Rapid Wien vs WSG Tirol: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Austrian Bundesliga19 September 202617°5 km/h

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Rapid WienCounter-attacks & crosses

WSG TirolPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Rapid Wien (71%)

1 · Rapid Wien 71%X 17%12% WSG Tirol · 2

71%

17%

12%

Analysis: Rapid Wien – WSG Tirol

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: A 71% model probability for the hosts sets the stage, with Rapid Wien heavily favored against WSG Tirol. The expected goals reflect this, predicting 2.26 for the home side versus just 0.96 for the visitors. This disparity is mirrored in the likelihood of a 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline, each at 10%. Though a small sample, the head-to-head gives little hope to Tirol, having failed to defeat Rapid Wien in four meetings since 2022.

Rapid Wien's style of counter-attacking and crossing should exploit any gaps in Tirol's possession-focused approach. The visitors struggle defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 xGA per match, whereas the hosts maintain a more controlled back line with 1.2 xGA. This defensive solidity complements their robust home form, winning 59% of their matches in Vienna.

The over 2.5 goals line sits at 63%, suggesting a lively game. However, with both teams to score at 56%, there's uncertainty about Tirol's ability to break through. Given the model's clear preference, a home win presents value. The numbers lean towards a 2-0 victory for the hosts, with the over/under 2.5 goals market tilting slightly towards the over.

Rapid Wien

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #2xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Ercan KaraFxG 0.78 · xT -0.09
Yusuf DemirRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.34
Jannes-Kilian HornLWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.23

WSG Tirol

Form DLLWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #11xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

David GugganigCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
Moritz OswaldLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
Marco BorasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Rapid Wien – WSG Tirol

Predicted score matrix

WSG Tirol →

Rapid Wien →

0–04.2%

0–13.6%

0–21.8%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.7%

1–18.9%

1–24.2%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.2%

2–19.8%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.7%

3–17.4%

3–23.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–07.4%

4+–17.1%

4+–23.4%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-19%
4.1-09%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,26–0,96

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,537%

@2.60

Over 2,563%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rapid Wien to win71%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rapid Wien to win71%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Matthias Seidl to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Matthias Seidl to score35%
Marco Boras to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Rapid Wien	X	2 · WSG Tirol
Bet365	1.40	4.50	6.50

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:11

Odds movement

10 %

68 %63 %

1.40 → 1.40

X0 %

23 %18 %

4.50 → 4.50

20 %

17 %12 %

6.50 → 6.50

Bet365 · 2 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Rapid Wien 2Draw 2WSG Tirol 0

Goals: 7–2 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

SK Rapid Vienna win 59% of their home matches all-time (37 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rapid Wien

WSG Tirol

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rapid Wien (15–7)

WSG Tirol (7–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rapid Wien

WSG Tirol

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rapid Wien

WSG Tirol

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rapid Wien	WSG Tirol
Points	12	7
xPoints	9.2	7.9
xG per match	2.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.92	0.46
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.29

Playing style	Rapid Wien	WSG Tirol
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.27
Field tilt	0.65	0.34
xT per match	1.5	0.64
xTA per match	0.86	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	24	20
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.23
Entries into the box per match	15	9
Entries into the box against	12	16
Pass completion %	0.84	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.72
Passes per match	508	328
Passes against per match	360	408
Switches of play per match	27.4	17.1
Long balls per match	33	25

Set pieces	Rapid Wien	WSG Tirol
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.01
Corners per match	6	4.5
Corners against per match	3	6.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.75

Other	Rapid Wien	WSG Tirol
Throw-in control	0.71	0.7

The goalkeepers	Niklas Hedl (Rapid Wien)	Salko Hamzic (WSG Tirol)
Saves	20	22
Save %	74%	79%
xG prevented	48%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rapid Wien

Fixtures, form & tips

WSG Tirol

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rapid Wien vs WSG Tirol according to our model?

The model gives Rapid Wien a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rapid Wien 71%, draw 17%, WSG Tirol 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.