Ried vs Wolfsberg: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Austrian Bundesliga19 September 202616°18 km/h

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RiedPossession control

WolfsbergLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Ried (54%)

1 · Ried 54%X 26%19% Wolfsberg · 2

54%

26%

19%

Analysis: Ried – Wolfsberg

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT:

SV Ried's possession-centric approach shapes their home advantage and is central to understanding their matchup against Wolfsberg. The hosts have consistently outperformed the visitors in terms of expected goals (1.7 to 0.89) and expected points (6.9 to 5.5), indicating a trend towards dominance not fully reflected in the league table. While Wolfsberg has a slight points lead, Ried’s underlying metrics suggest they are the stronger side.

In their last five encounters, Ried has emerged victorious three times, with the visitors claiming just one win. Although this head-to-head sample is small, it highlights a pattern: Ried's ability to control games has been a thorn in Wolfsberg's side. The clash of styles is stark: Ried's possession play against Wolfsberg's low-block defense and direct counterattacks.

The model's probabilities favor Ried at 54%, with an expected goals tally of 1.77 compared to Wolfsberg's 1.02. This suggests a likely home win, reinforced by Ried's ability to exploit gaps in a Wolfsberg defense that concedes 1.9 xGA per match. Despite Wolfsberg's defensive posture, Ried's strategic control seems poised to crack it.

While the most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 1-0, with 11% each, Ried's attacking prowess hints at a probable 2-1 victory. The lean towards over 2.5 goals at 53% aligns with their capabilities, even if the margin is slim. Both teams to score also stands at 53%, indicating potential vulnerability on both ends.

Where the sharpest edge lies is in highlighting Ried's dominance at home. This matchup leans towards a Ried victory, with an eye on a 2-1 scoreline, in light of their superior xG metrics and head-to-head success.

Ried

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #6xP/match #6Points #9

Key players

Yussef NasraweCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Moegamat Yusuf MaartCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Evan Eghosa AisowierenFxG 0.40 · xT 0.00

Wolfsberg

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #12xP/match #9Points #7

Key players

Giacomo VrioniFxG 0.50 · xT 0.04
Nicolas WimmerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Donis AvdijajFxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Ried – Wolfsberg

Predicted score matrix

Wolfsberg →

Ried →

0–06.5%

0–16.0%

0–23.2%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.6%

1–111.4%

1–25.7%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.6%

2–19.8%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.6%

3–15.8%

3–22.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.7%

4+–13.8%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,77–1,02

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.15EV+2%

Over 2,553%

@1.67

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ried to win54%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ried to win54%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Joris Boguo to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Joris Boguo to score22%
Raffael Behounek to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Ried54% probability@2.20Bet365EV+20%reference odds
Both teams to score: No47% probability@2.25Bet365EV+5%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.15Bet365EV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ried	X	2 · Wolfsberg
Bet365	EV+ 20% 2.20	3.50	2.88

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:04

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Ried 3Draw 1Wolfsberg 1

Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 1,6)

Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

SV Ried dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ried

Wolfsberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ried (6–10)

Wolfsberg (6–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ried

Wolfsberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ried

Wolfsberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ried	Wolfsberg
Points	4	5
xPoints	6.9	5.5
xG per match	1.7	0.89
xGA per match	1.5	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.4

Playing style	Ried	Wolfsberg
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.33
Field tilt	0.6	0.28
xT per match	1.1	0.55
xTA per match	0.93	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	29	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.25
Entries into the box per match	14	7
Entries into the box against	11	17
Pass completion %	0.76	0.66
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.61
Passes per match	349	230
Passes against per match	324	391
Switches of play per match	22.3	20.7
Long balls per match	32	31

Set pieces	Ried	Wolfsberg
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.02
Corners per match	4.5	3.5
Corners against per match	4.1	8.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.45

Other	Ried	Wolfsberg
Throw-in control	0.7	0.65

The goalkeepers	Andreas Leitner (Ried)	Lukas Gütlbauer (Wolfsberg)
Saves	12	13
Save %	55%	72%
xG prevented	36%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ried

Fixtures, form & tips

Wolfsberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ried vs Wolfsberg according to our model?

The model gives Ried a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ried 54%, draw 26%, Wolfsberg 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.