Czech First League11°22 km/h

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    SlováckoSlováckoLow block & direct
    1–2
    Zbrojovka BrnoZbrojovka BrnoPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Zbrojovka Brno (43%)

    Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno · Czech First League

    1 · Slovácko 30%X 27%43% Zbrojovka Brno · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno (Czech First League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Slovácko win 30%, draw 27%, Zbrojovka Brno win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Slovácko 1.23, Zbrojovka Brno 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Slovácko or draw 57%, Zbrojovka Brno or draw 70%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Slovácko – Zbrojovka Brno

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Zbrojovka Brno’s 16 points to Slovácko’s 7 tells a story of disparity in form. The visitors have shown more intent, reflected in their xPoints of 15.1 versus Slovácko's 10.4. Despite the hosts' direct style, it's their defensive frailty that stands out, conceding xGA of 1.6 per match. Meanwhile, Brno's possession-centric play has earned them an xG edge at 1.2, underlining their capacity to control games and create opportunities.

    In terms of the model's match probabilities, Zbrojovka's 43% chance to win is notable, even if the model's prediction isn't overwhelmingly in their favor. The most likely outcomes are closely contested, with a 1-1 draw (13%) leading the probabilities, but a narrow 0-1 victory for Brno (10%) lurks just behind. The match is unlikely to veer into high-scoring territory, with an underwhelming 48% chance of surpassing 2.5 goals. Defensive discipline and controlled possession might stifle the pace.

    For betting enthusiasts, the sharpest angle emerges from the EV+ value. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.8 for a Zbrojovka away win, presenting a substantial 19% edge over the model's 43% rating. This combination of form, tactical setup, and betting value makes backing the visitors an attractive proposition.

    SlováckoSlovácko
    Form DDLDW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #15xP/match #14Points #15
    Key players
    • Michal TravnikCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
    • Šimon SlončíkCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    • Jocelin BehiratcheCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.03
    Zbrojovka BrnoZbrojovka Brno
    Form WLWLL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #8xP/match #5Points #8
    Key players
    • Amadou DanteLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
    • Jaromír ZmrhalLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
    • Kauan Carneiro da SilvaCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Slovácko 30% · Draw 27% · Zbrojovka Brno 43%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC Zbrojovka BrnoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,30fair 10,26-19 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - SlovackoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,59fair 12,77-33 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Slovácko – Zbrojovka Brno

    Predicted score matrix

    Zbrojovka Brno →
    Slovácko →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.8%
    0–19.8%
    0–27.0%
    0–33.2%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–08.7%
    1–112.9%
    1–28.6%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.8%
    2
    2–05.6%
    2–17.7%
    2–25.3%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.1%
    3–22.2%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,23–1,37
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.83
    Over 2,548%
    @1.88

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Zbrojovka Brno or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.03

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Zbrojovka Brno or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Daniel Vašulín to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Daniel Vašulín to score28%
    • Filip Vedral to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Zbrojovka Brno43% probability@2.55BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • 2 · Zbrojovka Brno43% probability@2.55NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
    • 2 · Zbrojovka Brno43% probability@2.50LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · SlováckoX2 · Zbrojovka Brno
    Betsafe2.623.15
    EV+ 9%
    2.55
    LeoVegas2.603.15
    EV+ 7%
    2.50
    Nordicbet2.623.15
    EV+ 9%
    2.55

    Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:36

    Odds movement

    1+7 %
    40 %35 %

    2.45 → 2.62

    X0 %
    31 %26 %

    3.15 → 3.15

    2-7 %
    36 %31 %

    2.75 → 2.55

    Over 2,50 %
    52 %47 %

    1.88 → 1.88

    Nordicbet · 9 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Slovácko
    Zbrojovka Brno
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Slovácko (9–16)
    Zbrojovka Brno (12–13)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Slovácko
    Šimon Slončík: 196 passningar, xT 0.37SlončíkMichal Travnik: 193 passningar, xT 0.95TravnikAndrej Stojcevski: 172 passningar, xT 0.34StojcevskiJocelin Behiratche: 142 passningar, xT 0.03BehiratcheMilan Heca: 142 passningar, xT 0.09HecaMarek Havlik: 117 passningar, xT 0.23HavlikGigli Ndefe: 111 passningar, xT 0.8NdefeTihomir Kostadinov: 104 passningar, xT 0.04KostadinovMartin Šviderský: 89 passningar, xT 0.05ŠviderskýGibril Sosseh: 61 passningar, xT 0.14SossehLukáš Vorlický: 58 passningar, xT 0.32Vorlický
    Zbrojovka Brno
    Jakub Klíma: 189 passningar, xT 1.06KlímaAdam Hrdina: 165 passningar, xT 0.3HrdinaKauan Carneiro da Silva: 163 passningar, xT 0.51SilvaAmadou Dante: 127 passningar, xT 0.51DanteJakub Janetzký: 107 passningar, xT 0.14JanetzkýFilip Vedral: 95 passningar, xT 0.27VedralLukáš Penxa: 83 passningar, xT 0.55PenxaJaromír Zmrhal: 78 passningar, xT 0.58ZmrhalAntonín Vaníček: 65 passningar, xT 0.16VaníčekPatrik Čavoš: 61 passningar, xT 0.14ČavošTadeáš Vachoušek: 59 passningar, xT 0.4Vachoušek
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Slovácko
    Šimon Slončík: 196 passningar, xT 0.37SlončíkMichal Travnik: 193 passningar, xT 0.95TravnikAndrej Stojcevski: 172 passningar, xT 0.34StojcevskiJocelin Behiratche: 142 passningar, xT 0.03BehiratcheMilan Heca: 142 passningar, xT 0.09HecaMarek Havlik: 117 passningar, xT 0.23HavlikGigli Ndefe: 111 passningar, xT 0.8NdefeTihomir Kostadinov: 104 passningar, xT 0.04KostadinovMartin Šviderský: 89 passningar, xT 0.05ŠviderskýGibril Sosseh: 61 passningar, xT 0.14SossehLukáš Vorlický: 58 passningar, xT 0.32Vorlický
    Zbrojovka Brno
    Jakub Klíma: 189 passningar, xT 1.06KlímaAdam Hrdina: 165 passningar, xT 0.3HrdinaKauan Carneiro da Silva: 163 passningar, xT 0.51SilvaAmadou Dante: 127 passningar, xT 0.51DanteJakub Janetzký: 107 passningar, xT 0.14JanetzkýFilip Vedral: 95 passningar, xT 0.27VedralLukáš Penxa: 83 passningar, xT 0.55PenxaJaromír Zmrhal: 78 passningar, xT 0.58ZmrhalAntonín Vaníček: 65 passningar, xT 0.16VaníčekPatrik Čavoš: 61 passningar, xT 0.14ČavošTadeáš Vachoušek: 59 passningar, xT 0.4Vachoušek

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSlováckoZbrojovka Brno
    Points716
    xPoints10.415.1
    xG per match0.891.2
    xGA per match1.61.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.31
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.40.29
    Playing styleSlováckoZbrojovka Brno
    Build-up efficiency0.350.34
    Field tilt0.440.45
    xT per match0.871.1
    xTA per match1.31
    Won balls, offensive half2325
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.290.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.24
    Entries into the box per match911
    Entries into the box against1312
    Pass completion %0.770.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.65
    Passes per match326285
    Passes against per match360358
    Switches of play per match17.222
    Long balls per match2632
    Set piecesSlováckoZbrojovka Brno
    xG from free kicks0.070.04
    Corners per match3.43.8
    Corners against per match4.75.1
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.490.55
    OtherSlováckoZbrojovka Brno
    Throw-in control0.650.7
    The goalkeepersMilan Heca (Slovácko)Adam Hrdina (Zbrojovka Brno)
    Saves2233
    Save %73%75%
    xG prevented53%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Slovácko
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Zbrojovka Brno
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno according to our model?

    The model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slovácko 30%, draw 27%, Zbrojovka Brno 43%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno?

    The model expects 1.23 goals (xG) for Slovácko and 1.37 for Zbrojovka Brno, 2.60 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Slovácko or draw (1X) 57%, Zbrojovka Brno or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 73%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.