Sparta Praha vs Slovácko: Prediction & Odds (25 Oct 2026)

Czech First League25 October 20268°2,1 mm22 km/h

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Sparta PrahaPossession & high press

5–1

SlováckoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sparta Praha (77%)

1 · Sparta Praha 77%X 14%9% Slovácko · 2

77%

14%

Prediction summary

Final score 5–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sparta Praha vs Slovácko (Czech First League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Sparta Praha win 77%, draw 14%, Slovácko win 9%. Expected goals (xG): Sparta Praha 2.52, Slovácko 0.91. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Sparta Praha or draw 91%, Slovácko or draw 23%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sparta Praha – Slovácko

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: A striking statistic looms large as Sparta host Slovácko: a 77% probability model backing the home side. Sparta's dominance is underlined by an expected goals tally of 2.52 compared to Slovácko's 0.91. This suggests a comfortable home victory, reflected in the most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 3-0. Given Sparta's possession-heavy, high-pressing style, they seem poised to dictate the game's tempo and create ample scoring opportunities against a Slovácko side struggling with defensive frailties.

The head-to-head record, though a small sample of four matches since 2023, also tilts in Sparta's favor with two wins and two draws. More importantly, looking at season form and underlying metrics, Sparta clearly have the upper hand. They boast 19 points with an impressive xPoints of 17.6, sharply eclipsing Slovácko's 7 points and 10.6 xPoints. The visitors' difficulty in both creating and preventing goals is evident, with just 0.88 xG per match and a much higher xGA of 1.7.

The model leans towards over 2.5 goals at 67%, suggesting Sparta's attacking prowess should prevail decisively.

Sparta Praha

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #3xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Martin SuchomelRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Jaroslav ZelenyCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
John Anthony Mercado CueroRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.22

Slovácko

Form DLDWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #13xT #14xP/match #14Points #15

Key players

Šimon SlončíkCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Andrej StojcevskiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Michal TravnikCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17

Final score

5 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sparta Praha 77% · Draw 14% · Slovácko 9%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Sparta PragBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,60fair 3,87-7 %

Hit

Matchresultat - SlovackoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 27,75fair 30,62-9 %

Miss

Match prediction: Sparta Praha – Slovácko

Predicted score matrix

Slovácko →

Sparta Praha →

0–03.5%

0–12.7%

0–21.3%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–07.9%

1–17.6%

1–23.4%

1–31.0%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.3%

2–19.4%

2–24.3%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.6%

3–17.9%

3–23.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–09.9%

4+–19.0%

4+–24.1%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-19%
3.3-09%
4.1-08%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,52–0,91

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,533%

@2.52

Over 2,567%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sparta Praha to win77%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sparta Praha to win77%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Jonatan Braut Brunes to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Jonatan Braut Brunes to score36%
Tihomir Kostadinov to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Sparta Praha	X	2 · Slovácko
Betsafe	1.26	5.35	8.60
LeoVegas	1.26	5.40	8.25
Nordicbet	1.26	5.35	8.60

Odds updated 25 Oct, 12:35

Odds movement

10 %

74 %69 %

1.26 → 1.26

X-4 %

20 %15 %

5.55 → 5.35

20 %

14 %9 %

8.60 → 8.60

Over 2,50 %

65 %60 %

1.47 → 1.47

Nordicbet · 13 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Sparta Praha 2Draw 2Slovácko 0

Goals: 9–4 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

AC Sparta Prague win 68% of their home matches all-time (40 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sparta Praha

Slovácko

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sparta Praha (20–12)

Slovácko (10–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sparta Praha

Slovácko

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sparta Praha

Slovácko

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sparta Praha	Slovácko
Points	19	7
xPoints	17.6	10.6
xG per match	2	0.88
xGA per match	0.95	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.46

Playing style	Sparta Praha	Slovácko
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.35
Field tilt	0.71	0.46
xT per match	1.3	0.88
xTA per match	0.67	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	28	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.25
Entries into the box per match	15	10
Entries into the box against	8	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.72
Passes per match	434	343
Passes against per match	237	345
Switches of play per match	29.4	18.7
Long balls per match	32	27

Set pieces	Sparta Praha	Slovácko
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.07
Corners per match	7	3.8
Corners against per match	4.5	4.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.22	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.53

Other	Sparta Praha	Slovácko
Throw-in control	0.83	0.67

The goalkeepers	Jakub Surovcik (Sparta Praha)	Milan Heca (Slovácko)
Saves	28	25
Save %	70%	71%
xG prevented	45%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sparta Praha

Fixtures, form & tips

Slovácko

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sparta Praha vs Slovácko according to our model?

The model gives Sparta Praha a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Praha 77%, draw 14%, Slovácko 9%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Praha vs Slovácko?

The model expects 2.52 goals (xG) for Sparta Praha and 0.91 for Slovácko, 3.43 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sparta Praha or draw (1X) 91%, Slovácko or draw (X2) 23% and no draw (12) 86%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.