01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Doncaster Rovers or draw (1X)71%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL League OneEco-Power Stadium, Doncaster11°24 km/h
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Doncaster RoversPossession controlvs
Burton AlbionLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Doncaster Rovers (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Burton Albion @ 4.90 (+29 %)
Doncaster Rovers vs Burton Albion · EFL League One
1 · Doncaster Rovers 44%X 30%26% Burton Albion · 2
44%
30%
26%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Doncaster Rovers – Burton Albion
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Two games are hardly enough to draw concrete conclusions, but in the small sample since 2023, Doncaster Rovers have held the upper hand against Burton Albion with a win and a draw. However, the visitors might take solace in their overall better start to the season, standing at 12 points compared to the hosts' 6.
Digging deeper, the expected goals (xG) figures tell a more nuanced story. Doncaster's 1.3 xG per match suggests a team that knows how to create opportunities, while Burton's 0.8 xG reflects a side often on the back foot. Yet, the visitors' slightly superior xPoints of 11.0 over Doncaster's 10.2 show their knack for grinding out results, possibly due to their low defensive setup and direct style.
Expect a game where Doncaster Rovers seek to control possession, but don't anticipate a high-scoring affair. The expected goals for both sides sum up to an expected underwhelming total, making the over 2.5 goals less tempting at just 49%. The model offers a most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13%, followed by a 1-0 win for the hosts at 10%. The probabilities highlight a cautious approach, with both teams to score a slight majority at 53%.
While the model leans towards Doncaster Rovers winning at 44%, the value bet lies elsewhere. With LeoVegas offering odds of 4.0 for a Burton win and 3.5 for a draw, the latter provides a 4% edge in expected value. In a game where the most likely outcomes are narrow margins, backing the draw could be the shrewd choice to pay the bills.
Doncaster RoversForm DDLLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #10xP/match #8Points #21
Key players
- Alfie Ben MayFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03
- Owen John Edward BaileyRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
- Jack Christopher SeniorLWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.19
Burton AlbionForm WDLDW
League ranking xG #24xGA #11xT #24xP/match #14Points #7
Key players
- Caylan VickersFxG 0.18 · xT 0.15
- Charlie WebsterCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.05
- Will CollarFxG 0.03 · xT -0.02
Match prediction: Doncaster Rovers – Burton Albion
Predicted score matrix
Burton Albion →
Doncaster Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–17.9%
0–24.8%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–010.3%
1–112.6%
1–27.0%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.1%
2–25.2%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.9%
3–14.5%
3–22.6%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.2-08%
Expected goals
1,48–1,15
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.98EV+1%
Over 2,549%
@1.78
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Doncaster Rovers or draw (1X)71%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Brandon Alex Graham Hanlan to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- William Guy Collar to score25%
- George Evans to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Burton Albion26% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
- 2 · Burton Albion26% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+29%reference odds
- X · Draw30% probability@3.85LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Doncaster Rovers | X | 2 · Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.65 | EV+ 7% 3.60 | EV+ 29% 4.90 |
| LeoVegas | 1.68 | EV+ 15% 3.85 | EV+ 11% 4.20 |
| Nordicbet | 1.65 | EV+ 7% 3.60 | EV+ 29% 4.90 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 19:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Doncaster Rovers win since 2 October — the odds have shortened from 1.78 to 1.65 (−7%).
1-7 %
56 %51 %
1.78 → 1.65
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.60 → 3.60
2+20 %
24 %19 %
4.10 → 4.90
Over 2,5+2 %
55 %50 %
1.75 → 1.78
Nordicbet · 9 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesDoncaster Rovers 1Draw 1Burton Albion 0
Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Doncaster Rovers
Burton Albion
Doncaster Rovers (8–9)
Burton Albion (13–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Doncaster Rovers
Burton Albion
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Doncaster Rovers
Burton Albion
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Doncaster Rovers | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 12 |
| xPoints | 10.2 | 11 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Doncaster Rovers | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.56 |
| xTA per match | 0.95 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 285 | 253 |
| Passes against per match | 289 | 350 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.9 | 18.5 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Doncaster Rovers | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 3.1 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| Other | Doncaster Rovers | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Tommy James Simkin (Doncaster Rovers) | Corey Kofi Cheremeh Addai (Burton Albion) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 20 |
| Save % | 65% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 32% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Doncaster Rovers vs Burton Albion according to our model?
The model gives Doncaster Rovers a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Doncaster Rovers 44%, draw 30%, Burton Albion 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.