Standard Liège vs Kortrijk Prediction: Home win 60% (31 Oct 2026)

Belgian Pro League31 October 2026Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Liège10°11 km/h

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Standard LiègePossession control

KortrijkPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Standard Liège (60%)

1 · Standard Liège 60%X 24%16% Kortrijk · 2

60%

24%

16%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Standard Liège vs Kortrijk (Belgian Pro League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Standard Liège win 60%, draw 24%, Kortrijk win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Standard Liège 2.08, Kortrijk 0.97. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Standard Liège or draw 84%, Kortrijk or draw 40%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Standard Liège – Kortrijk

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT:

In the last two head-to-head meetings since 2023, Standard Liège and Kortrijk have split the victories with one win each. While this small sample suggests an evenly matched contest, the current form and underlying metrics tell a different story. The hosts come into this game on the back of a concerning three-game losing streak, which could be weighing heavily on their confidence. However, they still carry the edge in both points and expected metrics, suggesting potential for a rebound.

Standard Liège have amassed 11 points this season, compared to Kortrijk's 3, reflecting an overall stronger performance. Their expected goals (xG) figure of 1.6 per match far outstrips Kortrijk's 0.88, highlighting a more potent attack. Defensively, though, Liège's xGA of 1.5 is better than Kortrijk's 1.9, indicating a slight edge in the back line as well. The model gives Liège a 60% chance to take all three points, favoring them as clear favorites in this matchup.

Despite both teams employing a possession control style, the expected goals suggest that Liège have more firepower to exploit this approach. The most likely scorelines — 2-0, 2-1, and 1-1 — each have a 10% probability, underscoring the potential for a competitive game. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at 59%, with both teams to score at 55%, indicating a slight lean towards a higher-scoring affair.

There's value in backing Standard Liège with their home advantage, even as they look to shake off their recent slump. With the numbers clearly stacking up in their favor, Liège appears poised to make a statement and secure a vital win.

Standard Liège

Form WWLLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #11xP/match #9Points #8

Key players

Ibrahim KaramokoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
Dennis Yerai Eckert AyensaFxG 0.43 · xT 0.06
Adnane AbidLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.24

Kortrijk

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #14xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Brecht DejaegereCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Shandre CampbellRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.16
Jamie John RocheCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Standard Liège – Kortrijk

Predicted score matrix

Kortrijk →

Standard Liège →

0–05.0%

0–14.3%

0–22.2%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.6%

1–19.9%

1–24.6%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.2%

2–19.9%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–07.1%

3–16.9%

3–23.3%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.9%

4+–15.8%

4+–22.8%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-110%
4.1-010%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,08–0,97

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Standard Liège to win60%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Standard Liège to win60%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Dennis Yerai Eckert Ayensa to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Dennis Yerai Eckert Ayensa to score32%
Jamie John Roche to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Standard Liège 1Draw 0Kortrijk 1

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

Standard Liege have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Standard Liège

Kortrijk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Standard Liège (13–13)

Kortrijk (2–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Standard Liège

Kortrijk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Standard Liège

Kortrijk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Standard Liège	Kortrijk
Points	11	3
xPoints	11.4	8.1
xG per match	1.6	0.88
xGA per match	1.5	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.43	0.3

Playing style	Standard Liège	Kortrijk
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.28
Field tilt	0.56	0.35
xT per match	1	0.9
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	26	20
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.21
Entries into the box per match	15	8
Entries into the box against	14	16
Pass completion %	0.74	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.66
Passes per match	382	321
Passes against per match	350	428
Switches of play per match	26.9	25.2
Long balls per match	36	32

Set pieces	Standard Liège	Kortrijk
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.05
Corners per match	6.1	3.5
Corners against per match	5.1	5.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.58

Other	Standard Liège	Kortrijk
Throw-in control	0.69	0.7

The goalkeepers	Matthieu Epolo (Standard Liège)	Marko Ilić (Kortrijk)
Saves	21	20
Save %	62%	63%
xG prevented	36%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Standard Liège

Fixtures, form & tips

Kortrijk

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Standard Liège vs Kortrijk according to our model?

The model gives Standard Liège a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Standard Liège 60%, draw 24%, Kortrijk 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Standard Liège vs Kortrijk?

The model expects 2.08 goals (xG) for Standard Liège and 0.97 for Kortrijk, 3.05 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Standard Liège or draw (1X) 84%, Kortrijk or draw (X2) 40% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.