EFL ChampionshipCarrow Road, Norwich17°23 km/h

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    Norwich CityNorwich CityPossession & high press
    3–4
    Bolton WanderersBolton WanderersPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Norwich City (55%)Best value by the model: 2 · Bolton Wanderers @ 7.30 (+57 %)

    Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers · EFL Championship

    1 · Norwich City 55%X 23%22% Bolton Wanderers · 2

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    Analysis: Norwich City – Bolton Wanderers

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Norwich City's high-pressing style, combined with their possession dominance, has been a key factor in their early season performance. With an xG per match of 1.8, they lead in offensive metrics, reflecting a forward line capable of pressing the opposition into mistakes. Their defensive numbers, however, reveal vulnerabilities, with an xGA of 1.5, which suggests they might concede despite controlling the game.

    Bolton Wanderers, on the other hand, focus on possession control, but with an xG of only 1.1 per match, they struggle to convert possession into clear-cut scoring opportunities. Their defensive concerns are even more pressing, with an xGA of 1.9. This imbalance implies that while they can keep the ball, they are prone to conceding against teams that press high, like Norwich.

    The model assigns a 55% probability to a Norwich win, underscoring the home side's upper hand. The most likely scorelines hover around 1-1 and 2-1, reflecting a potentially tight match but tilting towards the hosts. Given Norwich's xPoints edge (11.5 vs Bolton’s 6.8), the matchup leans in their favor despite the model identifying a 57% probability for over 2.5 goals, suggesting some offensive potency.

    For punters seeking value, the away win at odds of 5.8 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet stands out. The model rates this outcome at 22%, offering a substantial 25% edge against the bookmakers' implied probability. While such a bet aligns with a riskier profile, it presents a clear value opportunity given the disparity between odds and model assessment. Nonetheless, the more conservative play remains backing Norwich's stability and measured expectation of a 2-1 home win.

    Norwich CityNorwich City
    Form WLWWL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #17xT #12xP/match #4Points #14
    Key players
    • Oscar SchwartauLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.09
    • Andre Chance BrooksRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.04
    • Kenny McleanCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
    Bolton WanderersBolton Wanderers
    Form LLLLW
    League ranking xG #18xGA #23xT #21xP/match #23Points #20
    Key players
    • Samuel George DalbyFxG 0.23 · xT -0.02
    • Josh SheehanCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
    • Ethan ErhahonCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    3 – 4
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Norwich City 55% · Draw 23% · Bolton Wanderers 22%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - BoltonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 17,32fair 14,56+19 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - NorwichBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,48fair 6,07-43 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Norwich City – Bolton Wanderers

    Predicted score matrix

    Bolton Wanderers →
    Norwich City →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.4%
    0–15.7%
    0–23.5%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–111.1%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.4%
    2–19.7%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–05.0%
    3–15.9%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–03.4%
    4+–14.0%
    4+–22.3%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.1-26%
    Expected goals
    1,81–1,16
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.69EV+16%
    Over 2,557%
    @1.47

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Norwich City to win55%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.32

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Norwich City to win55%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Mohamed Touré to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Mohamed Touré to score26%
    • Pelle Elkjær Mattsson to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Bolton Wanderers22% probability@7.30BetsafeEV+57%reference odds
    • 2 · Bolton Wanderers22% probability@7.30BetssonEV+57%reference odds
    • 2 · Bolton Wanderers22% probability@7.30NordicbetEV+57%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Norwich CityX2 · Bolton Wanderers
    Betsafe1.42
    EV+ 6%
    4.55
    EV+ 57%
    7.30
    Betsson1.42
    EV+ 6%
    4.55
    EV+ 57%
    7.30
    Nordicbet1.42
    EV+ 6%
    4.55
    EV+ 57%
    7.30
    Pinnacle1.42
    EV+ 20%
    5.15
    EV+ 48%
    6.87

    Odds updated 20 Sept, 11:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Norwich City win since 13 September — the odds have shortened from 1.58 to 1.42 (−10%).

    1-10 %
    69 %59 %

    1.58 → 1.42

    X+18 %
    25 %15 %

    4.35 → 5.15

    2+35 %
    21 %11 %

    5.08 → 6.87

    Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Norwich City
    Bolton Wanderers
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Norwich City (13–13)
    Bolton Wanderers (7–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Norwich City
    Jose Cordoba: 246 passningar, xT 0.41CordobaKenny Mclean: 210 passningar, xT 0.49McleanPelle Mattsson: 203 passningar, xT 0.39MattssonRuairi Mcconville: 202 passningar, xT 0.38McconvilleBen Chrisene: 140 passningar, xT 0.19ChriseneVladan Kovačević: 137 passningar, xT 0.07KovačevićJack Stacey: 98 passningar, xT 0.42StaceyAndre Chance Brooks: 72 passningar, xT 0.07BrooksAnthony Musaba: 57 passningar, xT 0.84MusabaAnis Ben Slimane: 52 passningar, xT 0.12SlimaneKellen Fisher: 52 passningar, xT 0.33Fisher
    Bolton Wanderers
    Josh Sheehan: 231 passningar, xT 0.23SheehanChris Forino: 166 passningar, xT 0.15ForinoMaxwell John Conway: 152 passningar, xT 0.65ConwayEthan Erhahon: 123 passningar, xT 0.07ErhahonLewis Ray Brunt: 114 passningar, xT 0.39BruntBenjamin Keith Davies: 101 passningar, xT 0.02DaviesAkinlolu Richard Olamide Famewo: 98 passningar, xT 0.23FamewoGaizka Larrazabal Goikoetxea: 89 passningar, xT 0.35GoikoetxeaJack Elliott Bonham: 86 passningar, xT 0.2BonhamEoin Toal: 83 passningar, xT 0.1ToalRúben da Rocha Rodrigues: 74 passningar, xT 0.3Rodrigues
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Norwich City
    Jose Cordoba: 246 passningar, xT 0.41CordobaKenny Mclean: 210 passningar, xT 0.49McleanPelle Mattsson: 203 passningar, xT 0.39MattssonRuairi Mcconville: 202 passningar, xT 0.38McconvilleBen Chrisene: 140 passningar, xT 0.19ChriseneVladan Kovačević: 137 passningar, xT 0.07KovačevićJack Stacey: 98 passningar, xT 0.42StaceyAndre Chance Brooks: 72 passningar, xT 0.07BrooksAnthony Musaba: 57 passningar, xT 0.84MusabaAnis Ben Slimane: 52 passningar, xT 0.12SlimaneKellen Fisher: 52 passningar, xT 0.33Fisher
    Bolton Wanderers
    Josh Sheehan: 231 passningar, xT 0.23SheehanChris Forino: 166 passningar, xT 0.15ForinoMaxwell John Conway: 152 passningar, xT 0.65ConwayEthan Erhahon: 123 passningar, xT 0.07ErhahonLewis Ray Brunt: 114 passningar, xT 0.39BruntBenjamin Keith Davies: 101 passningar, xT 0.02DaviesAkinlolu Richard Olamide Famewo: 98 passningar, xT 0.23FamewoGaizka Larrazabal Goikoetxea: 89 passningar, xT 0.35GoikoetxeaJack Elliott Bonham: 86 passningar, xT 0.2BonhamEoin Toal: 83 passningar, xT 0.1ToalRúben da Rocha Rodrigues: 74 passningar, xT 0.3Rodrigues

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNorwich CityBolton Wanderers
    Points97
    xPoints11.56.8
    xG per match1.81.1
    xGA per match1.51.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.240.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.29
    Playing styleNorwich CityBolton Wanderers
    Build-up efficiency0.280.34
    Field tilt0.550.51
    xT per match0.950.79
    xTA per match0.991.2
    Won balls, offensive half2524
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.360.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.26
    Entries into the box per match1111
    Entries into the box against1114
    Pass completion %0.740.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.7
    Passes per match339348
    Passes against per match305313
    Switches of play per match20.830.8
    Long balls per match2836
    Set piecesNorwich CityBolton Wanderers
    xG from free kicks0.010.02
    Corners per match4.96
    Corners against per match55.1
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.350.37
    First touch, defensive corners %0.510.71
    OtherNorwich CityBolton Wanderers
    Throw-in control0.750.74
    The goalkeepersVladan Kovačević (Norwich City)Jack Elliott Bonham (Bolton Wanderers)
    Saves1715
    Save %57%63%
    xG prevented35%44%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Norwich City
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Bolton Wanderers
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers according to our model?

    The model gives Norwich City a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Norwich City 55%, draw 23%, Bolton Wanderers 22%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.