Helsingborgs IF vs Norrby: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan20 September 2026 15:00 CESTOlympia, Helsingborg15°5,0 mm46 km/h

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Helsingborgs IFPossession control

0–0

NorrbyCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Helsingborgs IF (39%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.85 (+17 %)

1 · Helsingborgs IF 39%X 24%37% Norrby · 2

39%

24%

37%

Analysis: Helsingborgs IF – Norrby

Marcus Johansson · 19 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

FAKTA vs TEXT check: All statistics (probabilities, xG, xPoints, odds, form) match correctly. However, one error was found:

The text states the match "leans towards a narrow 2-1 home victory," but per the facts, the most likely scoreline is actually 1-1 (10%), with 2-1 being second most likely (9%).

Corrected text:

Four consecutive losses hang over Norrby like a storm cloud as they visit Helsingborgs IF, a side clinging to a slight statistical edge with a 39% win probability. Although the head-to-head sample is limited to a single draw, form and expected goals paint a more robust picture. Helsingborgs, with their possession-heavy approach, find themselves slightly favored at home despite the visitors' stronger underlying metrics in expected points and goals.

The match is primed for goals, with a 63% chance of over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to net. Rain could dampen the tempo, but it's factored into the numbers. Helsingborgs' style aims to control the flow, potentially stifling Norrby's counter-attacking thrust. Yet, Norrby's higher xG per match suggests potency in transition, which could exploit any lapse from the hosts.

Value hunters note: despite Norrby's losing streak, they're priced attractively at 3.16 odds across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates their win chance at 37%, offering a tempting 17% edge. This clash leans towards a tight 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline, though a narrow 2-1 home win follows close behind — and don't ignore the statistical scent of value lingering with the visitors.

Helsingborgs IF

Form LDLWL

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #5xP/match #16Points #10

Key players

Max SvenssonLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.50
Julian LarssonFxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Alexander JohanssonFxG 0.40 · xT 0.04

Norrby

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #15xP/match #3Points #14

Key players

Julius JohanssonFxG 0.20 · xT 0.16
Azeez Temitope YusufFxG 0.27 · xT 0.01
Olle BacklundRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.20

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Helsingborgs IF 39% · Draw 24% · Norrby 37%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Helsingborgs IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,63fair 5,38+23 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Norrby IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,28fair 10,21-9 %

Miss

Match prediction: Helsingborgs IF – Norrby

Predicted score matrix

Norrby →

Helsingborgs IF →

0–04.1%

0–15.0%

0–23.6%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.8%

1–06.9%

1–110.2%

1–26.8%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.8%

2–19.4%

2–26.5%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.4%

3–04.3%

3–15.9%

3–24.1%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.9%

4+–03.1%

4+–14.3%

4+–23.0%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-07%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,89–1,38

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.02

Over 2,563%

@1.81EV+13%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Helsingborgs IF or draw (1X)72%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Helsingborgs IF or draw (1X)72%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Max Svensson to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Max Svensson to score32%
Daouda Amadou to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.541% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
Over 3.541% probability@2.85BetssonEV+17%reference odds
Over 3.541% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Helsingborgs IF	X	2 · Norrby
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Betsafe	2.23	3.41	EV+ 15% 3.11
Betsson	2.23	3.41	EV+ 15% 3.11
Nordicbet	2.23	3.41	EV+ 15% 3.11
Pinnacle	2.24	3.48	EV+ 17% 3.17

Odds updated 20 Sept, 14:23

Odds movement

1+8 %

46 %41 %

2.07 → 2.24

X-7 %

29 %24 %

3.74 → 3.48

20 %

32 %27 %

3.17 → 3.17

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Helsingborgs IF 0Draw 1Norrby 0

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 6)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Norrby IF have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Helsingborgs IF

Norrby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Helsingborgs IF (36–45)

Norrby (28–35)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Helsingborgs IF

Norrby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Helsingborgs IF

Norrby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Helsingborgs IF	Norrby
Points	29	23
xPoints	25.3	37.1
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1.5	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.25

Playing style	Helsingborgs IF	Norrby
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.35
Field tilt	0.53	0.37
xT per match	1.6	1.3
xTA per match	1.4	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	33	31
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.25
Entries into the box per match	14	12
Entries into the box against	13	17
Pass completion %	0.79	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.67
Passes per match	414	295
Passes against per match	356	455
Switches of play per match	13.6	19.4
Long balls per match	27	32

Set pieces	Helsingborgs IF	Norrby
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.14
Corners per match	5.2	5.1
Corners against per match	4.7	5.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.49

Other	Helsingborgs IF	Norrby
Throw-in control	0.55	0.44

The goalkeepers	Johan Brattberg (Helsingborgs IF)	Sebastian Banozic (Norrby)
Saves	78	76
Save %	68%	69%
xG prevented	45%	51%
Claims	148 (93%)	154 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

Helsingborgs IF

Fixtures, form & tips

Norrby

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Helsingborgs IF vs Norrby according to our model?

The model gives Helsingborgs IF a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Helsingborgs IF 39%, draw 24%, Norrby 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.