01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Vasalund or draw (1X)68%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Swedish Ettan14°17 km/h
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VasalundBalanced & physicalvs
ArlandaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Vasalund (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.38 (+1 %)
Vasalund vs Arlanda · Swedish Ettan
1 · Vasalund 39%X 23%38% Arlanda · 2
39%
23%
38%
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Analysis: Vasalund – Arlanda
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The numbers suggest a tightly contested match between Vasalund and Arlanda. Despite the visitors’ slightly better recent form and points tally, the hosts’ balanced and physical approach could stifle Arlanda’s counter-attacking style. With Vasalund’s 1.80 expected goals and Arlanda’s 1.52, both teams are predicted to find the net, aligning well with the 65% probability for both teams to score.
Arlanda's recent streak of three consecutive wins gives them a psychological edge, but the model leans slightly towards Vasalund. While Arlanda's 45 points versus Vasalund's 27 suggests superiority, xPoints tell a closer story: 34.6 for Arlanda against 28.6 for Vasalund. This discrepancy between actual points and expected points underscores that while Arlanda edges in results, the gap may not be as wide in underlying performance.
The small sample size of three head-to-head matches, all since 2023, sees Arlanda unbeaten with two wins and a draw. However, with the sample so limited, it’s the current form and expected goals that carry more weight. Given the expected goals, a 1-1 draw seems the most probable scoreline at 10%, followed closely by a 2-1 win for Vasalund at 9%.
For bettors seeking value, consider the over 2.5 goals market, which stands at a healthy 64% likelihood. While the head-to-head record might hint at a lean towards Arlanda, the numbers and the balanced, physical play of Vasalund suggest a more cautious approach. Smart money might lean on the over 2.5 goals, particularly if offered favorable odds by Unibet or similar bookmakers.
VasalundForm LLDLW
League ranking xG #22xGA #23xT #27xP/match #28Points #25
Key players
- Ali KhanLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.40
- Marko NikolicFxG 0.18 · xT 0.22
- Christopher SliwoFxG 0.52 · xT 0.05
ArlandaForm LLWWW
League ranking xG #17xGA #16xT #15xP/match #13Points #5
Key players
- Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.26
- Isac AntholmLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.12
- Anton CharbachiLWxG 0.51 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Vasalund – Arlanda
Predicted score matrix
Arlanda →
Vasalund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.9%
0–15.2%
0–24.2%
0–32.1%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–06.2%
1–110.2%
1–27.5%
1–33.8%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–05.9%
2–18.9%
2–26.8%
2–33.4%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–03.5%
3–15.4%
3–24.1%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–02.4%
4+–13.6%
4+–22.8%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-06%
Expected goals
1,80–1,52
Both teams to score
65%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@2.28
Over 2,564%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Vasalund or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Elias Alarcon Mac Callum to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score65%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Elias Alarcon Mac Callum to score29%
- Esaias Torppa to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.542% probability@2.38BetssonEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Vasalund | X | 2 · Arlanda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Betsson | 2.38 | 3.55 | 2.52 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 00:35
Odds movement
1+6 %
41 %36 %
2.32 → 2.45
X-4 %
29 %24 %
3.50 → 3.35
20 %
38 %33 %
2.55 → 2.55
Nordicbet · 4 recorded price levels · 29/09/2026 → 01/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesVasalund 0Draw 1Arlanda 2
Goals: 2–6 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Arlanda come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Vasalund
Arlanda
Vasalund (35–48)
Arlanda (42–27)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Vasalund
Arlanda
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Vasalund
Arlanda
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Vasalund | Arlanda |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 27 | 45 |
| xPoints | 28.6 | 34.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Vasalund | Arlanda |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 371 | 260 |
| Passes against per match | 331 | 339 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.4 | 17.6 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Vasalund | Arlanda |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| Other | Vasalund | Arlanda |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.44 |
| The goalkeepers | Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund) | Adam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 64 | 89 |
| Save % | 68% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 60% |
| Claims | 102 (92%) | 120 (93%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Karlberg – Sollentuna2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Kristianstad FC – AFC Malmö2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Lunds BK – Laholm2 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Enköpings SK – Gefle3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Stockholm Internazionale – Assyriska FF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Ängelholm – Rosengård3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Tvååker – Hässleholms IF3 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- FBK Karlstad – AFC Eskilstuna3 October 2026 15:00 CEST
- IFK Stocksund – Järfälla3 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Vasalund vs Arlanda according to our model?
The model gives Vasalund a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vasalund 39%, draw 23%, Arlanda 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.