SønderjyskE vs Silkeborg: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Danish Superliga18 October 2026 14:00 CESTSydbank Park, Haderslev10°23 km/h

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SønderjyskELow block & direct

4–0

SilkeborgCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Silkeborg (37%)

1 · SønderjyskE 36%X 27%37% Silkeborg · 2

36%

27%

37%

Prediction summary

Final score 4–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for SønderjyskE vs Silkeborg (Danish Superliga, Sunday, 18 October 2026): SønderjyskE win 36%, draw 27%, Silkeborg win 37%. Expected goals (xG): SønderjyskE 1.37, Silkeborg 1.35. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: SønderjyskE or draw 63%, Silkeborg or draw 64%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: SønderjyskE – Silkeborg

Erik Lindberg · 17 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Sønderjyske might have the small upper hand in their head-to-head clashes with Silkeborg since 2022, winning both meetings, but it's crucial to note that the sample size of two matches is minimal. This slim historical edge loses weight against the current form and expected goals data, both of which suggest Silkeborg holds the advantage. The visitors are riding a 5-match unbeaten streak in the league, a clear sign of their defensive and tactical solidity.

Examining the broader performance metrics, Silkeborg edges ahead in both xPoints (14.2 to 11.0) and xG per match (1.1 to 1.0), while also maintaining a tighter defense with an xGA of 1.5 compared to Sønderjyske's 1.9. These statistics reflect a side that is not only difficult to break down but also effective at creating scoring opportunities, albeit slightly more than their opponents. The expected goals suggest a tightly contested encounter, with Sønderjyske expected to score 1.37 and Silkeborg 1.35, reinforcing the model's near-even allocation of winning probabilities.

Weather conditions might play a significant role, with over 20 mm of rain anticipated. The wet conditions could dampen the attacking play, favoring Silkeborg's counter-attacking style while potentially stifling Sønderjyske's direct approach. Despite a slight model preference for Silkeborg, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, a sentiment echoed by a 13% probability.

For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market offers a tempting proposition. Betsafe prices this at 2.38, with the model suggesting a 49% chance, giving a healthy 16% edge. While the allure of a low-scoring draw is strong, the defensive discipline and weather conditions could align to keep this affair under the 2.5-goal mark, a pragmatic choice for the cautious bettor.

SønderjyskE

Form LLDWL

League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #10xP/match #11Points #12

Key players

Mohamed Cherif HaidaraCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.00
Maxime SoulasCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Ismaïl SeydiRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.14

Silkeborg

Form DDDWD

League ranking xG #11xGA #7xT #12xP/match #5Points #7

Key players

Mads LarsenCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Callum MccowattCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.16
Villads WesthCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09

Final score

4 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: SønderjyskE 36% · Draw 27% · Silkeborg 37%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SilkeborgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,14fair 10,45-22 %

Miss

Matchresultat - SønderjyskEBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,94fair 10,15-41 %

Miss

Match prediction: SønderjyskE – Silkeborg

Predicted score matrix

Silkeborg →

SønderjyskE →

0–07.0%

0–18.6%

0–26.0%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.7%

1–112.6%

1–28.2%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.2%

2–18.3%

2–25.6%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.8%

3–13.8%

3–22.6%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,37–1,35

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.24EV+7%

Over 2,551%

@1.69

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Silkeborg or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Silkeborg or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Mads Lautrup Freundlich to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Mads Lautrup Freundlich to score20%
Sefer Emini to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Silkeborg37% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
2 · Silkeborg37% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
Under 2.549% probability@2.24PinnacleEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · SønderjyskE	X	2 · Silkeborg
Betfair Exchange	1.12	1.12	1.12
Betsafe	2.20	3.60	EV+ 12% 3.05
Nordicbet	2.22	EV+ 0% 3.65	EV+ 12% 3.05
Pinnacle	2.59	3.60	2.68

Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

40 %35 %

2.57 → 2.59

X-2 %

29 %24 %

3.66 → 3.60

2+5 %

39 %34 %

2.55 → 2.68

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

SønderjyskE 2Draw 0Silkeborg 0

Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

Key facts

Silkeborg are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

SønderjyskE

Silkeborg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

SønderjyskE (12–24)

Silkeborg (15–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

SønderjyskE

Silkeborg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

SønderjyskE

Silkeborg

The teams in numbers

Performance	SønderjyskE	Silkeborg
Points	5	11
xPoints	11	14.2
xG per match	1	1.1
xGA per match	1.9	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.55	0.26

Playing style	SønderjyskE	Silkeborg
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.36	0.38
xT per match	0.85	0.66
xTA per match	1.1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	20
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.19
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	15	15
Pass completion %	0.71	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.75
Passes per match	284	434
Passes against per match	470	445
Switches of play per match	23.7	19.2
Long balls per match	33	25

Set pieces	SønderjyskE	Silkeborg
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.04
Corners per match	4.7	4.4
Corners against per match	5.3	6.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.62

Other	SønderjyskE	Silkeborg
Throw-in control	0.74	0.72

The goalkeepers	Nicolai Flo (SønderjyskE)	Aske Andresen (Silkeborg)
Saves	12	31
Save %	67%	67%
xG prevented	52%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

SønderjyskE

Fixtures, form & tips

Silkeborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins SønderjyskE vs Silkeborg according to our model?

The model gives Silkeborg a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: SønderjyskE 36%, draw 27%, Silkeborg 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in SønderjyskE vs Silkeborg?

The model expects 1.37 goals (xG) for SønderjyskE and 1.35 for Silkeborg, 2.72 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

SønderjyskE or draw (1X) 63%, Silkeborg or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.