01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Burton Albion or draw (1X)71%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL League OnePirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent16°4,6 mm18 km/h
Läs på svenska
Burton AlbionLow block & direct4–1
WimbledonPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Burton Albion (44%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.95 (+8 %)
Burton Albion – Wimbledon · EFL League One
1 · Burton Albion 44%X 30%26% Wimbledon · 2
44%
30%
26%
Analysis: Burton Albion – Wimbledon
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
Burton Albion's direct approach faces a test against Wimbledon's possession-based style. With the hosts holding a 44% probability of winning, as opposed to the visitors' 26%, the model clearly favors Burton. Still, the most likely scoreline, 1-1, hints at a more even contest than the odds suggest. Despite a small head-to-head sample, Burton has won both recent encounters, but those victories weigh less than current form and expected goals.
Burton's 1.50 expected goals against Wimbledon's 1.14 suggests a slight edge for the home side, albeit not a decisive one. Both teams are likely to score, with a 53% probability, dampened somewhat by the forecasted rain which could favor Burton's direct style. The expected goals within eight seconds of winning the ball gives Burton an advantage, highlighting their effectiveness in transition play.
The over 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 49%, suggesting goals may not be scarce. The combination of weather conditions and playing styles could still see a low-scoring affair, nudging the likelihood towards a narrow Burton win or a draw. A 1-0 or 1-1 result feels probable, with the elements making attacking fluidity hard to sustain for either side.
For those seeking value, backing Wimbledon at odds of 3.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet offers a 3% edge over the market. While Burton is favored, the visitors' odds provide a tempting opportunity given the tight nature of the matchup. As the models suggest, there's room for Wimbledon to defy expectations, even if their chances are mathematically slimmer.
Burton AlbionForm DDDWL
League ranking xG #21xGA #11xT #24xP/match #12Points #8
Key players
- Charlie WebsterCAMxG 0.24 · xT -0.02
- Jack ArmerLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
- Matthew Timothy DennisFxG 0.37 · xT 0.08
WimbledonForm WLLDW
League ranking xG #24xGA #17xT #14xP/match #23Points #10
Key players
- Steven Jeffrey SeddonLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
- Jayden Connor StockleyFxG 0.33 · xT 0.05
- Alistair Oluwashaun SmithCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.03
Final score
4 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Burton Albion 44% · Draw 30% · Wimbledon 26%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Burton AlbionBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,80fair 8,78+0 %
HitMatchresultat - AFC WimbledonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,52fair 14,90-9 %
MissMatch prediction: Burton Albion – Wimbledon
Predicted score matrix
Wimbledon →
Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–17.8%
0–24.7%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–010.3%
1–112.6%
1–27.0%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.0%
2–19.1%
2–25.2%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–04.0%
3–14.6%
3–22.6%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.1%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,50–1,14
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.85
Over 2,549%
@2.15EV+4%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Burton Albion or draw (1X)71%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Jake Elliott Beesley to score42%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Jake Elliott Beesley to score42%
- Jake Kenny Reeves to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.527% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- Over 3.527% probability@3.95BetssonEV+8%reference odds
- Over 3.527% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Burton Albion | X | 2 · Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.35 |
| Betsson | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.32 | 3.64 |
Odds updated 2 Sept, 11:36
Odds movement
1+5 %
49 %44 %
2.03 → 2.14
X+1 %
31 %26 %
3.30 → 3.32
20 %
28 %23 %
3.64 → 3.64
Over 2,5+5 %
48 %43 %
2.05 → 2.15
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesBurton Albion 2Draw 0Wimbledon 0
Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Burton Albion
Wimbledon
Burton Albion (4–4)
Wimbledon (1–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Burton Albion
Wimbledon
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Burton Albion
Wimbledon
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Burton Albion | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPoints | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| xG per match | 0.74 | 0.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Burton Albion | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 0.46 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 5 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 233 | 267 |
| Passes against per match | 408 | 316 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.3 | 16.1 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Burton Albion | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 6.7 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.29 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.7 |
| Other | Burton Albion | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Corey Kofi Cheremeh Addai (Burton Albion) | Joseph Patrick McDonnell (Wimbledon) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 9 |
| Save % | 71% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Bradford City – Cambridge United1 September 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wycombe Wanderers – Sheffield Wednesday1 September 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bromley – Leyton Orient1 September 2026 20:45 CEST
- Leicester City – Plymouth Argyle1 September 2026 20:45 CEST
- Peterborough United – Stevenage1 September 2026 20:45 CEST
- Huddersfield Town – Oxford United1 September 2026 20:45 CEST
- Doncaster Rovers – Notts County1 September 2026 20:45 CEST
- Barnsley – Blackpool2 September 2026 20:45 CEST
- Luton Town – Stockport County2 September 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Burton Albion vs Wimbledon according to our model?
The model gives Burton Albion a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burton Albion 44%, draw 30%, Wimbledon 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.