EFL League OneHayes Lane, Bromley21°0,1 mm19 km/h

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    BromleyBromleyLow block & direct
    0–2
    WimbledonWimbledonPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Bromley (50%)

    Bromley – Wimbledon · EFL League One

    1 · Bromley 50%X 26%24% Wimbledon · 2

    Analysis: Bromley – Wimbledon

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Bromley's inclination towards a low defensive block and direct play sets the stage for an intriguing clash against Wimbledon's possession-based style. The numbers lean towards the hosts, with the model giving Bromley a 50% chance of victory compared to Wimbledon's 24%. The expected goals suggest a modest affair, with Bromley predicted to score 1.67 to Wimbledon's 1.13. The hosts' ability to create xG quickly after regaining possession (0.12) hints at their potential threat on the counter.

    Recent form paints a picture of contrasting capacities. Bromley shows an edge in xPoints (4.1) over Wimbledon (3.7), implying they're slightly more effective at converting performances into results. Yet, AFC Wimbledon's superior xGA of 1.4, compared to Bromley's 2.3, highlights their more robust defensive structure. This defensive resilience might keep the visitors in the game longer than the offensive metrics suggest.

    Despite Bromley's statistical advantage, the most likely scoreline per the model remains a narrow 1-1 draw (12%), with 1-0 and 2-1 to the hosts both at 10%. The chances of over 2.5 goals sit at 53%, too close to the threshold to offer a strong lean. However, the 55% probability for both teams to score does suggest potential value in markets expecting action at both ends.

    For bettors searching for value, the 2.80 odds from Betfair on Bromley winning appear enticing, considering their favorable model probabilities and home advantage. The numbers endorse a tight, potentially scrappy win for Bromley, with a 1-0 or 2-1 result aligning with both the expected goals and the match dynamics.

    BromleyBromley
    Form WDLL
    League ranking xG #22xGA #23xT #22xP/match #21Points #19
    Key players
    • Michael CheekFxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
    • Mitchell Bernard PinnockLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
    • Kamil Amadu ContehFxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
    WimbledonWimbledon
    Form LLDWL
    League ranking xG #21xGA #11xT #10xP/match #23Points #17
    Key players
    • Jayden Connor StockleyFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
    • Steven Jeffrey SeddonLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
    • Andrew Kyere YiadomCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
    Final score
    0 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Bromley 50% · Draw 26% · Wimbledon 24%

    Match prediction: Bromley – Wimbledon

    Predicted score matrix

    Wimbledon →
    Bromley →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–16.5%
    0–23.9%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–111.8%
    1–26.5%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.4%
    2–19.6%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–04.7%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.9%
    4+–13.2%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,67–1,13
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @1.81
    Over 2,553%
    @2.05EV+9%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bromley to win50%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.52

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bromley to win50%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Ben Rhys Thompson to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Ben Rhys Thompson to score24%
    • Jake Kenny Reeves to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Bromley50% probability@2.51PinnacleEV+24%reference odds
    • Over 2.553% probability@2.05PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
    • 1 · Bromley50% probability@2.08Betfair ExchangeEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BromleyX2 · Wimbledon
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 3%
    2.08    		2.802.84
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 24%
    2.51    		3.392.82

    Odds updated 7 Sept, 05:17

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    41 %36 %

    2.58 → 2.51

    X-5 %
    30 %25 %

    3.56 → 3.39

    2+10 %
    37 %32 %

    2.56 → 2.82

    Over 2,5+6 %
    51 %46 %

    1.93 → 2.05

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bromley
    Wimbledon
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bromley (4–13)
    Wimbledon (2–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bromley
    Marcus Ifill: 81 passningar, xT 0.26IfillShamal Tyrell George: 72 passningar, xT 0.45GeorgeKamil Amadu Conteh: 63 passningar, xT 0ContehMitchell Bernard Pinnock: 51 passningar, xT 0.42PinnockOmar Sowunmi: 42 passningar, xT 0.17SowunmiWilliam Mbongo Desire Hondermarck: 41 passningar, xT 0.48HondermarckKamarl Grant: 38 passningar, xT 0.03GrantJacob Mendy Mendy: 37 passningar, xT 0.31MendyEthon Emmanuel Archer: 32 passningar, xT 0.09ArcherCorey Whitely: 28 passningar, xT -0.01WhitelyChanse Headman: 27 passningar, xT 0.19Headman
    Wimbledon
    Ryan Anthony Johnson: 141 passningar, xT 0.45JohnsonSteven Jeffrey Seddon: 138 passningar, xT 0.48SeddonDaniel Liam Sweeney: 117 passningar, xT 0.07SweeneyAlistair Oluwashaun Smith: 112 passningar, xT 0.13SmithJames Tilley: 110 passningar, xT 0.6TilleyIsaac Ifeoluwa Foloronso Olushore Ogundere: 106 passningar, xT 0.25OgundereZack Nelson: 84 passningar, xT 0.02NelsonMyles Elliot Zach Hippolyte: 70 passningar, xT 0.58HippolyteJoseph Patrick McDonnell: 49 passningar, xT 0.31McDonnellAndrew Kyere Yiadom: 47 passningar, xT 0.14YiadomZeze Steven Sessegnon: 38 passningar, xT 0.28Sessegnon
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bromley
    Marcus Ifill: 81 passningar, xT 0.26IfillShamal Tyrell George: 72 passningar, xT 0.45GeorgeKamil Amadu Conteh: 63 passningar, xT 0ContehMitchell Bernard Pinnock: 51 passningar, xT 0.42PinnockOmar Sowunmi: 42 passningar, xT 0.17SowunmiWilliam Mbongo Desire Hondermarck: 41 passningar, xT 0.48HondermarckKamarl Grant: 38 passningar, xT 0.03GrantJacob Mendy Mendy: 37 passningar, xT 0.31MendyEthon Emmanuel Archer: 32 passningar, xT 0.09ArcherCorey Whitely: 28 passningar, xT -0.01WhitelyChanse Headman: 27 passningar, xT 0.19Headman
    Wimbledon
    Ryan Anthony Johnson: 141 passningar, xT 0.45JohnsonSteven Jeffrey Seddon: 138 passningar, xT 0.48SeddonDaniel Liam Sweeney: 117 passningar, xT 0.07SweeneyAlistair Oluwashaun Smith: 112 passningar, xT 0.13SmithJames Tilley: 110 passningar, xT 0.6TilleyIsaac Ifeoluwa Foloronso Olushore Ogundere: 106 passningar, xT 0.25OgundereZack Nelson: 84 passningar, xT 0.02NelsonMyles Elliot Zach Hippolyte: 70 passningar, xT 0.58HippolyteJoseph Patrick McDonnell: 49 passningar, xT 0.31McDonnellAndrew Kyere Yiadom: 47 passningar, xT 0.14YiadomZeze Steven Sessegnon: 38 passningar, xT 0.28Sessegnon

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBromleyWimbledon
    Points44
    xPoints4.13.7
    xG per match0.820.84
    xGA per match2.31.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.08
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.680.11
    Playing styleBromleyWimbledon
    Build-up efficiency0.380.33
    Field tilt0.330.54
    xT per match0.620.99
    xTA per match1.21.1
    Won balls, offensive half2733
    Pressing intensity0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency0.290.34
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.3
    Entries into the box per match812
    Entries into the box against1611
    Pass completion %0.550.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.520.67
    Passes per match158287
    Passes against per match383322
    Switches of play per match14.815.6
    Long balls per match3426
    Set piecesBromleyWimbledon
    xG from free kicks0.010.1
    Corners per match2.26
    Corners against per match6.46
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.050.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.460.71
    OtherBromleyWimbledon
    Throw-in control0.740.76
    The goalkeepersShamal Tyrell George (Bromley)Joseph Patrick McDonnell (Wimbledon)
    Saves2711
    Save %68%79%
    xG prevented48%61%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Bromley
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Wimbledon
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bromley vs Wimbledon according to our model?

    The model gives Bromley a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bromley 50%, draw 26%, Wimbledon 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.