Leicester City vs Stevenage Prediction: Home win 41% (31 Oct 2026)

EFL League One31 October 2026King Power Stadium, Leicester10°13 km/h

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Leicester CityPossession control

StevenagePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Leicester City (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Stevenage @ 4.20 (+32 %)

1 · Leicester City 41%X 27%32% Stevenage · 2

41%

27%

32%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Leicester City vs Stevenage (EFL League One, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Leicester City win 41%, draw 27%, Stevenage win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Leicester City 1.48, Stevenage 1.13. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Leicester City or draw 68%, Stevenage or draw 59%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Leicester City – Stevenage

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The 41% win probability for Leicester City sets the stage for a tight contest against Stevenage. Despite the model favoring the hosts, Stevenage's edge in xPoints at 15.2 compared to Leicester's 12.2 suggests they might have a slight upper hand in overall performance this season. However, Leicester's superior xG per match of 1.6 versus Stevenage's 1.2 indicates a sharper attacking prowess, especially within eight seconds of winning possession, where they also excel.

The most likely scoreline is pegged at 1-1, with a 13% probability reflecting a match that could easily end in a stalemate. The hosts' edge in attacking metrics might see them tip the balance to a narrow 1-0 or a 2-1 win, both plausible scenarios. However, the expected 8.3 mm of rain might dampen goal-scoring opportunities, possibly favoring a tighter, low-scoring game, although this factor has been considered in the model's numbers.

For those scouring for value, Stevenage's 32% win probability versus odds that might underrate their chances due to Leicester's home advantage could present an interesting opportunity. Bookmakers offering competitive odds on a Stevenage upset might be worth a closer look. Keep an eye on the weather's impact, but this matchup leans slightly towards Leicester, with under 2.5 goals a marginally safer bet.

Leicester City

Form WDLWW

League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #2xP/match #19Points #10

Key players

Memeh Caleb OkoliCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
Luke Jonathan ThomasLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.18
Louis PageCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.11

Stevenage

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #18xGA #4xT #19xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Carl PiergianniCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Luther James WildinRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Saxon Owen EarleyLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Leicester City – Stevenage

Predicted score matrix

Stevenage →

Leicester City →

0–07.7%

0–18.0%

0–24.7%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–010.5%

1–112.7%

1–27.0%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.0%

2–19.1%

2–25.1%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.0%

3–14.5%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,48–1,13

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.02EV+2%

Over 2,548%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Leicester City or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Leicester City or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Emil Riis Jakobsen to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Emil Riis Jakobsen to score26%
John David Lundstram to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Stevenage32% probability@4.20LeoVegasEV+32%reference odds
2 · Stevenage32% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
2 · Stevenage32% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+24%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Leicester City	X	2 · Stevenage
Betsafe	1.88	3.45	EV+ 24% 3.95
LeoVegas	1.73	EV+ 2% 3.75	EV+ 32% 4.20
Nordicbet	1.88	3.45	EV+ 24% 3.95

Odds updated 25 Oct, 09:36

Odds movement

1-8 %

56 %46 %

1.88 → 1.73

X+6 %

30 %20 %

3.55 → 3.75

2+17 %

29 %19 %

3.60 → 4.20

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Leicester City

Stevenage

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Leicester City (16–15)

Stevenage (15–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Leicester City

Stevenage

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Leicester City

Stevenage

The teams in numbers

Performance	Leicester City	Stevenage
Points	15	15
xPoints	12.2	15.2
xG per match	1.6	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.23

Playing style	Leicester City	Stevenage
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.65	0.45
xT per match	1.3	0.82
xTA per match	0.64	0.85
Won balls, offensive half	18	33
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.35
Entries into the box per match	16	12
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.81	0.63
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.59
Passes per match	538	234
Passes against per match	218	327
Switches of play per match	16.7	22.2
Long balls per match	22	38

Set pieces	Leicester City	Stevenage
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.07
Corners per match	6.6	3.8
Corners against per match	5.8	5.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.58

Other	Leicester City	Stevenage
Throw-in control	0.75	0.74

The goalkeepers	Alex Simon McCarthy (Leicester City)	Terence Owen Vancooten (Stevenage)
Saves	27	10
Save %	68%	100%
xG prevented	44%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Leicester City

Fixtures, form & tips

Stevenage

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Leicester City vs Stevenage according to our model?

The model gives Leicester City a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leicester City 41%, draw 27%, Stevenage 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Leicester City vs Stevenage?

The model expects 1.48 goals (xG) for Leicester City and 1.13 for Stevenage, 2.61 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Leicester City or draw (1X) 68%, Stevenage or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.