgs FF	Ängelholm
Points	48	18
xPoints	34.9	30.8
xG per match	1.6	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.37	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.23

Playing style	Trelleborgs FF	Ängelholm
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.6	0.48
xT per match	1.5	1.3
xTA per match	1.2	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	37	29
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.48
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.26
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.71
Passes per match	350	324
Passes against per match	297	387
Switches of play per match	16.4	17.6
Long balls per match	31	30

Set pieces	Trelleborgs FF	Ängelholm
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.14
Corners per match	5.3	4.3
Corners against per match	3.9	4.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.22
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.57

Other	Trelleborgs FF	Ängelholm
Throw-in control	0.49	0.51

The goalkeepers	Malte Påhlsson (Trelleborgs FF)	Robin Streifert (Ängelholm)
Saves	65	66
Save %	72%	64%
xG prevented	38%	38%
Claims	132 (93%)	157 (97%)

Teams & more matches this round

Trelleborgs FF

Fixtures, form & tips

Ängelholm

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Trelleborgs FF vs Ängelholm according to our model?

The model gives Trelleborgs FF a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Trelleborgs FF 67%, draw 19%, Ängelholm 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.