01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hradec Králové or draw (1X)72%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
Czech First League7°9,3 mm17 km/h
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Hradec KrálovéPossession control1–2
JablonecPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Hradec Králové (41%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.45 (+15 %)
Hradec Králové vs Jablonec · Czech First League
1 · Hradec Králové 41%X 28%30% Jablonec · 2
41%
28%
30%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hradec Králové vs Jablonec (Czech First League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Hradec Králové win 41%, draw 28%, Jablonec win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Hradec Králové 1.28, Jablonec 0.99. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%. Double chance: Hradec Králové or draw 70%, Jablonec or draw 59%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Hradec Králové – Jablonec
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Despite the slim historical edge held by Jablonec with two victories to Hradec Králové's one across five encounters, the small sample size limits the weight of these head-to-head results. More telling is the current form and underlying metrics, where Jablonec slightly outpaces Hradec Králové in both expected points and xG per match. However, Hradec's favored status in the model may hint at market inefficiencies.
Both sides exhibit similar playing styles, reliant on possession control, which often leads to closely contested matches. The probability of a draw or a narrow victory, like the model's prediction of a 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline, seems plausible. With expected goals sitting at 1.28 for Hradec and 0.99 for Jablonec, the likelihood of a low-scoring affair becomes evident, especially given the wet conditions forecasted to suppress open play and goal-scoring opportunities.
Points on the board slightly favor Jablonec, but the margins are razor-thin. Hradec's 41% victory chance from the model suggests they might capitalize on home advantage, yet the draw remains a strong 28% contender. The match's delicacy lies in its potential lack of goals, with under 2.5 goals pegged at 60% probability.
For punters seeking value, the under 1.5 market shines. With odds at 3.25 from Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 3.2 from LeoVegas, each offering a noticeable edge over the model's 33% estimate, there's a clear angle to exploit here. While no bet is a certainty, the statistical lean towards a tight, low-scoring game makes these odds particularly enticing.
Hradec KrálovéForm DWLLD
League ranking xG #11xGA #5xT #15xP/match #9Points #11
Key players
- Filip CihakCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
- Frantisek CechCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
- Jakub UhrincatCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
JablonecForm WLDWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #1xP/match #7Points #7
Key players
- Nemanja TekijaskiCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
- Martin CedidlaRBxG 0.13 · xT 0.17
- Jan SuchanRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.11
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hradec Králové 41% · Draw 28% · Jablonec 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Hradec KraloveBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,62fair 12,76-40 %
MissMatchresultat - JablonecBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,11fair 20,98-57 %
MissMatch prediction: Hradec Králové – Jablonec
Predicted score matrix
Jablonec →
Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.7%
0–19.9%
0–25.1%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–012.8%
1–113.5%
1–26.5%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.4%
2–18.4%
2–24.1%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–03.6%
3–13.6%
3–21.8%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–11.5%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-013%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.0-110%
- 5.2-08%
Expected goals
1,28–0,99
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,560%
@1.85EV+12%
Over 2,540%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hradec Králové or draw (1X)72%
- Under 2.5 goals60%
- Mick van Buren to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Mick van Buren to score25%
- Filip Novák to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.533% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
- Under 1.533% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
- Under 1.533% probability@3.40LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hradec Králové | X | 2 · Jablonec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.38 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | 2.35 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | 2.38 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 12:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Jablonec win since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 3.15 to 2.80 (−11%).
1+11 %
46 %36 %
2.15 → 2.38
X-3 %
35 %25 %
3.25 → 3.15
2-11 %
34 %24 %
3.15 → 2.80
Over 2,5-3 %
53 %43 %
1.90 → 1.85
Nordicbet · 18 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesHradec Králové 1Draw 2Jablonec 2
Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Jablonec dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hradec Králové
Jablonec
Hradec Králové (10–13)
Jablonec (14–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hradec Králové
Jablonec
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hradec Králové
Jablonec
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hradec Králové | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 17 |
| xPoints | 16 | 16.2 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.98 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Hradec Králové | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 0.87 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 384 | 389 |
| Passes against per match | 332 | 291 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.6 | 36.1 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Hradec Králové | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| Other | Hradec Králové | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Adam Zadrazil (Hradec Králové) | Jan Hanus (Jablonec) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 38 | 13 |
| Save % | 76% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hradec Králové vs Jablonec according to our model?
The model gives Hradec Králové a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hradec Králové 41%, draw 28%, Jablonec 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Hradec Králové vs Jablonec?
The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Hradec Králové and 0.99 for Jablonec, 2.27 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Hradec Králové or draw (1X) 70%, Jablonec or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.