Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Czech First League17 October 20268°4 km/h

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Sigma OlomoucPossession control

1–0

Slovan LiberecPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Slovan Liberec (37%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.25 (+1 %)

1 · Sigma Olomouc 32%X 31%37% Slovan Liberec · 2

32%

31%

37%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec (Czech First League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Sigma Olomouc win 32%, draw 31%, Slovan Liberec win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Sigma Olomouc 1.23, Slovan Liberec 1.31. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Sigma Olomouc or draw 63%, Slovan Liberec or draw 68%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sigma Olomouc – Slovan Liberec

Sofia Andersson · 16 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

In navigating the head-to-head record since 2023, Slovan Liberec holds a slight edge with three wins against Sigma Olomouc's two victories and a draw. This narrow advantage is mirrored in the current season's data. Liberec's tally of 20 points surpasses Olomouc's 17, bolstering their position as the model's lean with a 37% win probability compared to Olomouc's 32%.

Olomouc's home advantage might not be enough to tip the scales, especially considering their expected goals per match (1.2) trail behind Liberec's 1.6. Defensively, the hosts also lag, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match, highlighting a vulnerability against Liberec's more robust defense, which concedes only 1.0 goals per game. These statistics suggest a tight contest where neither team is likely to dominate.

The most likely scorelines further support a low-scoring affair. A 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable outcome at 13%, followed by a slender 1-0 victory for either team. The expected goals for both sides hover just above one, aligning with the 47% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to find the net. This underlines the balanced nature of the matchup, with neither side expected to break free in a flurry of goals.

The standout betting angle here is the value on a draw. With a model-rated probability of 31%, odds of 3.35 with Betsafe and Nordicbet represent a 4% edge, offering a promising opportunity for discerning bettors. The same draw at odds of 3.3 with LeoVegas also presents a slight advantage. Given the evenly matched nature of these sides, the draw is both a strategically sound and statistically backed wager.

Sigma Olomouc

Form LWWLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #9xT #13xP/match #12Points #5

Key players

Dominik JanosekCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
Péter BaráthCDMxG 0.21 · xT 0.04
Abdoulaye SyllaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16

Slovan Liberec

Form WWWDL

League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #6xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Lukas MasekFxG 0.40 · xT -0.01
Lukáš HůlkaCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
Vasil KušejCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.16

Final score

1 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 32% · Draw 31% · Slovan Liberec 37%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Slovan LiberecBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,02fair 11,35-29 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Sigma OlomoucBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,59fair 12,76-33 %

Miss

Match prediction: Sigma Olomouc – Slovan Liberec

Predicted score matrix

Slovan Liberec →

Sigma Olomouc →

0–08.3%

0–19.9%

0–26.7%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.3%

1–113.1%

1–28.3%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.0%

2–17.8%

2–25.1%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.5%

3–13.2%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,23–1,31

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

@1.85

Over 2,547%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Slovan Liberec or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Slovan Liberec or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Lukáš Mašek to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Václav Sejk to score27%
Lukáš Masopust to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.25LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sigma Olomouc	X	2 · Slovan Liberec
Betsafe	2.65	EV+ 1% 3.25	2.45
LeoVegas	2.60	EV+ 1% 3.25	2.45
Nordicbet	2.65	EV+ 1% 3.25	2.45

Odds updated 17 Oct, 10:36

Odds movement

1+10 %

39 %34 %

2.42 → 2.65

X-2 %

30 %25 %

3.30 → 3.25

2-8 %

38 %33 %

2.65 → 2.45

Nordicbet · 11 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Sigma Olomouc 2Draw 1Slovan Liberec 3

Goals: 6–9 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sigma Olomouc

Slovan Liberec

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sigma Olomouc (17–14)

Slovan Liberec (13–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sigma Olomouc

Slovan Liberec

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sigma Olomouc

Slovan Liberec

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sigma Olomouc	Slovan Liberec
Points	17	20
xPoints	11.8	17.2
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.16

Playing style	Sigma Olomouc	Slovan Liberec
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.48	0.54
xT per match	0.89	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	19	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.27
Entries into the box per match	10	18
Entries into the box against	11	9
Pass completion %	0.8	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.66
Passes per match	399	273
Passes against per match	312	319
Switches of play per match	24.5	21.7
Long balls per match	34	31

Set pieces	Sigma Olomouc	Slovan Liberec
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.08
Corners per match	4.1	5.9
Corners against per match	5.7	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.61	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.64

Other	Sigma Olomouc	Slovan Liberec
Throw-in control	0.72	0.72

The goalkeepers	Jan Koutny (Sigma Olomouc)	Tomas Koubek (Slovan Liberec)
Saves	29	23
Save %	71%	79%
xG prevented	56%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sigma Olomouc

Fixtures, form & tips

Slovan Liberec

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec according to our model?

The model gives Slovan Liberec a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sigma Olomouc 32%, draw 31%, Slovan Liberec 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?

The model expects 1.23 goals (xG) for Sigma Olomouc and 1.31 for Slovan Liberec, 2.54 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sigma Olomouc or draw (1X) 63%, Slovan Liberec or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.