KuPS vs Trabzonspor: Prediction & Odds (15 Oct 2026)

Conference League15 October 20267°22 km/h

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KuPSCounter-attacks & crosses

2–4

Trabzonspor

The model's lean: 1 · KuPS (40%)

1 · KuPS 40%X 24%36% Trabzonspor · 2

40%

24%

36%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for KuPS vs Trabzonspor (Conference League, Thursday, 15 October 2026): KuPS win 40%, draw 24%, Trabzonspor win 36%. Expected goals (xG): KuPS 1.39, Trabzonspor 1.38. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: KuPS or draw 64%, Trabzonspor or draw 60%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 7 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: KuPS – Trabzonspor

Erik Lindberg · 13 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: In this tight Conference League matchup, the model gives a slight lean towards the hosts, with KuPS at a 40% probability of winning, draw at 24%, and Trabzonspor at 36%. The most telling insight is the nearly dead-even expected goals: KuPS at 1.39 and Trabzonspor at 1.38. Such numbers suggest a closely contested clash where neither side is likely to dominate.

The most likely scorelines according to the data are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), and 1-0 (8%). This indicates a strong possibility of a low-scoring affair, with the potential for KuPS to edge out a win. However, the 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood for both teams to score highlight the uncertainty and the fine margins that could tip the scales in either direction.

While historical head-to-head data is sparse and offers limited insight, the current form and expected goals paint a clearer picture. The fine balance of expected goals suggests neither KuPS nor Trabzonspor is likely to dominate, making this a genuinely open contest.

The sharpest angle lies in the betting value for KuPS. With odds of 6.8 at both Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 6.0 at LeoVegas, the model's 40% win probability reveals a substantial edge. This makes the home side an attractive value play, offering a significant 169% and 137% edge respectively. While not a guarantee, savvy bettors should consider this potential advantage when placing their stakes.

KuPS

Form LDDLL

League ranking xG #66xGA #58xT #53xP/match #70Points #28

Key players

Clinton AntwiLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Doni ArifiCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Ibrahim CisséCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09

Trabzonspor

Form DD

Key players

Mustafa EskihellacLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
Stefan SavicCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Ernest MuciRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
Numbers from Turkish Super League 2026

Final score

2 – 4

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: KuPS 40% · Draw 24% · Trabzonspor 36%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - KuPSBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 17,66fair 9,76+81 %

Miss

Matchresultat - TrabzonsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,60fair 9,96-54 %

Hit

Match prediction: KuPS – Trabzonspor

Predicted score matrix

Trabzonspor →

KuPS →

0–06.6%

0–18.3%

0–25.9%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.3%

1–08.4%

1–112.4%

1–28.3%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.1%

2–18.4%

2–25.8%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.8%

3–13.9%

3–22.7%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-18%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,39–1,38

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.19EV+4%

Over 2,552%

@1.69

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance KuPS or draw (1X)63%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance KuPS or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Jaime José Moreno Ciorciari to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Jaime José Moreno Ciorciari to score26%
Valentín Román Gasc to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · KuPS40% probability@6.23PinnacleEV+146%reference odds
1 · KuPS40% probability@5.40BetsafeEV+114%reference odds
1 · KuPS40% probability@5.40NordicbetEV+114%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · KuPS	X	2 · Trabzonspor
Betsafe	EV+ 114% 5.40	EV+ 1% 4.15	1.52
LeoVegas	EV+ 106% 5.20	EV+ 2% 4.20	1.55
Nordicbet	EV+ 114% 5.40	EV+ 1% 4.15	1.52
Pinnacle	EV+ 146% 6.23	EV+ 12% 4.59	1.49

Odds updated 15 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

10 %

18 %13 %

6.21 → 6.23

X0 %

23 %18 %

4.57 → 4.59

2+2 %

67 %62 %

1.46 → 1.49

Over 2,50 %

58 %53 %

1.69 → 1.69

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 15/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

KuPS

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

KuPS (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

KuPS

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

KuPS

The goalkeepers	Johannes Kreidl (KuPS)	Trabzonspor
Saves	35	–
Save %	81%	–
xG prevented	69%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

KuPS

Fixtures, form & tips

Trabzonspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins KuPS vs Trabzonspor according to our model?

The model gives KuPS a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: KuPS 40%, draw 24%, Trabzonspor 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in KuPS vs Trabzonspor?

The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for KuPS and 1.38 for Trabzonspor, 2.77 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

KuPS or draw (1X) 64%, Trabzonspor or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.