GIF Sundsvall vs Ljungskile: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan20 September 2026 13:00 CESTNP3 Arena, Sundsvall12°20 km/h

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GIF SundsvallLow block & direct

3–2

LjungskilePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Ljungskile (50%)Best value by the model: 1 · GIF Sundsvall @ 4.54 (+17 %)

1 · GIF Sundsvall 26%X 24%50% Ljungskile · 2

26%

24%

50%

Analysis: GIF Sundsvall – Ljungskile

Erik Lindberg · 19 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Ljungskile's control in possession against Sundsvall's direct, low-defensive approach sets the stage for this Superettan meeting. The visitors are favored to win, with a dominant 50% model probability, reflecting their superior position both in the standings and in expected metrics. Ljungskile's tendency to control the game contrasts sharply with Sundsvall's struggle to defend, evident in the hosts' concerning xGA of 1.5 per match. This imbalance points towards a match where the visitors may find more opportunities to exploit Sundsvall's defensive vulnerabilities.

The numbers underpin the likelihood of a Ljungskile victory. Though the head-to-head record is too small to carry weight, it leans towards the visitors, who won the sole encounter since 2024. With 28 points to Sundsvall's 16 and a slight edge in xPoints, Ljungskile's form is not just a flash in the pan but a continuation of their season's trajectory. The xG figures further reinforce this narrative: Ljungskile's 1.5 xG per match dwarfs Sundsvall's 0.92, suggesting the visitors are better equipped to find the net.

The forecast of over 2.5 goals at 57% adds another layer to this analysis. While Sundsvall's attacking output might be limited, the high probability of both teams scoring at 59% indicates they might still contribute. Ljungskile's expected goals of 1.70 suggest they will likely breach Sundsvall's defense at least once, if not more. The model's most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), followed by 1-2 and 0-1 (9% each), with 1-1 standing out as the sharpest single prediction.

Given Ljungskile's superior stats and the model's lean, this points to a dry, statistical case for backing the visitors.

GIF Sundsvall

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #16xP/match #12Points #16

Key players

Taiki KagayamaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
Suwaibou KebbehFxG 0.32 · xT 0.03
Miguel SandbergLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.24

Ljungskile

Form DLDWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #10xT #3xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Issaka SeiduLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.20
Filip AmbrozCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.33
Lukas Lindholm CornerFxG 0.20 · xT 0.02

Final score

3 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 26% · Draw 24% · Ljungskile 50%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - GIF SundsvallBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,34fair 12,29+0 %

Hit

Matchresultat - Ljungskile SKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,05fair 6,68-24 %

Miss

Match prediction: GIF Sundsvall – Ljungskile

Predicted score matrix

Ljungskile →

GIF Sundsvall →

0–05.6%

0–18.6%

0–27.6%

0–34.3%

0–4+2.7%

1–06.2%

1–111.5%

1–29.4%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.3%

2–04.1%

2–17.0%

2–25.9%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.1%

3–01.7%

3–12.9%

3–22.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.2%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,25–1,70

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.16

Over 2,557%

@1.71

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ljungskile to win50%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ljungskile to win50%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Lukas Lindholm Corner to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Lukas Lindholm Corner to score26%
Alper Demirol to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · GIF Sundsvall26% probability@4.54PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
1 · GIF Sundsvall26% probability@4.19BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
1 · GIF Sundsvall26% probability@4.19BetssonEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · GIF Sundsvall	X	2 · Ljungskile
Betfair Exchange	1.13	1.13	1.13
Betsafe	EV+ 8% 4.19	3.82	1.78
Betsson	EV+ 8% 4.19	3.82	1.78
Nordicbet	EV+ 8% 4.19	3.82	1.78
Pinnacle	EV+ 17% 4.54	3.97	1.72

Odds updated 20 Sept, 12:25

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Ljungskile win since 16 September — the odds have shortened from 1.88 to 1.72 (−8%).

1+23 %

28 %18 %

3.70 → 4.54

X+6 %

29 %19 %

3.76 → 3.97

2-8 %

57 %47 %

1.88 → 1.72

Over 2,5+1 %

62 %52 %

1.69 → 1.71

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 16/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

GIF Sundsvall 0Draw 0Ljungskile 1

Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

GIF Sundsvall

Ljungskile

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

GIF Sundsvall (16–51)

Ljungskile (31–33)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

GIF Sundsvall

Ljungskile

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

GIF Sundsvall

Ljungskile

The teams in numbers

Performance	GIF Sundsvall	Ljungskile
Points	16	28
xPoints	30.7	33.5
xG per match	0.92	1.5
xGA per match	1.5	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.31

Playing style	GIF Sundsvall	Ljungskile
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.36
Field tilt	0.36	0.48
xT per match	1.1	1.6
xTA per match	1.7	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	28	32
Pressing intensity	0.5	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.29
Entries into the box per match	10	17
Entries into the box against	15	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.69
Passes per match	303	338
Passes against per match	483	346
Switches of play per match	16.4	19.3
Long balls per match	30	37

Set pieces	GIF Sundsvall	Ljungskile
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.16
Corners per match	4.5	5.8
Corners against per match	5.5	5.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.64

Other	GIF Sundsvall	Ljungskile
Throw-in control	0.57	0.53

The goalkeepers	Jonas Olsson (GIF Sundsvall)	Lukas Eriksson (Ljungskile)
Saves	85	84
Save %	64%	72%
xG prevented	45%	56%
Claims	137 (93%)	146 (95%)

Teams & more matches this round

GIF Sundsvall

Fixtures, form & tips

Ljungskile

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins GIF Sundsvall vs Ljungskile according to our model?

The model gives Ljungskile a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: GIF Sundsvall 26%, draw 24%, Ljungskile 50%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.