01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Stockport County to win74%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
EFL League OneEdgeley Park, Stockport11°1,1 mm12 km/h
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Stockport CountyPossession & high pressvs
WimbledonLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Stockport County (74%)
Stockport County vs Wimbledon · EFL League One
1 · Stockport County 74%X 17%9% Wimbledon · 2
74%
17%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Stockport County vs Wimbledon (EFL League One, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Stockport County win 74%, draw 17%, Wimbledon win 9%. Expected goals (xG): Stockport County 2.54, Wimbledon 0.72. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Stockport County or draw 91%, Wimbledon or draw 26%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Stockport County – Wimbledon
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Stockport County's recent surge of four consecutive victories sets the stage as they host a struggling AFC Wimbledon, who are on a three-match losing streak. The hosts' form is not just impressive; it is dominant, amplified by their ability to control possession and press high, suffocating opponents. Meanwhile, Wimbledon leans heavily on a low defensive block and direct play, a style that appears increasingly fraught against a side like Stockport, who thrive on possession and creating chances.
The numbers underline a clear disparity. Stockport's expected goals (xG) metrics reveal a side that routinely generates 2.1 xG per match, indicating not only a proficiency in creating scoring opportunities but also the potential for multiple goals in any fixture. In stark contrast, Wimbledon's xG hovers just below 1, a figure that speaks to a lack of creativity and finishing prowess, which are vital for turning games around, especially away from home.
With model probabilities strongly favoring Stockport at 74% to win, and the most likely scorelines being 2-0 or 3-0, the expectation is for a controlled and comprehensive home victory. The small sample size of two head-to-heads since 2023, both won by Stockport, punctuates their current superiority but weighs less than the form and xG data. However, such dominance in recent encounters cannot be entirely dismissed, suggesting a psychological edge as well.
The weather, with 13.0 mm of rain expected, could dampen the goal tally, but Stockport’s ability to maintain pressure should still see them capitalize on any defensive lapses. Given the over 2.5 goals probability at 63%, and both teams to score just under 50%, the lean is towards a higher-scoring match, albeit potentially one-sided.
For those seeking value, a pinpoint opportunity lies with Bet365 offering Stockport at 1.40. While not the highest return, it aligns with a solid, low-risk approach, as the hosts appear poised to extend their winning run against a Wimbledon side struggling to find form.
Stockport CountyForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #1xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Kyle WoottonFxG 0.64 · xT -0.03
- Lewis BateCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
- Oliver NorwoodCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.17
WimbledonForm DDLLL
League ranking xG #22xGA #20xT #14xP/match #22Points #16
Key players
- Steven Jeffrey SeddonLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
- Jayden Connor StockleyFxG 0.27 · xT 0.02
- James TilleyRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.28
Match prediction: Stockport County – Wimbledon
Predicted score matrix
Wimbledon →
Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.1%
0–12.6%
0–21.0%
0–30.2%
0–4+0.0%
1
1–09.6%
1–17.2%
1–22.5%
1–30.6%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–012.4%
2–18.9%
2–23.2%
2–30.8%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–010.5%
3–17.5%
3–22.7%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–012.2%
4+–18.8%
4+–23.1%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.3-011%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.3-18%
Expected goals
2,54–0,72
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.65
Over 2,563%
@1.46
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Stockport County to win74%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Kyle Leon Wootton to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Kyle Leon Wootton to score39%
- Alistair Oluwashaun Smith to be booked23%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Stockport County | X | 2 · Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.28 | 5.25 | 8.80 |
| LeoVegas | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.28 | 5.25 | 8.80 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 09:36
Odds movement
1-5 %
74 %69 %
1.32 → 1.25
X+10 %
20 %15 %
5.00 → 5.50
2+27 %
13 %8 %
7.50 → 9.50
LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesStockport County 2Draw 0Wimbledon 0
Goals: 5–0 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.
Key facts
- Stockport County come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- AFC Wimbledon have lost 3 in a row.
- Stockport County win 63% of their home matches all-time (54 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Stockport County
Wimbledon
Stockport County (23–11)
Wimbledon (7–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Stockport County
Wimbledon
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Stockport County
Wimbledon
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Stockport County | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 22 | 12 |
| xPoints | 18.3 | 11.5 |
| xG per match | 2.1 | 0.98 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Stockport County | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.66 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 513 | 255 |
| Passes against per match | 303 | 319 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.7 | 12.1 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Stockport County | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 7.3 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 3.6 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| Other | Stockport County | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Oliver Whatmuff (Stockport County) | Josef John Bursik (Wimbledon) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 32 |
| Save % | 68% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 66% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Wigan Athletic – Bromley31 October 2026
- Barnsley – Oxford United31 October 2026
- Milton Keynes Dons – Doncaster Rovers31 October 2026
- Leicester City – Stevenage31 October 2026
- Peterborough United – Luton Town31 October 2026
- Leyton Orient – Cambridge United31 October 2026
- Plymouth Argyle – Reading31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Bradford City – Huddersfield Town31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Wycombe Wanderers – Burton Albion31 October 2026 16:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Stockport County vs Wimbledon according to our model?
The model gives Stockport County a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stockport County 74%, draw 17%, Wimbledon 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Stockport County vs Wimbledon?
The model expects 2.54 goals (xG) for Stockport County and 0.72 for Wimbledon, 3.25 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Stockport County or draw (1X) 91%, Wimbledon or draw (X2) 26% and no draw (12) 83%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.