01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sparta Praha to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Czech First League11°11 km/h
Läs på svenska
Baník OstravaPossession control0–0
Sparta PrahaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Sparta Praha (61%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.40 (+4 %)
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha · Czech First League
1 · Baník Ostrava 16%X 23%61% Sparta Praha · 2
16%
23%
61%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha (Czech First League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Baník Ostrava win 16%, draw 23%, Sparta Praha win 61%. Expected goals (xG): Baník Ostrava 1.09, Sparta Praha 2.27. Most likely score: 1-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Baník Ostrava or draw 39%, Sparta Praha or draw 84%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Baník Ostrava – Sparta Praha
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Sparta Praha, holding a strong 61% probability of victory, enter the match in Ostrava with momentum on their side, riding a three-game winning streak. While the head-to-head record since 2023 is an even split with Baník Ostrava, the sample of just five matches is too small to overshadow the current form and metrics that favor the visitors. Sparta's high press and possession strategy should outmatch the hosts' style and likely drive the game towards the visitors' preferred tempo.
The expected goals mirror this imbalance: Ostrava's 1.09 pales next to Sparta’s 2.27. Ostrava's defensive vulnerabilities are evident, conceding an expected 2.0 goals per match, nearly double the 0.96 conceded by the visitors. These statistics suggest a game that leans heavily towards Sparta's attacking prowess, which could easily exploit the host's frailties at the back. The model hints at a 1-2 or 0-2 scoreline, each carrying significant likelihood and aligning with the predicted xG figures.
Goals are anticipated, with a high-scoring pattern in their meetings averaging 4.2 goals per game. The model assigns a 65% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score, reinforcing the expectation of a dynamic match. Ostrava's aspiration to control possession might open spaces for Sparta's incisive attacks, pushing the game towards those over metrics.
The sharpest angle is the clear value on Sparta at odds of 1.72 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. The model identifies a 4% edge, reflecting Sparta's superior form and expected dominance. While nothing is ever guaranteed in football, the numbers make a compelling case for backing the visitors at these odds.
Baník OstravaForm LLLDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #11xP/match #13Points #12
Key players
- Michal FrydrychCBxG 0.31 · xT 0.23
- Jiri BoulaCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Yevhenii SkybaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
Sparta PrahaForm LLWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #1xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Jaroslav ZelenyCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
- John Anthony Mercado CueroRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.24
- Andrew IrvingCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Baník Ostrava 16% · Draw 23% · Sparta Praha 61%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Sparta PragBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,45fair 4,20+6 %
MissMatchresultat - FC Baník OstravaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,89fair 18,59-31 %
MissMatch prediction: Baník Ostrava – Sparta Praha
Predicted score matrix
Sparta Praha →
Baník Ostrava →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–17.7%
0–29.0%
0–36.8%
0–4+6.5%
1
1–03.5%
1–18.9%
1–29.8%
1–37.4%
1–4+7.1%
2
2–02.1%
2–14.7%
2–25.3%
2–34.0%
2–4+3.9%
3
3–00.8%
3–11.7%
3–21.9%
3–31.5%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–00.3%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-210%
- 2.0-29%
- 3.1-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,09–2,27
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
@2.25
Over 2,565%
@1.58EV+3%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sparta Praha to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- John Anthony Mercado Cuero to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- John Anthony Mercado Cuero to score27%
- Yevhenii Skyba to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.543% probability@2.40BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- Over 3.543% probability@2.40NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
- Over 2.565% probability@1.58BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Baník Ostrava | X | 2 · Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.50 | 3.95 | 1.62 |
| LeoVegas | 4.45 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| Nordicbet | 4.50 | 3.95 | 1.62 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 11:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Sparta Praha win since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 1.78 to 1.62 (−9%).
1+18 %
27 %17 %
3.80 → 4.50
X+5 %
29 %19 %
3.75 → 3.95
2-9 %
59 %49 %
1.78 → 1.62
Over 2,5-2 %
64 %54 %
1.62 → 1.58
Nordicbet · 11 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesBaník Ostrava 2Draw 1Sparta Praha 2
Goals: 9–12 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
- AC Sparta Prague come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Baník Ostrava
Sparta Praha
Baník Ostrava (7–18)
Sparta Praha (20–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Baník Ostrava
Sparta Praha
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Baník Ostrava
Sparta Praha
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 18 |
| xPoints | 10.7 | 16.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 0.96 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.74 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 0.66 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 290 | 444 |
| Passes against per match | 313 | 236 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.8 | 30.8 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 7.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.22 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| Other | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| The goalkeepers | Martin Jedlicka (Baník Ostrava) | Jakub Surovcik (Sparta Praha) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 26 |
| Save % | 59% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha according to our model?
The model gives Sparta Praha a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Baník Ostrava 16%, draw 23%, Sparta Praha 61%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
The model expects 1.09 goals (xG) for Baník Ostrava and 2.27 for Sparta Praha, 3.36 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Baník Ostrava or draw (1X) 39%, Sparta Praha or draw (X2) 84% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.