01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Mladá Boleslav or draw (1X)74%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Czech First League10°15 km/h
Läs på svenska
Mladá BoleslavPossession control1–0
TeplicePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Mladá Boleslav (43%)
Mladá Boleslav vs Teplice · Czech First League
1 · Mladá Boleslav 43%X 28%30% Teplice · 2
43%
28%
30%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Mladá Boleslav vs Teplice (Czech First League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Mladá Boleslav win 43%, draw 28%, Teplice win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Mladá Boleslav 1.73, Teplice 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Mladá Boleslav or draw 70%, Teplice or draw 57%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Mladá Boleslav – Teplice
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The expected goals tell a story of a clash between two teams with similar profiles: both Mladá Boleslav and Teplice rely heavily on possession control. However, it's Teplice’s superior efficiency in rapid transitions that could tilt the balance. Their xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, a notable 0.37, highlights their knack for swift counterattacks, suggesting they could surprise the hosts if Mladá Boleslav overcommit.
Despite the visitors' edge in these metrics, historical performance lends weight to Mladá Boleslav. They have dominated recent encounters, winning four out of the past six meetings — a small sample but not insignificant. This past success might give Boleslav a psychological edge, particularly at home, but it's not enough to overlook Teplice's form and efficiency in the current season.
The model gives the hosts a 43% chance of victory, leaning towards a tight 1-1 or 2-1 finish. The expected goals figures — 1.73 for Boleslav and 1.21 for Teplice — suggest a game where chances might be plentiful for both but finishing will be key. The odds slightly favor the over 2.5 goals outcome at 56%, reflecting an expectation of offensive intent despite both teams' possession-focused styles.
In assessing the betting market, the value might be found with Teplice. Given their xPoints and transitional threat, their 30% win probability could be undervalued. Savvy bettors might consider backing the visitors to pull off a surprise, especially if the odds offered by bookmakers exceed the implied probability. Teplice’s potential to capitalize on Boleslav's vulnerabilities makes them a tempting underdog. Yet, caution is warranted: the hosts' historical dominance cannot be ignored, setting up a fascinating tactical battle.
Mladá BoleslavForm WLWLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #14xP/match #11Points #4
Key players
- Martin SubertLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.18
- Daniel LanghamerCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.02
- Solomon JohnRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.12
TepliceForm WWLWD
League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #5xP/match #9Points #7
Key players
- Lukas MarecekCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
- Matej PulkrabFxG 0.41 · xT 0.09
- Matej RadostaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Mladá Boleslav 43% · Draw 28% · Teplice 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Mladá BoleslavBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,31fair 6,47-18 %
MissMatchresultat - FK TepliceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,98fair 13,24-40 %
MissMatch prediction: Mladá Boleslav – Teplice
Predicted score matrix
Teplice →
Mladá Boleslav →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–16.0%
0–23.9%
0–31.6%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–08.8%
1–111.4%
1–26.7%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.6%
2–25.8%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.6%
3–15.5%
3–23.4%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.9%
4+–13.6%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,73–1,21
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+18%
Under 2,544%
@2.20
Over 2,556%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Mladá Boleslav or draw (1X)74%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Solomon John to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Solomon John to score20%
- Lukáš Mareček to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Mladá Boleslav | X | 2 · Teplice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
| LeoVegas | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 10:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 14 October — the odds have shortened from 1.68 to 1.57 (−6%).
1+5 %
47 %42 %
1.95 → 2.05
X-1 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.40
2-7 %
31 %26 %
3.35 → 3.10
Over 2,5-6 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.57
LeoVegas · 18 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesMladá Boleslav 4Draw 1Teplice 1
Goals: 8–6 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Mlada Boleslav dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Mladá Boleslav
Teplice
Mladá Boleslav (17–13)
Teplice (18–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Mladá Boleslav
Teplice
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Mladá Boleslav
Teplice
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Mladá Boleslav | Teplice |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 17 |
| xPoints | 12.2 | 14.2 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Mladá Boleslav | Teplice |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.87 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 401 | 306 |
| Passes against per match | 342 | 361 |
| Switches of play per match | 14 | 21.7 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Mladá Boleslav | Teplice |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.27 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.7 |
| Other | Mladá Boleslav | Teplice |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Jiri Floder (Mladá Boleslav) | Matous Trmal (Teplice) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 36 | 34 |
| Save % | 74% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Mladá Boleslav vs Teplice according to our model?
The model gives Mladá Boleslav a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mladá Boleslav 43%, draw 28%, Teplice 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Mladá Boleslav vs Teplice?
The model expects 1.73 goals (xG) for Mladá Boleslav and 1.21 for Teplice, 2.95 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Mladá Boleslav or draw (1X) 70%, Teplice or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.