Umeå FC vs Hammarby TFF Prediction: Away win 57% (4 Oct 2026)

Swedish Ettan4 October 2026 17:00 CEST12°0,9 mm16 km/h

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Umeå FCPossession control

Hammarby TFFPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Hammarby TFF (57%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.40 (+11 %)

1 · Umeå FC 22%X 22%57% Hammarby TFF · 2

22%

57%

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Analysis: Umeå FC – Hammarby TFF

Oscar Nilsson · 29 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Umeå FC's possession control style faces a stern test against Hammarby TFF's high press, a tactical contrast that favors the visitors. Hammarby TFF's ability to disrupt possession with relentless pressing is a nightmare for teams that rely on controlling the ball, giving them a clear edge in this matchup. The model backs this up with a 57% win probability for Hammarby and the odds suggesting a likely 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline.

The numbers tell a compelling story. Umeå has managed to score an average of 1.6 xG per match, which matches their opponents, but their defensive frailties are laid bare with an xGA of 1.6 compared to Hammarby's much sturdier 0.81. This defensive disparity could be the decisive factor. Despite Umeå's past head-to-head win, it's only one match; a sample size that's too small to outweigh current form and expected goals.

Hammarby TFF's superior points total of 45 compared to Umeå's 29 is reflected in their slight xPoints lead, indicating they've been more efficient in converting chances into results. With both teams averaging 1.6 xG per game, the 54% chance of over 2.5 goals speaks to the potential for action, though Umeå's leaky defense might see them struggle to keep Hammarby at bay.

Given these dynamics, the most likely outcome is a 1-2 victory for Hammarby TFF. The visitors' robust press combined with Umeå's defensive vulnerabilities points towards a match where the away side capitalizes on errors. The model's 57% win probability for Hammarby reflects this lean, offering a data-backed view for those weighing the match.

Umeå FC

Form WLWWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #26xT #26xP/match #12Points #22

Key players

Stefan LindmarkCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
Emmanuel OlaworeRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.35
Robin HadadFxG 0.66 · xT -0.02

Hammarby TFF

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #2xP/match #8Points #4

Key players

Oskar MoczarnyLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.25
Noah EkLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.40
Jesper LindahlCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Umeå FC – Hammarby TFF

Predicted score matrix

Hammarby TFF →

Umeå FC →

0–06.2%

0–19.8%

0–28.7%

0–35.0%

0–4+3.2%

1–06.2%

1–111.6%

1–29.7%

1–35.5%

1–4+3.5%

2–03.6%

2–16.3%

2–25.4%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.9%

3–01.4%

3–12.3%

3–22.0%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-110%
3.1-210%
4.0-29%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,11–1,72

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.40EV+3%

Over 2,554%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hammarby TFF to win57%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hammarby TFF to win57%
Over 2.5 goals54%
William Gibson to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals54%
William Gibson to score26%
Fredrick Udoh Godwin to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.546% probability@2.40BetssonEV+11%reference odds
Under 3.569% probability@1.58BetssonEV+8%reference odds
Under 1.522% probability@4.80BetssonEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Umeå FC	X	2 · Hammarby TFF
Betsafe	4.30	3.80	1.65
Betsson	4.20	3.85	1.65
Nordicbet	4.30	3.80	1.65

Odds updated 2 Oct, 10:35

Odds movement

1+2 %

24 %19 %

4.20 → 4.30

X-1 %

26 %21 %

3.85 → 3.80

20 %

58 %53 %

1.65 → 1.65

Nordicbet · 6 recorded price levels · 29/09/2026 → 02/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Umeå FC 1Draw 0Hammarby TFF 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Umeå FC

Hammarby TFF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Umeå FC (32–40)

Hammarby TFF (50–23)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Umeå FC

Hammarby TFF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Umeå FC

Hammarby TFF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Umeå FC	Hammarby TFF
Points	29	45
xPoints	34.6	36.4
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.6	0.81
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.22

Playing style	Umeå FC	Hammarby TFF
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.4
Field tilt	0.41	0.78
xT per match	1.3	1.6
xTA per match	1.5	0.72
Won balls, offensive half	28	33
Pressing intensity	0.44	0.58
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	22
Entries into the box against	15	8
Pass completion %	0.78	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.82
Passes per match	321	485
Passes against per match	359	287
Switches of play per match	17.2	13.3
Long balls per match	31	26

Set pieces	Umeå FC	Hammarby TFF
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.19
Corners per match	5.8	5.6
Corners against per match	5.5	3.4
xG per corner	0.06	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.25	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.65

Other	Umeå FC	Hammarby TFF
Throw-in control	0.55	0.67

The goalkeepers	Pontus Eriksson (Umeå FC)	Elton Fischerström Opancar (Hammarby TFF)
Saves	54	55
Save %	67%	72%
xG prevented	45%	46%
Claims	71 (92%)	88 (94%)

Teams & more matches this round

Umeå FC

Fixtures, form & tips

Hammarby TFF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Umeå FC vs Hammarby TFF according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby TFF a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Umeå FC 22%, draw 22%, Hammarby TFF 57%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.