01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Midtjylland or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Danish SuperligaEnergi Viborg Arena, Viborg6°11 km/h
Läs på svenska
ViborgCounter-attacks & crosses1–2
MidtjyllandPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Midtjylland (38%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.45 (+20 %)
Viborg vs Midtjylland · Danish Superliga
1 · Viborg 33%X 29%38% Midtjylland · 2
33%
29%
38%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Viborg vs Midtjylland (Danish Superliga, Monday, 19 October 2026): Viborg win 33%, draw 29%, Midtjylland win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Viborg 1.32, Midtjylland 1.39. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Viborg or draw 62%, Midtjylland or draw 67%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Viborg – Midtjylland
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
With Midtjylland unbeaten in their last 10 league matches and Viborg's counter-attack style meeting its match against Midtjylland's possession control, the encounter is set to be a tactically intriguing one. The model shows a slight edge towards Midtjylland with a 38% probability of victory compared to Viborg's 33%, but the likelihood of a draw sits close at 29%, highlighting the competitiveness expected on the pitch.
The expected goals suggest a tight match, with Viborg at 1.32 and Midtjylland at 1.39. Yet, the historical data adds another layer, pointing to a generally high-scoring affair between these two, averaging 3.5 goals per meeting. Despite this, Midtjylland's strong league form, scoring in 11 consecutive matches, may give them an upper hand in breaking down the hosts' defense.
While Viborg edges Midtjylland in xPoints and xG per match, the visitors' overall form cannot be ignored. They have shown resilience and consistency, making the likelihood of them finding the net quite high. The most probable scorelines are 1-1 at 13%, followed by 0-1 and 1-2 both at 9%, suggesting a narrow contest with a slight lean towards the visitors.
For bettors, the value lies in the unlikely. Despite the trend of high-scoring fixtures, both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer significant value on under 0.5 goals at odds of 19.0, with a model-rated edge of 33%. Additionally, under 1.5 goals at odds of 4.9 with Betsafe also presents a 19% edge — a nod to a possible defensive stalemate that defies expectations.
In conclusion, Midtjylland's form might just edge them past Viborg, but the best betting value lies in the anticipation of a lower-scoring game, contrary to the historical trend.
ViborgForm WLDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #6xP/match #1Points #3
Key players
- Oliver BundgaardLWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.15
- Lukas KirkegaardCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
- Charly NouckLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
MidtjyllandForm WDWDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #3xT #5xP/match #6Points #2
Key players
- Darío OsorioRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.44
- Mads Bech SorensenCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
- Friday Ubi EtimFxG 0.45 · xT 0.10
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Viborg 33% · Draw 29% · Midtjylland 38%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ViborgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,70fair 10,93-39 %
MissMatchresultat - FC MidtjyllandBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,63fair 9,79-42 %
MissMatch prediction: Viborg – Midtjylland
Predicted score matrix
Midtjylland →
Viborg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–18.9%
0–26.4%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–08.4%
1–112.6%
1–28.5%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.8%
2–18.0%
2–25.6%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.5%
3–22.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,32–1,39
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.45EV+19%
Over 2,551%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Midtjylland or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Gue-Sung Cho to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Dorian Junior Hanza Meha to score21%
- Magnus Riisgaard Jensen to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.549% probability@2.45LeoVegasEV+20%reference odds
- Under 1.524% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- Under 1.524% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Viborg | X | 2 · Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.80 | EV+ 4% 3.60 | 2.32 |
| LeoVegas | 2.80 | EV+ 8% 3.75 | 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.85 | EV+ 5% 3.65 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 3.06 | EV+ 13% 3.93 | 2.19 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 13:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Midtjylland win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.33 to 2.19 (−6%).
1+12 %
36 %31 %
2.73 → 3.06
X+1 %
27 %22 %
3.88 → 3.93
2-6 %
45 %40 %
2.33 → 2.19
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesViborg 1Draw 3Midtjylland 2
Goals: 9–12 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Midtjylland dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.5 goals per meeting on average.
- Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches.
- Midtjylland have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Viborg
Midtjylland
Viborg (17–8)
Midtjylland (19–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Viborg
Midtjylland
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Viborg
Midtjylland
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viborg | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 22 |
| xPoints | 17.1 | 14 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Viborg | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 389 | 307 |
| Passes against per match | 418 | 314 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.5 | 31 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Viborg | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.7 |
| Other | Viborg | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Kasper Kiilerich (Viborg) | Elias Olafsson (Midtjylland) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 22 |
| Save % | 79% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viborg vs Midtjylland according to our model?
The model gives Midtjylland a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viborg 33%, draw 29%, Midtjylland 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Viborg vs Midtjylland?
The model expects 1.32 goals (xG) for Viborg and 1.39 for Midtjylland, 2.71 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Viborg or draw (1X) 62%, Midtjylland or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.