01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Viktoria Plzeň to win64%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Czech First League8°2,5 mm29 km/h
Läs på svenska
Viktoria PlzeňPossession & high press1–2
PardubiceLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Viktoria Plzeň (64%)
Viktoria Plzeň vs Pardubice · Czech First League
1 · Viktoria Plzeň 64%X 21%15% Pardubice · 2
64%
21%
15%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Viktoria Plzeň vs Pardubice (Czech First League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Viktoria Plzeň win 64%, draw 21%, Pardubice win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Viktoria Plzeň 2.02, Pardubice 0.91. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Viktoria Plzeň or draw 85%, Pardubice or draw 36%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Viktoria Plzeň – Pardubice
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
With Viktoria Plzeň holding a significant 64% chance of victory against Pardubice, the home side appears poised to assert their dominance. The hosts' high possession and pressing style are likely to disrupt Pardubice's defensive, counter-attacking approach. Viktoria Plzeň has demonstrated a consistent ability to perform at home, winning 60% of their matches at their stadium all-time, a trend that bodes well for their chances in this fixture.
The most probable scorelines, with 2-0 and 1-0 both in the top three, reflect the balance between Viktoria Plzeň's attacking prowess and Pardubice's more conservative setup. The expected goals model further underscores this with Viktoria Plzeň projected to score more than twice as many goals as Pardubice, suggesting a controlled performance from the hosts. While the model leans slightly towards a higher-scoring game with a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, the potential for rain may temper the attacking threat.
The small sample of their recent head-to-head encounters, with a slight edge to Viktoria Plzeň, adds a layer of complexity but ultimately weighs less than current form and expected goals data. With an expected goals per match of 1.6 compared to Pardubice's 1.3, the home team holds the upper hand statistically, though the visitors' resilience cannot be entirely discounted.
In conclusion, the smart money leans towards a Viktoria Plzeň win, potentially with a 2-0 scoreline. The weather conditions, with expected rain, might dampen the goal tally slightly. Given the model's probabilities, Viktoria Plzeň to win presents an attractive opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on the home side's superiority in this matchup.
Viktoria PlzeňForm DLLWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #9xP/match #5Points #9
Key players
- Prince Kwabena AduFxG 0.67 · xT 0.07
- Amar MemicRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.16
- Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr.CBxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
PardubiceForm DWWLW
League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #6xP/match #6Points #12
Key players
- Dávid KrčíkCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
- Jason NoslinCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
- Tomáš JelínekCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.20
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Viktoria Plzeň 64% · Draw 21% · Pardubice 15%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Viktoria PlzeňBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,58fair 5,47-16 %
MissMatchresultat - FK PardubiceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,76fair 26,52-52 %
MissMatch prediction: Viktoria Plzeň – Pardubice
Predicted score matrix
Pardubice →
Viktoria Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–14.6%
0–22.2%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.5%
1–110.1%
1–24.5%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.8%
2–19.9%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.3%
3–16.7%
3–23.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.9%
4+–15.4%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,02–0,91
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.22
Over 2,556%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Viktoria Plzeň to win64%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Jiří Maxim Panoš to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Jiří Maxim Panoš to score34%
- Jan Trédl to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Viktoria Plzeň64% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Viktoria Plzeň64% probability@1.65LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Viktoria Plzeň64% probability@1.65NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Viktoria Plzeň | X | 2 · Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 1.65 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 5% 1.65 | 3.85 | 4.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 1.65 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 12:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Pardubice win since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 6.40 to 4.40 (−31%).
1+18 %
65 %55 %
1.40 → 1.65
X-14 %
27 %17 %
4.50 → 3.85
2-31 %
23 %13 %
6.40 → 4.40
Over 2,5+1 %
64 %54 %
1.58 → 1.60
Nordicbet · 20 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesViktoria Plzeň 2Draw 1Pardubice 1
Goals: 7–2 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Viktoria Plzen win 60% of their home matches all-time (42 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Viktoria Plzeň
Pardubice
Viktoria Plzeň (23–19)
Pardubice (12–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Viktoria Plzeň
Pardubice
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Viktoria Plzeň
Pardubice
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viktoria Plzeň | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 11 |
| xPoints | 16.8 | 16.6 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Viktoria Plzeň | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.91 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 352 | 285 |
| Passes against per match | 345 | 389 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.5 | 24.9 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Viktoria Plzeň | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.6 |
| Other | Viktoria Plzeň | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Florian Wiegele (Viktoria Plzeň) | Vladimír Neuman (Pardubice) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 30 |
| Save % | 66% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 63% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viktoria Plzeň vs Pardubice according to our model?
The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viktoria Plzeň 64%, draw 21%, Pardubice 15%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Viktoria Plzeň vs Pardubice?
The model expects 2.02 goals (xG) for Viktoria Plzeň and 0.91 for Pardubice, 2.93 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Viktoria Plzeň or draw (1X) 85%, Pardubice or draw (X2) 36% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.