Pardubice vs Zlín: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Czech First League17 October 202610°11 km/h

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PardubiceLow block & direct

3–0

ZlínLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Pardubice (53%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.25 (+22 %)

1 · Pardubice 53%X 29%18% Zlín · 2

53%

29%

18%

Prediction summary

Final score 3–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Pardubice vs Zlín (Czech First League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Pardubice win 53%, draw 29%, Zlín win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Pardubice 1.64, Zlín 0.87. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Pardubice or draw 82%, Zlín or draw 47%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Pardubice – Zlín

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Pardubice stand as clear favorites with a 53% probability of securing victory against Zlín. Yet, the model suggests caution. The hosts' defense isn't watertight, conceding 1.5 xGA per match, but their offensive edge should see them through against Zlín's modest 0.78 xG. Most probable scorelines such as 1-0 (13%) and 2-0 (11%) for the hosts underline this defensive battle, aligning with an over 2.5 goals lean at 46%.

Though the head-to-head record since 2023 is limited, Pardubice remain unbeaten, reaffirming their edge. The hosts' current form, with 8 points compared to Zlín's solitary point, supports this narrative. Despite both teams favoring a low defensive yet direct approach, Pardubice's superior xPoints at 14.2 to Zlín's 10.1 indicate a likely home win. The expected goals further cement this, forecasting 1.64 to 0.87 in favor of the hosts.

For value seekers, the draw offers potential. With odds as high as 3.7 at LeoVegas, and the model rating a draw at 29%, there’s a 6% edge here. It's a hedge on an otherwise clear home win scenario, but it pays to remember that dull, well-researched bets often settle the books.

Pardubice

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #10xP/match #10Points #13

Key players

Jason NoslinCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
Tomáš JelínekCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.21
Denis HalinskýCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14

Zlín

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #16xP/match #15Points #16

Key players

Marian PisojaRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Daniel ŠmigaFxG 0.21 · xT 0.11
Naphthalene Frank AppiahRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.18

Final score

3 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Pardubice 53% · Draw 29% · Zlín 18%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ZlínBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 26,25fair 28,67-8 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FK PardubiceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,80fair 8,16-41 %

Miss

Match prediction: Pardubice – Zlín

Predicted score matrix

Zlín →

Pardubice →

0–08.5%

0–16.7%

0–23.1%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–013.0%

1–111.9%

1–25.0%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–011.0%

2–19.5%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.0%

3–15.2%

3–22.3%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.6%

4+–13.1%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,64–0,87

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.95EV+6%

Over 2,546%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pardubice to win53%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pardubice to win53%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Václav Drchal to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Václav Drchal to score31%
Milos Kopecny to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw29% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@4.20LeoVegasEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pardubice	X	2 · Zlín
Betsafe	1.44	EV+ 22% 4.25	EV+ 10% 6.20
LeoVegas	1.44	EV+ 21% 4.20	EV+ 8% 6.10
Nordicbet	1.44	EV+ 22% 4.25	EV+ 10% 6.20

Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Pardubice win since 10 October — the odds have shortened from 1.72 to 1.44 (−16%).

1-16 %

68 %48 %

1.72 → 1.44

X+21 %

34 %14 %

3.50 → 4.25

2+41 %

28 %8 %

4.40 → 6.20

Nordicbet · 14 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Pardubice 1Draw 1Zlín 0

Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pardubice

Zlín

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pardubice (9–16)

Zlín (8–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pardubice

Zlín

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pardubice

Zlín

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pardubice	Zlín
Points	8	1
xPoints	14.2	10.1
xG per match	1.2	0.78
xGA per match	1.5	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.26

Playing style	Pardubice	Zlín
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.36	0.3
xT per match	0.99	0.62
xTA per match	1.2	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	24
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.22
Entries into the box per match	12	8
Entries into the box against	14	17
Pass completion %	0.71	0.65
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.59
Passes per match	266	212
Passes against per match	400	377
Switches of play per match	21.9	22.8
Long balls per match	33	32

Set pieces	Pardubice	Zlín
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	4.7	4.5
Corners against per match	4.5	5.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.51

Other	Pardubice	Zlín
Throw-in control	0.74	0.67

The goalkeepers	Vladimír Neuman (Pardubice)	Stanislav Dostal (Zlín)
Saves	26	28
Save %	68%	61%
xG prevented	62%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pardubice

Fixtures, form & tips

Zlín

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pardubice vs Zlín according to our model?

The model gives Pardubice a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pardubice 53%, draw 29%, Zlín 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Pardubice vs Zlín?

The model expects 1.64 goals (xG) for Pardubice and 0.87 for Zlín, 2.51 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Pardubice or draw (1X) 82%, Zlín or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.