01 · 2 legs
Safe
- LASK to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Austrian Bundesliga16°9 km/h
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HartbergCounter-attacks & crossesvs
LASKPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · LASK (77%)Best value by the model: No @ 2.25 (+17 %)
Hartberg vs LASK · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Hartberg 8%X 15%77% LASK · 2
15%
77%
Analysis: Hartberg – LASK
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
LASK has dominated their recent matchups against Hartberg, winning four out of nine encounters since 2022, while the hosts have yet to claim a victory. This sets the stage for another uphill battle for Hartberg, whose counter-attacking style could struggle against LASK's relentless high press and possession strategy. The visitors are riding high on a nine-match winning streak, having scored in 14 consecutive league games, which only amplifies the challenges facing the home side.
Hartberg's odds of an upset appear slim, with a win probability of just 8% according to the models. This is underscored by their expected goals standing at a mere 0.72 compared to LASK's imposing 2.80. The numbers paint a picture of a likely one-sided affair, with the most probable scorelines being 0-2 and 0-3 in favor of LASK. The visitors' ability to sustain pressure and convert chances could prove decisive, especially against a Hartberg defense conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match.
Despite the one-sided expectations, Hartberg's playstyle, focusing on counter-attacks and crosses, suggests they may have sporadic opportunities. However, breaking through LASK's disciplined defense, which averages just 0.39 xGA per match, will be a monumental task. With an over 2.5 goals probability at 68%, the model sees a high-scoring outcome as more likely than not, but Hartberg's chances of contributing to that tally seem limited.
With LASK's form and statistical superiority, the expected narrative of the match strongly favors the visitors.
HartbergForm LLLWW
League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #9xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Angelo GattermayerFxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
- Tobias KainzRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
- Marco HoffmannFxG 0.44 · xT 0.00
LASKForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Moses UsorFxG 0.86 · xT 0.17
- George BelloLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
- Christoph LangLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Hartberg – LASK
Predicted score matrix
LASK →
Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.2%
0–18.2%
0–211.7%
0–310.9%
0–4+15.0%
1
1–02.0%
1–16.1%
1–28.3%
1–37.8%
1–4+10.8%
2
2–00.8%
2–12.1%
2–23.0%
2–32.8%
2–4+3.9%
3
3–00.2%
3–10.5%
3–20.7%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–00.0%
4+–10.1%
4+–20.1%
4+–30.1%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-212%
- 2.0-311%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-38%
Expected goals
0,72–2,80
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,532%
–
Over 2,568%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- LASK to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Robert Ljubičić to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Robert Ljubičić to score32%
- Benjamin Markuš to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Both teams to score: No52% probability@2.25Bet365EV+17%reference odds
- 2 · LASK77% probability@1.48Bet365EV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hartberg | X | 2 · LASK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 4.33 | EV+ 14% 1.48 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:04
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesHartberg 0Draw 5LASK 4
Goals: 8–16 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- LASK dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 9 meetings.
- LASK come into this round on 9 straight wins.
- LASK have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hartberg
LASK
Hartberg (5–8)
LASK (15–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hartberg
LASK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hartberg
LASK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hartberg | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 15 |
| xPoints | 5.4 | 12.1 |
| xG per match | 0.93 | 2.7 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 0.39 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.57 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.39 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Hartberg | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.26 | 0.8 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 18 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 19 | 4 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 289 | 447 |
| Passes against per match | 430 | 273 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.7 | 51.1 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 56 |
| Set pieces | Hartberg | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 8.2 |
| Corners against per match | 9.6 | 0.81 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.68 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 1 |
| Other | Hartberg | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Ármin Pécsi (Hartberg) | Lukas Jungwirth (LASK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 6 |
| Save % | 71% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 55% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hartberg vs LASK according to our model?
The model gives LASK a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hartberg 8%, draw 15%, LASK 77%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.