01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Horsens or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Danish SuperligaCASA Arena, Horsens14°0,3 mm19 km/h
Läs på svenska
HorsensPossession control0–0
RandersLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Horsens (36%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.68 (+16 %)
Horsens vs Randers · Danish Superliga
1 · Horsens 36%X 31%33% Randers · 2
36%
31%
33%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Horsens vs Randers (Danish Superliga, Friday, 16 October 2026): Horsens win 36%, draw 31%, Randers win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Horsens 1.47, Randers 1.36. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Horsens or draw 67%, Randers or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Horsens – Randers
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Horsens have had the upper hand when it comes to recent form, and the model's numbers reflect a subtle advantage for the hosts. Their possession control style matches up intriguingly against Randers' low defensive block and direct play. While Randers have suffered three straight defeats, Horsens have managed to stay afloat with a slightly better points tally, standing at 12 compared to their opponent's 10. However, the margins are razor-thin, as evidenced by their xPoints—11.7 for Horsens to Randers' 11.6.
Expected goals also tell a nuanced story. Horsens average 1.2 xG per match, narrowly edging out Randers at 1.1. Yet, it's on the defensive side where Randers show an edge, with an xGA of 1.6 against Horsens' 1.9. This points to an intriguing tactical battle: Horsens will likely control possession, but Randers' efficiency and compactness could make life difficult for them.
Weather might play a role, with 6.3 mm of rain expected. Typically, this can suppress goal-scoring opportunities, although the model already accounts for such conditions. Still, with a 54% probability for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams scoring, we could see a tightly contested match where defenses might be tested occasionally.
The real value lies in the draw, priced at 3.5 with LeoVegas. This offers a solid 10% edge, given the model sees a 31% chance of the teams cancelling each other out. A 1-1 scoreline, which the model pegs as most likely with a 12% probability, captures the essence of this matchup. While Horsens have a slight edge, a draw seems the most profitable angle, offering bettors a savvy play amidst a complex clash.
HorsensForm LWLDD
League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #11xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Yamirou OuorouRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.12
- Ivan MilicevicLBxG 0.09 · xT 0.26
- Alagie SaineLBxG 0.18 · xT 0.10
RandersForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #9xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Elies MahmoudRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
- Nikolai HoplandCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
- Mike ThemsenRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Horsens 36% · Draw 31% · Randers 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AC HorsensBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,44fair 8,69-14 %
MissMatchresultat - Randers FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,40fair 10,19-37 %
MissMatch prediction: Horsens – Randers
Predicted score matrix
Randers →
Horsens →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.2%
0–17.6%
0–25.4%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.1%
1–28.0%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.4%
2–18.7%
2–25.9%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.3%
3–22.9%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,47–1,36
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.20EV+1%
Over 2,554%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Horsens or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Alagie Saine to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Alagie Saine to score23%
- Laurits Raun Pedersen to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw31% probability@3.68PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.55LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.50NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Horsens | X | 2 · Randers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 2.80 | EV+ 8% 3.45 | 2.40 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 0% 2.80 | EV+ 12% 3.55 | 2.40 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 2.82 | EV+ 10% 3.50 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 2.82 | EV+ 16% 3.68 | 2.43 |
Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 14 October — the odds have shortened from 1.80 to 1.71 (−5%).
10 %
36 %31 %
2.82 → 2.82
X+2 %
29 %24 %
3.61 → 3.68
2+3 %
42 %37 %
2.37 → 2.43
Over 2,5-5 %
57 %52 %
1.80 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Randers have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Horsens
Randers
Horsens (18–19)
Randers (11–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Horsens
Randers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Horsens
Randers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Horsens | Randers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 10 |
| xPoints | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Horsens | Randers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 350 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 431 | 447 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.1 | 24.2 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Horsens | Randers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.6 | 7.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.7 | 0.71 |
| Other | Horsens | Randers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Matej Delac (Horsens) | Paul Izzo (Randers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 19 |
| Save % | 65% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Horsens vs Randers according to our model?
The model gives Horsens a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Horsens 36%, draw 31%, Randers 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Horsens vs Randers?
The model expects 1.47 goals (xG) for Horsens and 1.36 for Randers, 2.83 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Horsens or draw (1X) 67%, Randers or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 69%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.